Alex Rodriguez Archives - Page 2 of 108

Saturday Links: Judge, Prospects, Beltran, A-Rod, Spring BP

February 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

In case you missed it yesterday, I posted my annual Top 30 Prospects list. Over 10,000 words of prospect goodness. Don’t miss it. Here are some other links to check out on the penultimate Saturday without baseball until November.

Judge tops graduated prospects list

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen put together a graduated prospects list earlier this week, which is essentially a ranking of players who lost their prospect eligibility this year. The MLB rookie limits are 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time outside September. Four Yankees made the list. Here are their rankings:

1. Aaron Judge (80 Present Value, 80 Future Value)
18. Jordan Montgomery (50 PV, 55 FV)
21. Chad Green (50 PV, 55 FV)
28. Clint Frazier (45 PV, 50 FV)

Green technically lost his rookie eligibility in 2016, though within the write-up McDaniel and Longenhagen say they included Green because he still had an “evolving” role. Also, they only ranked the 46 players they consider to have 50 FV or better, so Tyler Wade didn’t make it. *shakes fist*

Anyway, those grades are on the 20-80 scouting scale, so 50 is average and 80 is top of the line. Judge is a star. We didn’t need a 20-80 grade to know that. Cody Bellinger is the only other player on the list with even a 70 FV. The 80 FV essentially means McDaniel and Longenhagen project Judge to continue being this damn good going forward. Sign me the hell up.

Yankees offered Beltran front office job

In a recent episode of the R2C2 podcast, Carlos Beltran confirmed the Yankees offered him a position in the organization after naming Aaron Boone their new manager. Pete Caldera says it was a special assistant/special advisor role. Beltran declined because he wants to take a year off and spend time with his family. He’s been playing professional baseball since 1995. Can’t say I blame him for wanting to take a break.

The Yankees hired Hideki Matsui as a special advisor shortly after he retired — his official title is special advisor to the general manager — and his duties include working his prospects, among other things. Matsui and Beltran are similar. They’re both very well respected, they went out of their way to work with young players during their playing careers, and they have a lot of knowledge to share. Latin American players look up to Beltran. He has a lot to offer an organization. I imagine the Yankees will welcome him with open arms whenever he wants to get back into baseball.

Hal talking to A-Rod about role with Yankees

Grandy and A-Rod, together again. (Harry How/Getty)

According to Brendan Kuty, Hal Steinbrenner has spoken to Alex Rodriguez about his role with the Yankees going forward. Hal said the talks have been “very positive,” but he wants to keep them “private” for now. After being released in August 2016, A-Rod worked for the Yankees as a special advisor through the end of his player contract this season. He worked with their young players and things like that.

Alex has an awful lot going on right now between his new ESPN Sunday Night Baseball gig and postseason coverage with FOX, plus all the jet-setting with Jennifer Lopez. It may seem A-Rod won’t have enough time for the Yankees, but man, he loves baseball, and I think he wants to remain in the game in some capacity, beyond broadcasting. Another special advisor role to work with prospects in Tampa a few times a year makes too much sense not to happen.

Yankees will let fans watch batting practice this spring

Fans will get to see the Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton batting practice show this spring. Earlier this week the Yankees announced they will open the gates at George M. Steinbrenner Field three hours prior to first pitch this spring, one hour earlier than usual. That will give fans enough time to see the home team take batting practice. Here is the announcement from the Steinbrenner Field website:

The much anticipated 2018 Yankees Spring Training just got a little bit better. Steinbrenner Field will officially be opening 3 hours before game time (e.g. 1:05 p.m. game time, gates open at 10:05 a.m. to the public) so fans can experience the Yankees batting-practice action. Fans, be prepared to see your favorite players like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton taking BP and remember to bring your glove in case you get lucky!

As someone who’s seen Judge and Stanton take batting practice a bunch of times, I assure you it is worth the price of admission. Effortless power. Both of them. They put on a show. Anyway, it’s unclear whether the Yankees will open the gates an hour earlier during he regular season as well. For now it is Spring Training only. I imagine there are some logistical issues to work out for the regular season (the ballpark has to be staffed, etc.), though maybe once or twice a homestand? That’d be cool.

Half Retro: An Appreciation of the 2008 New York Yankees

February 4, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

2008 was a year of transition in many ways. The latter portion was the beginning of my senior year of college. It was an election year. It was also the first year since 1995 that someone other than Joe Torre was the Yankee manager, as well as the first year since 1993–strike in 1994 notwithstanding–that the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs. It was the last year in Yankee Stadium II. It was their “worst” year in a long time, and they still won 89 games.

As he usually was around this time, Alex Rodriguez–coming off one of the best Yankee seasons in history–was the team’s offensive leader. He was second in average, first in OBP, slugging (also led the entire AL at .573), RBI, etc. Hefinished eighth in AL MVP voting. Dustin Pedroia was that year’s winner at 6.8 bWAR; A-Rod clocked in at 6.8, beating all MVP placers (tied with Cliff Lee). He only played in 138 games that year and had 143 PA fewer than Pedroia.

Ironically–we’ll get to why later–this team had two pitching standouts, Mike Mussina (in his final year) and Mariano Rivera. Both finished in the top for the Cy Young voting–Mo fifth and Moose tied for sixth with Ervin Santana. Rivera’s ERA (1.40) was the second lowest of his career. His ERA+ (316!) was the best of his career, as was his 0.665 (!!) WHIP and his 12.83 (!!!) K/BB. He was 38 years old. And still had years left in the tank. These numbers, in retrospect, perfectly capture Mariano Rivera’s career. Sure, relievers put up gaudy numbers all the time, but these ones just stand out so much, just like Rivera does among relief pitchers. He wasn’t always the best reliever in a given year, but he did it over almost 20 seasons, something no one else is likely to replicate any time soon.

Mike Mussina’s 2008, his final year, was a perfect exit. It was a bounceback from a miserable 2007 and was his best year as a Yankee since his first year back in 2001. He finished in the top ten in bWAR (7); wins (2); WHIP (10); BB/9 (2); K/BB (4); ERA+ (5); ERA (6); and FIP (5). A great year by a great pitcher who’ll hopefully be a Hall of Famer this time next year.

Those three examples are typical–great players doing great things. But that’s not really the story of the 2008 Yankees. The story of the 2008 Yankees is one of frustration, just as much as it was one about transition. Robinson Cano had a terrible first half. Derek Jeter refused to take time off after Daniel Cabrera broke his hand with a pitch. Richie Sexson, Morgan Ensberg, Chad Moeller, and Justin Christian were guys on this team. They traded for Xavier Nady. Jose Molina and the corpse of Ivan Rodriguez did most of the catching. Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner started 35 (!) games between the two of them. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes were putrid. Joba Chamberlain got hurt. And Chein Ming Wang’s career essentially ended on June 15, 2008—my 21st birthday. And despite all that, the Yankees won 89 games. Were they in the AL Central, they would’ve tied for the lead in the division. Had the current playoff system existed, they would’ve played the Red Sox (95 wins) in the one game playoff.

Think about that for a moment. A team that had Sir Sidney and Darrell Rasner start 35 games won almost 90 games. Missing the playoffs was frustrating, sure, but this was a sure sign that Joe Girardi was going to be a solid manager who could get the most–or close to it–out of his teams. This is what makes looking back on this team just as fond as it is frustrating. While they didn’t really get anywhere or accomplish anything, they made the best of a whole lot of bad situations and managed to be respectable when they could have easily not been at all. Aside from Mike Mussina’s swan song, not much will stand out about 2008 ten years from now. It’s not likely to be a season I tell my son all about. But it was an important year that marked the end of an era for a team and ushered in something new that we all love today.

Saturday Links: Captain’s Camp, Farm System Ranks, A-Rod

January 27, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Less than four weeks until the start of the Grapefruit League season. The Yankees will play their first spring game in three weeks and six days. I can’t wait. I’m getting really antsy for baseball, especially after this mostly lame offseason. Anywhere, here are some bits of news to check out.

Yankees second in Law’s farm system rankings

A few days after posting his top 100 prospects list, Keith Law (subs. req’d) released his annual farm system rankings. The Braves, who have been tanking pretty hard for a few years now, claim the top spot. The Yankees are second. They’re just ahead of the Padres, who are also tanking pretty hard. Being a World Series contender with a great farm system is better than tanking to have a great farm system, if you ask me. Anyway, here is Law’s write-up:

The brilliance of Brian Cashman has been in how he has deployed the products of his farm system to bolster the big league club while holding on to the core guys. In another era, Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez or Luis Severino would have been used to trade for established veterans, but Cashman has held on to the right guys — you might even argue he has been too conservative in trading prospects, but I doubt Yankees fans would complain right now. Even in trades for Giancarlo Stanton and three players from the White Sox at the deadline, the Yankees have kept their top tier of prospects intact. The result is a system with five guys in the top 100, three more with strong cases and continued depth for future acquisitions.

Keep in mind the Yankees rank second despite losing a lot of talent within the last 18 months or so. Judge, Sanchez, Clint Frazier, and Jordan Montgomery all graduated to the big leagues since August 2016. Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, and Blake Rutherford were all traded away. That’s a lot of good prospects leaving the farm system! But they left for good reasons — they’re contributing to the MLB team either directly (on the roster) or indirectly (as trade chips) — and the Yankees still have a very good farm system. Pretty rad.

Captain’s Camp is underway (I think)

It appears this year’s edition of Captain’s Camp is now underway. The Yankees haven’t officially announced the start of Captain’s Camp — that’s not unusual, they’ve never announced anything about it — but several prospects have been in Tampa for a few weeks now based on their Twitter feeds, including Gleyber Torres and Justus Sheffield. Even guys who report to Spring Training early don’t show up that early, and this is the time of year the Yankees have held Captain’s Camp in the past, so yeah.

“Last season, we really started to see production from a lot of different guys that came through the system and had success. Now we have to keep it going,” said new farm director Kevin Reese to Dan Martin, who confirmed a bunch of prospects are already in Tampa. Captain’s Camp was a Gary Denbo creation designed to not only help prospects work on their game, but also bring them together to build relationships and foster leadership. I’m glad to see the Yankees are still doing it even after Denbo left, assuming they are actually doing it and not simply bringing guys to Tampa for super early work.

A-Rod joining Sunday Night Baseball

Once again, Alex Rodriguez is replacing Aaron Boone. Earlier this week ESPN announced A-Rod is joining their new Sunday Night Baseball booth. It’ll be A-Rod, Jessica Mendoza, and Matt Vasgersian. Rodriguez will also do some special event work with ESPN, and continue his postseason work with FOX. (Vasgersian will continue his MLB Network work as well.)

“I’m looking forward to this new chapter in my broadcasting career. It’s an exciting time in baseball and now I get that front row seat to tell that story every Sunday night on ESPN,” said A-Rod in a statement. Kinda remarkable how Alex has gone from hated player to beloved broadcaster, isn’t it? Watch, A-Rod won’t get into the Hall of Fame as a player because of the performance-enhancing drug stuff, but will one day win the Hall of Fame’s Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasting excellence. That’d be a hoot.

Quick Notes: Managerial Search, Shohei Ohtani, Non-Tenders

December 1, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

This morning Brian Cashman took a practice run rappelling down the Landmark Building in Stamford as part of the annual Heights & Lights Festival. He also spoke to reporters and passed along two important pieces of information, one surprising and one not so surprising. Here’s the latest, via all the wonderful reporters in attendance.

Managerial interviews are over

First the surprising news: Cashman said the Yankees will not interview any more managerial candidates. The job will go to one of the six men they’ve interviewed: Carlos Beltran, Aaron Boone, Hensley Meulens, Rob Thomson, Eric Wedge, and Chris Woodward. (Mark Feinsand says a clear frontrunner emerged during the interview process.) Furthermore, Cashman said there will not be a second round of interviews in Tampa. The next step is making a final recommendation to Hal Steinbrenner and that’ll be that.

Also, interestingly enough, Cashman said he consulted Alex Rodriguez several times during the process. A-Rod didn’t want the job — “He never expressed interest in any way, shape, or form,” said Cashman — but Cashman said he got Alex’s insight on the various candidates. A-Rod and Beltran are super close. The fact this is all suddenly wrapping up, with the second round of interviews canceled, right after Beltran’s interview is intriguing. Coincidence? Maybe. But intriguing. Anyway, a poll:

Who should be the next Yankees manager?

Yankees will pursue Shohei Ohtani

Now the not-so-surprising news: the Yankees will indeed pursue Ohtani, Cashman confirmed. They are prepared to let him both pitch and hit, which seems like a prerequisite for signing him. Here’s a snippet of what Cashman said about Ohtani:

“It’s a big stage here and it’s meant to have the best talent to play on it. Ohtani represents the next great talent that is available in the world of baseball. This stage is made for players like this … This is an impact type player that we feel would make us better. I think we have a great situation going on here with a lot of young players … I think he’d be a perfect fit for us.”

Ohtani was officially posted earlier today, and already there are some wild rumors floating around. He’s narrowed his list down to three teams! He doesn’t want to play with another Japanese star! I get the sense we’re going to hear lots more stuff like that over the next three weeks. For now, all we know for certain is that Ohtani has been posted, and Cashman said the Yankees will pursue him.

Yankees tender all eligible players

One last quick note: the Yankees tendered all their eligible players contracts prior to today’s deadline, the team announced. Can’t say I’m surprised. Austin Romine was the only real non-tender candidate and I never thought the Yankees would actually non-tender him, and they didn’t, so there you go.

Manager & Coaching Staff Notes: Espada, Hairston, Ibanez

November 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Espada and his new shortstop. (Elsa/Getty)

One week ago today we learned the Yankees had parted ways with Joe Girardi. And since then, we haven’t heard a peep about potential managerial candidates or interviews. Part of me wonders if we’re in for an out of nowhere hire. Know how Brian Cashman tends to make surprise trades with little to no rumors? What if the manager search happens in secret and one day they just announce a hire? That’d be something. Anyway, here’s the latest managerial and coaching staff news.

Espada joining the Astros

Yankees third base coach Joe Espada is now former Yankees third base coach Joe Espada. Espada will join the Astros as their new bench coach, reports Marly Rivera. Alex Cora, Houston’s former bench coach, is leaving to take over as Red Sox manager. Espada, whose contract expired earlier this week, also interviewed to be Cora’s bench coach in Boston.

Espada, 42, had been New York’s third base coach the last three years, and prior to that he worked in the front office as a special assistant to Cashman. It’s unclear whether the Yankees ever seriously considered Espada for their managerial opening. He’s young, he’s into analytics, he’s bilingual, and he’s already close to the young players in the organization. Seemed like a potential fit.

Hairston a managerial candidate

A few days ago it was reportedly Jerry Hairston Jr. is a potential managerial candidate for the Yankees, and now it is confirmed. Mark Feinsand reports Hairston is indeed in the mix. It’s no longer speculation or conjecture. Hairston played 16 seasons in the big leagues, including the second half of the 2009 season with the Yankees. He’s been working as a television analyst the last few years.

Hairston, now 41, has zero coaching or managerial experience. He grew up around the game — his father, grandfather, uncle, and brother all played in the big leagues — and he certainly spent enough time in the clubhouse as a player, though we know nothing about his skills as a manager. Is he a good communicator? How well-versed is he in analytics? How’s his feel for the game? The numbers may say one thing, but your eyes may tell you another. Is he adaptable? No one really knows.

Ibanez wants to stay with Dodgers

According Jon Heyman, the Yankees like Raul Ibanez as a managerial candidate, though word is he wants to stay with the Dodgers in his current front office role. Also, Heyman says the Yankees have a list of about 20-25 managerial candidates. Hooray for casting a wide net. Here’s my list of candidates, which runs 24 names deep.

The 45-year-old Ibanez has long been considered a future coach or manager because he’s a smart guy, he’s hard-working, and because he was such a strong leader and clubhouse presence during his playing days. Ken Davidoff wrote a good piece explaining Ibanez’s qualifications recently. At the same time, Ibanez has no coaching or managerial experience. I’m not sure I love the idea of bringing in a rookie skipper to work with this team.

Hal will discuss future plans with A-Rod

Now that the 2017 season over, so to is Alex Rodriguez’s monster ten-year, $275M contract. The Yankees of course released A-Rod last year, though his contract ran through this season, so the team still had to pay him his $21M salary in 2017. Rodriguez spent the year as a part-time instructor with the Yankees and worked specifically with their young players, at least when he wasn’t doing television work with FOX or hanging out with Jennifer Lopez.

Anyway, according to Dan Martin, Hal Steinbrenner plans to reach out to A-Rod to determine the next step in their relationship. “Haven’t talked to him yet about his plans for next year … I will though. He seems to really enjoy working with our young players,” said Hal. I’m not gonna lie, I assumed the only reason the Yankees kept A-Rod around as an instructor was because they were still paying him this year, and they wanted to get something back from that investment. Now that his contract his up, will they really keep this going? We’ll see.

Wednesday Notes: Astros, Nats, Quintana, Prospects, A-Rod

March 15, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees return to television tonight with a home game against the Phillies, thankfully. We haven’t seen them play since Saturday. Tonight’s game will start at 6:35pm ET and we’ll have a regular game thread at that time. Here are some bits of news to check out in the meantime.

Yankees scouted Astros, Nationals

According to Brendan Kuty, the Yankees had scout (Matt Daley!) in Port St. Lucie over the weekend when the Astros and Nationals visited the Mets. Righty Joe Musgrove started for Houston on Friday while righty Erick Fedde was on the mound for Washington on Saturday. Both pitchers allowed one hit and one walk in three scoreless innings in their outings. Musgrove struck out four. Fedde fanned one.

The Yankees have been connected to both Musgrove and Fedde over the last year or so, but only through speculation. Not hard “they want this guy” rumors. Musgrove was mentioned as a possible target during Brian McCann trade talks (I even wrote a Scouting The Market post) while Fedde’s name came up as a potential piece in an Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman trade at least year’s deadline. Obviously neither deal came to fruition.

We could connect some serious dots here. The Astros are said to want another high-end starting pitcher, and with Masahiro Tanaka’s opt-out looming, could the Yankees move him? The Nationals don’t have a closer right now and gosh, Dellin Betances sure makes sense for them, no? That said, teams scout either other all the time, and this could be nothing. Still, with the Yankees perpetually seeking young controllable pitching, this report sure is interesting.

Nothing happening with Quintana

According to Jack Curry (video link), the Yankees have “nothing simmering, nothing very hot going on right now” with regards to trade talks with the White Sox about Jose Quintana. Quintana is very much available and last week we heard the White Sox have been scouting the Yankees this spring. See? Teams scout each other all the time. Anyway, point is there’s nothing imminent here, which isn’t surprising.

Quintana started against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic last week and was masterful, taking a no-hitter into the sixth before allowing a two-out single and hitting his pitch count. (The bullpen then blew it.) That said, Quintana’s stock didn’t go up or anything. Teams know he’s good. The only way one game can change a veteran pitcher’s trade stock is if he gets hurt. My guess is the White Sox will ramp up their efforts to trade Quintana pretty soon, before he goes all Tyson Ross on them or something.

FanGraphs releases top Yankees prospects, top 100 prospects lists

Over at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen recently released his top 33 Yankees prospects list as well as his top 100 prospects list for all of baseball. White Sox IF Yoan Moncada claims the top spot on the top 100. Here are the eight Yankees in the top 100:

7. SS Gleyber Torres
34. OF Clint Frazier
40. OF Blake Rutherford
53. RHP James Kaprielian
61. OF Aaron Judge
87. OF Dustin Fowler
91. SS Jorge Mateo
97. LHP Justus Sheffield

This is the only top 100 list Fowler has made this year. Interesting. As for the top 33 Yankees prospects list, gosh, it’s massive. I still haven’t finished reading the entire thing. I’m doing it bit by bit. The write-up covers 68 players total. 68!

“Fawning over the system’s obvious talent ignores its most fascinating aspect: the bizarre collection of pop-up arms. New York appears to be in possession of a player-development machine that has conjured several interesting pitching prospects seemingly out of thin air,” says the write-up, referring to guys like Jordan Montgomery, Chance Adams, and Chad Green, all of whom came to the Yankees as okay prospects and have since seen their stock rise considerably. Now hopefully some of these guys will turn into productive big leaguers.

A-Rod joins FOX full-time

Alex Rodriguez is officially a full-time broadcaster. Last week FOX announced A-Rod has joined the network and will “serve as a game analyst for select FOX MLB SATURDAY telecasts as well as feature reporter for FOX’s MLB pregame coverage and FS1 studio show MLB WHIPAROUND,” according to the press release. It doesn’t sound like he will be in the broadcast booth, does it? Sounds like a studio gig.

FOX owns a big chunk of the YES Network following the News Corp. deal a few years back, though it doesn’t sound like there will be any crossover work here. A-Rod will be on FOX and FOX Sports 1. Not YES. Lame. I assume Alex will continue his special advisor duties with the Yankees in the meantime. His agreement with the club called for him to remain in that role through the end of this year. Either way, A-Rod was really good on television the last two postseasons, and it was only a matter of time until some network scooped him up.

MLB approves wearable biometric device

For the first time MLB has approved a wearable on-field biometric device for players, reports Darren Rovell. The device, which is made by a company called WHOOP, is meant to be worn all day and night, and will record data on sleep, heart rate, recovery, strain, etc. It is not a mandated piece of equipment and teams can’t force their players to wear the WHOOP device. It is the player’s decision given the private data involved.

Clubs have been studying pitcher deliveries using biometrics for years now, though the WHOOP device extends beyond that. Teams are focusing more and more on rest and recovery, because nowadays having the most talent isn’t enough. You need the most talented players performing at their best as often as possible. Rest and recovery are part of that. The Yankees start their Spring Training workouts later in the morning to give players time to sleep in, plus they’ve looked for ways to improve travel in recent years too. I wonder how many players will wear the WHOOP device. It seems like the data could be really useful.

Even in worst case, Holliday an improvement over 2016 DH situation

March 7, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

alex-rodriguez-matt-holliday-getty-split-slide — (Getty)

On Friday, Domenic raised the interesting question of whether the Yankees jumped the gun in signing Matt Holliday. While he was cheaper in total cash outlay than Kendrys Morales, he earned substantially more than some other DH options, including Chris Carter, who the Yankees still signed on top of Holliday.

But there’s one thing that I think is without a doubt: Holliday brings more to the table than 2016 Alex Rodriguez (duh) and will bring a substantial improvement in the Yankees’ DH situation this season, even in the worst case scenario. Yet how much Holliday will bring in surplus value is another question entirely (and whether it is worth $13 million is an extra question on top of that).

If we’re going to get into how much extra value he’ll bring, first you need to set the baseline: A-Rod’s 2016 season. Man, that was just a huge disappointment. His 2015 season was perfect in many regards considering expectations and then he came back with a complete dud, failing to reach 700 home runs and getting a barely ceremonious release in August. In total, A-Rod hit .200/.247/.351 (56 wRC+) in just 243 plate appearances.

Because he played in just 65 games, that opened up nearly 90 games worth of DH at-bats (remember: 10 games in National League parks with pitchers hitting). Therefore, the baseline isn’t entirely Rodriguez. His general ineptitude opened the door for DH starts for many players. Carlos Beltran (148), Brian McCann (122), Gary Sanchez (72), Billy Butler (20) and Mark Teixeira (16) all got at least 15 plate appearances without needing to take the field.

While A-Rod having more success would have benefited the Yankees’ win-loss record, it would have hurt Sanchez’s development time or cut in further to McCann’s at-bats when Sanchez was called up. It also means the Yankees likely don’t sign Butler (probably a good development), Beltran is slightly less productive with the extra need to play the field and Aaron Hicks receives less of a chance to develop with Beltran taking starts away in right field. All of that is to say A-Rod’s struggles and eventual release opened the door for some strong positives for the Yankees.

As a whole, the Yankees’ designated hitter ‘position’ produced a paltry -1.5 bWAR, the worst in baseball. The position, in 642 plate appearances, had a .261/.312/.450 line. They also had -2.0 WAR in right field, which was in part due to Beltran only getting 232 plate appearances there.

I see very few scenarios where the Yankees post that poor a performance at DH in 2017, mostly thanks to Holliday. This factors in the idea that last season was likely the worst of his career and he seems to be on the decline. After all, he is 37 years old and can’t be far from retirement. Still, despite the decline, he still hit .246/.322/.461 (109 wRC+), which isn’t outstanding but certainly above average. He produced the lowest WAR of his career (0.7 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR) and the Cardinals as a team had a -1.4 WAR in left field with Holliday getting most of the at-bats there.

However, any comparison between Holliday’s performance totals last year and potential performance this year needs to factor in his defense. He was dreadful in left field last season while starting 82 games there and his fielding likely is a big factor in the -1.4 WAR for the Cards. Barring a rash of injuries, the Yankees don’t have to worry about the seven-time All-Star as anything but a hitter. If he is playing the field on anything of a regular basis, this whole post is thrown out the window because something has gone seriously wrong in the Bronx.

Assuming Holliday is able to stick to DH and maybe, just maybe, a few games in the field during National League play, there’s a solid chance he’s much healthier than towards the end of his time in St. Louis. He only played 183 games combined over the last two seasons and the injuries no doubt affected him at the plate. If he only needs to focus on his bat and doesn’t need to expend energy in the field, he should be a healthier and, therefore, better version of what he’d otherwise be in 2017.

And that leads to some optimistic projections for 2017 from Steamer and PECOTA.

ZiPS: .244/.325/.447 with 14 HR in 329 PA
Steamer: .271/.357.470 with 21 HR in 505 PA
PECOTA: .262/.352/.447 with 19 HR in 495 PA

ZiPS, as you can see, projects Holliday to continue his decline. That’s not unreasonable. All three systems had A-Rod hitting a lot better last season than he did but still had him declining, and sometimes an older hitter just falls off in an instant. Declines aren’t always gradual.

The best case scenario for Holliday is something along the lines of A-Rod’s 2015 season. That’ll happen if he stays healthy and really takes to the DH role. There are some signs pointing to this type of bounce back. Holliday was better in the second half last season. He also was at his best (.368/.385/.868 with five HR) in his eight games as the Cardinals’ DH. Holliday also gets the chance to play 81 games in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

In this type of scenario, Holliday could anchor the Yankees’ lineup and warrant consideration to bring him back in 2018. The most likely case — a slightly above average but not great Holliday — is still a welcome improvement over last season and would bring stability to DH.

But there is the worst case scenario and ZiPS hints at it. However, I’d argue even the worst case with Holliday is still better than the Bombers’ 2016 DH situation. On one hand, you have Holliday getting injured. That’s not such a big deal for the team for two reasons; The Yankees have Chris Carter as a ready-made replacement and could also hand at-bats to developing younger players like Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge, etc. Heck, they could also use the spot to give Sanchez days off from the field like last year.

The other worst case is Holliday declining significantly. That wouldn’t be optimal, but he’s only under contract for one season unlike A-Rod from last year. Because of the limited investment (in years, not dollars), the team could move on and give away those ABs, which could perhaps be put to better use on a team in transition. A truly significant Holliday decline could help put a fork in the Yankees’ playoff hopes, but a more modest decline is much more likely.

On top of his performance, Holliday is renowned for his clubhouse presence. Who knows if it is more or less than what Rodriguez or Beltran brought to the table while they DH’d? Regardless, that alone isn’t worth $13 million and it may be tough for him to live up to the contract. But have no fear: It almost definitely doesn’t get worse than last season.