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River Ave. Blues » Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres is in a slump, but it’s not a cause for alarm

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(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

Gleyber Torres ran into the rookie wall last September. He started slumping right around the time the typical minor league season ends, which is fairly common for new big leaguers. Through August 31, Torres had an impressive .282/.351/.507 (130 wRC+) batting line. In 101 September plate appearances, Torres recorded a paltry 82 wRC+. His postseason performance was unremarkable as well. Now, Torres’s slump has continued into this season.

In his last 191 regular season trips to the plate dating back to September 1, Torres has a .236/.286/.402 triple-slash. Through Monday’s play, he was in the midst of a 2-for-24 skid to boot, which dropped his 2019 wRC+ from 135 to 82. That recent string is why it can be so perilous to analyze early season performances; I would have never written this article a week ago. But now, after looking at his year-to-date line with a recollection of a slow finish to last season, my curiosity was piqued. At the risk of getting burned by arbitrary endpoints, Gleyber hasn’t been hitting well for a while now. Should we be concerned?

Even though Torres’s results didn’t falter until September, his expected stats were a leading indicator of trouble ahead a month before. His exit velocity was down in August, hence the lower xwOBA, but it was no matter. He still slugged six homers and reached base nearly 37 percent of the time.

Then came September. His expected numbers tumbled further, but this time, poor results caught up to him. This has carried into 2019.

What’s hampering the 22 year-old budding star?

Perhaps his right hip, which he strained last July, slowed him down a bit. Remember, he spent about three weeks on the shelf that month, returning just before the calendar flipped to August. That’s convenient timing for a sudden downtick as I just highlighted, but difficult to assign blame to. Whether or not it lingered in any way is a mystery, despite the timing.

It’s also possible that Torres has been trying to do too much. After he was promoted last season, one of his most impressive traits that was quickly apparent was his at-bat quality. He never seemed overmatched or anxious at the plate. Torres was aggressive, swinging a bit more often than the typical hitter, but he wasn’t constantly chasing unhittable pitches. Even as pitchers began to show him more respect by throwing fewer pitches in the zone, Torres became a bit more patient. Then, in September, the infielder’s approach changed.

Gleyber began swinging at roughly 52 percent of offerings that month, and is up to 54 percent this year. Opposing hurlers are giving him more pitches to hit, but even so, Torres wasn’t this aggressive last season against similar in-zone rates. Further, his chase rate climbed from August to September, and though it’s a tad down this month, it’s still above his norms from when he was going good last season.

The gameplan to get Torres out has changed slightly too, albeit nothing drastic. He is seeing fewer fastballs this season, which happens to any respected hitter. Plus, pitchers can throw more junk to Torres since he’s one of the few regulars to avoid the injured list.

Although pitch type allocation has changed a tad, it doesn’t appear that pitchers are trying to exploit a particular area of the plate. I won’t post a bunch of location heatmaps here, but they all look pretty similar. It’s not like other teams have discovered something like an inability to turn on pitches down and in.

Now that we’ve examined a few potential root causes, I want to circle back to Torres’s expected numbers with a focus on contact quality. Interestingly enough, he’s still in a good position when it comes to exit velocity and hard hit percentage early this season. Those two metrics are up over last season, 1.6 MPH and 6 percent respectively. However, because of a lower launch angle (16.8 degrees vs. 18.8 last year), his expected stats and results are suffering.

Ultimately, this kind of rut happens to all players in some shape or form. Not much is going in Torres’s favor right now, but it’s nothing to be concerned about just yet. Perhaps a little more selectivity and lift can get Torres back on track.

Gleyber Torres and closing up that hole at the top of the zone

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Elevate and celebrate. (Getty)

The Yankees swept the Orioles this past weekend and they did it because the players they need to pick up the slack during all these injuries picked up the slack. Gary Sanchez hit four homers in the series, including three yesterday, and Clint Frazier hit three homers in the span of six plate appearances. That includes the game-winner Saturday.

Gleyber Torres will also be leaned on offensively until the Yankees get healthy, and he carried them this weekend. Torres hit two homers Thursday, including the go-ahead three-run shot, and he added another homer yesterday. He went 7-for-11 (.636) with two doubles, three homers, three walks, and no strikeouts in the series, and is sitting on a .371/.436/.714 (227 wRC+) early season batting line.

“He can use the whole field and can use it with power,” Aaron Judge told Coley Harvey following Gleyber’s two-homer game Thursday. “Especially a guy that plays second or shortstop, for him to come up and he’ll hit homers to left field and all of a sudden he’s spraying doubles down the right-field line, it’s just impressive what he can do at such a young age.”

Here is the (approximate) point of contact for two of the three homers Torres hit this weekend. Thursday’s game-winner is on the left and yesterday’s homer to open the scoring is on the right.

The Thursday homer was pulled to left field and you can see Gleyber’s hips are wide open. He went after that pitch aggressively and yanked it to left. With yesterday’s homer, Torres did not fly open quite as much. He stayed back on the pitch a bit and drove it out to dead center field.

Anyway, I bring this up because look at the pitch locations. Those pitches are at the top of the strike zone. Those are great locations for swings and misses. In fact, Torres swung through an elevated fastball in the same spot as the homer pitch Thursday earlier in that at-bat. Gleyber missed it the first time but not the second time. He tomahawked two pitches at the top of the zone for home runs this weekend.

Last season Torres, like most players, didn’t do much damage against pitches at the top of the zone. He swung and missed a bunch, and, when he did put those pitches in play, he didn’t hit them all that hard. So far this season Torres is getting around on those pitches. Here are Gleyber’s numbers against pitches in the upper third of the strike zone:

2018 2019 MLB AVG for RHB
Exit Velocity 88.3 mph 103.7 mph 88.3 mph
wOBA .298 1.016 .304
xwOBA .232 .908 .298
Whiffs-per-Swing 33.8% 25.0% 21.7%

Torres hit three home runs on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone last season. He hit two in the span of seven plate appearances this weekend. Granted, the Orioles stink, and it’s not like Torres took Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber deep, but still. Homers on pitches way up in the zone are not common for Gleyber.

The sky high wOBA and expected wOBA numbers are a good reminder it is still insanely early in the season. We’re still in the “2-for-4 with a double can add 100 points to your OPS” days. Two homers this weekend is not evidence Torres has closed a hole in his swing at the top of the zone. They just caught my attention (because they don’t happen often) and it’s something worth tracking going forward.

With Torres, his natural talent and feel for the game is so obviously special, and that makes quick adjustments and big gains possible. It’s a small sample size, absolutely. This could all be nothing. I also would not be surprised if this weekend eventually proves to be an indication Torres is now a more dangerous hitter against pitches up in the strike zone, either because he’s made an adjustment or because he’s more experienced or both.

“He’s got a great approach at the plate. He goes up there with a plan. You don’t see him up there too many times just free swinging,” Judge said to Harvey. “He usually comes up there with a plan, a pitch he’s going to attack, and he usually comes away with a pretty good at-bat.”

Yankeemetrics: Bronx Bombers invade Baltimore (April 4-7)

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(AP)

April 4: Happy Gleyber Day
The Yankees kicked off their first road trip of the season in Baltimore with a 8-4 win (crazy, eh?), as Gleyber Torres produced a career-best performance that re-wrote the franchise record books.

A happy ending could hardly have been predicted after a horrible first inning in which James Paxton gave up a leadoff homer, two walks, an RBI single, a run-scoring balk and a run-scoring wild pitch, before finally striking out the final two batters to end the inning. 3-0 hole, 24 outs to go … no problem, right?

Yankees #FightingSpirit made its first appearance of the season as they rallied from that three-run deficit to get a much-needed victory. Last year the team won only one game — at Citi Field against the Mets on June 9 — when trailing by at least three runs at the end of the first frame.

Torres started his monster game with a solo homer in the third inning, the 25th of his career. At age 22 and 112 days old, he became the third-youngest Yankee to reach that milestone, behind only Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle.

But he was just getting warmed up …

Torres came to the plate in the sixth inning with the Yankees trailing 4-2 and two men on base, and did what he does best — smash a three-run dinger put the Yankees ahead for good. If there is such thing as a clutch gene, Torres might have it, and the numbers in “high leverage” pressure situations give us some data to back it up.

Following that homer, Torres had a .444/.479/.867 line with six homers and 31 RBI in 49 high-leverage plate appearances. That seems … good? Since the start of last year, 232 players (as of Friday) had at least 40 high-leverage plate appearances. Here’s where Torres’ numbers rank among those 232:

BA OBP SLG HR RBI wOBA wRC+
Torres .444 .479 .867 6 31 .560 266
MLB Rank 1st 11th 1st 2nd 1st 1st 1st

His final boxscore stats of four hits (2 homers, 1 double, 1 single) and four RBI put him in the company of a couple pinstriped legends.

  • He is the second Yankee shortstop with at least four hits, including two or more homers, in a game on the road, joining Derek Jeter on May 8, 2011 at Texas.
  • It was his third career multi-homer game; the only Yankee with more before age 23 was Joe DiMaggio (8!)
  • He is the second-youngest Yankee to produce at least 11 total bases and drive in four-or-more runs in a game, behind only a 21-year-old DiMaggio (June 24, 1936).
(UPI)

April 6: Red Thunder is Rolling
The Yankees overcame a messy mix of bad baserunning, bad defense and bad bullpen management to put together their first win streak of the season. (Not)Shockingly, dingers saved the day in their 6-4 win on Saturday.

The most glaring wasted opportunity came in the sixth inning when the Yankees had the bases loaded with no outs … and scored zero runs. In that situation, based on recent historical numbers, a team is expected to score a run 86.1 percent of the time and score an average 2.3 runs after loading the bases with no outs.

Aaron Judge kept the Yankees in the game with his bat, socking two dingers for his eighth career multi-homer game. Did you forget that he loves to smash baseballs vs this team? Four of those eight two-homer games have come against the Orioles. They were also his 84th and 85th career homers, in his 302nd career game; the only player in MLB history to reach 85 homers quicker than Judge was Ryan Howard (283 games).

After the O’s rallied to take a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the seventh, Clint Frazier put on the hero’s cape and saved the day with a ginormous three-run blast in the top of the eighth. Let’s celebrate with this #FunFact:

#TooManyHomers
The Yankees finally pushed above the .500 mark with a dinger-happy 15-3 win to sweep the Orioles in Baltimore. It was the first time since 2003 (at Toronto) that the Yankees swept their first road series of the season (h/t @CharlieRGa). And the win extended their win streak in Baltimore to eight games, their longest road win streak against the O’s since the franchise moved to the Charm City in 1954. But we’re burying the lead here …

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname and put on a fun power show , slugging seven homers, one shy of the team record. Overall, its the fifth time they’ve gone deep at least seven times in a game and the first time since July 31, 2007 vs White Sox at Yankee Stadium. The last time they hit seven-or-more homers in a road game was May 30, 1961 against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. The players with dingers that day: Mickey Mantle (2), Roger Maris (2), Yogi Berra and Bill Skowron (2).

Gleyber Torres got the home run derby started with a solo blast in the first inning to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead. More than half (14) of his 27 career homers have either tied the game or put the Yankees ahead. That’s good, I think.

Clint Frazier was the next guy to join the home run party in the second inning, and then capped off his career-best four-hit day with a ninth-inning shot for his first career multi-homer game. Congrats Clint, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: The last Yankee outfielder under age-25 with at least four hits, including two homers, in a game was Mickey Mantle on May 18, 1956 vs White Sox.

And we keep burying the lead …

(AP)

Gary Sanchez wins our Gold Star of the game thanks to his historic three-homer, six-RBI effort. This one deserves a bullet-point recap:

  • Youngest Yankee (26 years old) with at least three homers in a game since Bobby Murcer (24 years old) did it on June 24, 1970.
  • First Yankee with at least three homers in a game vs the Orioles since they moved to Baltimore in 1954. The only Yankees to homer three times in a game vs the Orioles/Browns franchise came back when they were known as the St. Louis Browns: Bill Dickey (July 26, 1939) and Joe DiMaggio (June 13, 1937).
  • Third player in Yankees history to hit six homers this early into the season (9 team games), joining Alex Rodriguez (2007) and Graig Nettles (1974).
  • Youngest player in franchise history with three homers and six-or-more RBI in a game on the road. The only player younger than Sanchez to do this in home pinstripes was Ben Chapman (23 years old) on July 9, 1932 vs the Tigers.

And our signature #FunFact of the game — six of his eight total hits this season have gone into the seats for souvenirs:

It’s Time For Gleyber Torres to Hit Leadoff

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(Presswire)

The 2019 Yankees have suffered a full season’s worth of injuries despite the fact that the new campaign is barely a week old. The injuries are significant: with four starting position players, the rotation ace and the bullpen ace on the IL, that adds up to roughly 25 WAR in 2018, using FanGraphs for the batters and Baseball-Reference for the pitchers. The depleted state of the roster gives new urgency to early April games, as the Yankees cannot afford to dig themselves too deep a hole in the early going before returning to full strength in (hopefully) May.

The good news is that the rival Red Sox have started the season even worse than the Yanks: they’re 2-7, having been thoroughly embarrassed in Arizona last night, and they’ve seen their playoff odds drop all the way to 70 percent, per FanGraphs. The Sox are healthy (with the possible exception of Chris Sale, who has yet to garner a swing and miss on a fastball) and will surely bounce back soon, but the Yankees have to be thanking their lucky stars that Boston has scuttled out of the gate. Truthfully, Yankee fans should be, too – imagine the takes if the Sox started 2019 like they did 2018.

In any case, the Yankees cannot rely on their competition playing below expectations. The team won’t be healthy for a while and simply needs to not bury themselves early. They should be up to the task, but it starts with giving their best hitters the most at-bats. That means Aaron Boone should hit Gleyber Torres leadoff, at least until Aaron Hicks returns.

The case for Gleyber is pretty straightforward. Let’s get right into it, starting with what the typical leadoff man has done recently.

What’s The Average Leadoff Hitter Like?

 First, let’s look at how leadoff hitters stack up compared to the rest of their competition. The following table shows the triple-slash and walk/strikeout rate for leadoff batters in the AL and NL, with the third row reserved for the league average in 2018, all per FanGraphs:

There are clear takeaways here, all of which were fairly predictable: the average leadoff batter hits for a higher average, gets on base more, hits for power and strikes out less than the average player in the league, though they walk at virtually the same clip. Leadoff hitters tend to be better, obviously.

That’s not breaking any new ground, and that is how it should be: the top spot in the lineup got 22,631 plate appearances in 2018: that’s 500 more than batters hitting 2nd, 2,000 more than the 5th spot in the order and 4,000 more than the “second leadoff” hitter batting 9th. In other words, teams give more at-bats to better players. Simple enough.

That’s particularly relevant to the Yankees, though, who have often used either D.J. LeMahieu or Brett Gardner in the spot this year—and as much as I think DJLM got short shrift from fans or how much I love Gardner, it’s pretty hard to argue that those two deserve to get the most at-bats in April. They’re not the Yankees best hitters, even among the depleted lineup. Given their scuttling rivals and own struggles, the Yanks simply cannot afford to waste any opportunity to maximize their production. These games are important now, despite the rainy spring weather. 

How does Gleyber Stack Up?

Things brings us to Gleyber. As we all know, Torres was generally the 9th hitter for the Yanks last year and lived primarily in the bottom third of the order. A look at the data clearly shows that it’s time for that to change. Let’s bump that same chart from above here, this time replacing the final row (average hitters) with Gleyber’s 2018 production:

It’s important to remember that Torres was a 21-year-old rookie last year, thrust into a playoff race fresh off a truncated 2017 MiLB season: those numbers show that the kid can play. While he strikes out more than average for the spot, that’s more than made up by the rest of the line: Gleyber hit for higher average, got on base more regularly and hit for significantly more power than the normal leadoff hitter.

A deeper dive suggests that Torres is ready for more plate appearances, too. Torres made contact with 82% of all strikes he swung at (higher than Judge) and swung at balls out of the zone only 30% of the time (about the same as Judge) in 2018. Making contact with balls in the zone and taking the bad stuff is prototypical leadoff material and is the sign of a patient hitter; Torres saw 4.03 pitches per plate appearance last year, backing up that assertion.

Folks, Gleyber Torres is The Real Deal. Turns out there was a reason he was such a highly-touted prospect for so long.

Don’t Waste His Talent Now

But the Yankees and Aaron Boone have not properly used their young stud. In fact, they’re actively wasting his talent so far in 2019. Consider Thursday’s game at Camden Yards. Torres saved the game, slugging two home runs and injecting new life into a struggling Yankee offense. The problem? He was hitting 7th, ahead of Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade—not setting the table for Judge, Voit and Sanchez.

A guy who can change the outcome of a game with one or two swings shouldn’t waste away at the bottom of the lineup, especially now. It’s one thing when the lineup is fully healthy and the Yankees return to their rightful place as one of the league’s most feared offensive juggernaut, but it’s another altogether when Wade, Tauchman, and others are getting significant playing time. Stacking the best hitters at the top of the lineup simply makes sense: think of Boston last year, who masked a poor bottom third of the lineup with a truly fearsome top half. That’s what the Yankees need to do right now.

Again, the Yankees need to tread water (at the very least) before returning to full strength, and the best way to do that is to ensure that the very best hitters on the team get the most opportunities. If Aaron Boone is smart, he will adjust his lineup to reflect the fact that Gleyber Torres has proven that he is more than just a prospect, and he will give Torres the opportunity to do his part to keep the Yankees afloat during the rough waters of early 2019.

Repeating past mistakes have come back to haunt the Yankees

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(Presswire)

It took six games for Troy Tulowitzki to wind up on the injured list. Banking on him to be the stopgap shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery was a high risk decision from the get go, and it’s already come back to bite the Yankees. I feel bad for Tulowitzki; his return could have been a feel-good story this season (and maybe still could). For a team in contention, it was never a good idea to count a player absent from the majors since 2017. It doesn’t matter how he looked in his offseason workouts.

Gambling on Tulowitzki was a move straight out of the 2013 and 2014 playbook. Those were highly forgettable Yankees teams that somehow finished above .500 while missing the playoffs. The likes of Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Brian Roberts, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki were counted on as regulars. All of those players were either past their primes, injury prone, or both. Tulowitzki fits that mold.

Some of the aforementioned players actually got off to good starts in pinstripes. I recall Hafner and Wells raking early on. Pronk had a 198 wRC+ in the first month of 2013. Wells posted a 150 wRC+ during the same period. Things went (steeply) downhill from there. Others like Youkilis and Roberts never contributed much at all, and didn’t even last on the roster all season. Ichiro hit well when he was acquired in 2012, but was surprisingly signed a two-year deal thereafter.

Tulowitzki never really got a chance to show any semblance of his old self. Maybe he’ll be back much sooner than we anticipate, but it’s easy to be skeptical of his belief that it’s a relatively minor calf injury. At this point, as Mike noted, the Yankees have exhausted just about all of their depth, so they actually need him back. And that gets us back to the point: it’s a problem that the Yankees relied on Tulowitzki to be their starting shortstop.

DJ LeMahieu was ostensibly the contingency plan for Tulowitzki. It’s not that he’s a bad fallback, but rather, the issue is that it forces Gleyber Torres to spend less time learning a fairly new position, second base. Torres is capable of playing short, but if the Yankees have any intention of retaining Didi Gregorius, it would make sense to give Torres as many reps at the keystone as possible. That means having a more tenable shortstop during Gregorius’s absence would have been ideal.

This injury serves as yet another reminder that the Yankees passed on Manny Machado this past winter. I know, I know, you’re all tired of hearing about that. I’d rather not discuss it either. But what choice do we have? Sure, Machado could have become another one of the team’s walking wounded. However, that would have came as a surprise, unlike Tulowitzki.

It’s a rare opportunity to acquire a young superstar in the prime of their career for only money. The team could regret the decision for years to come. You think they regret letting Robinson Cano walk in favor of Brian Roberts? There were some dark years before the team finally found Starlin Castro and ultimately Gleyber. And sure, you can say that the Yankees had better internal options now as compared to Cano’s walk year, with Andujar and Gregorius on the left side of the infield. But who knows how Gregorius, and now Andujar, return from their injuries. It’s better to acquire as much high floor talent as possible and sort things out later if everyone is healthy at the same time. Instead, the Yankees went for the cheap low floor option with a low probability of significant contribution.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.