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Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

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Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

At the risk of looking foolish, some optimistic spring training performance takeaways

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(Presswire)

Spring training is in the books and opening day is just days away. The slate has been wiped clean and all camp performances, good or bad, get a reset. By now, we all know better than to make strong declarations based on Grapefruit League statistics. It sure is fun to do, though. And hey, what’s my risk of interpreting how certain players performed? I can live with looking silly.

A handful of Yankees had intriguing numbers over the last month or so. We won’t know how significant those until later in the regular season, but I think we can make meaningful observations from some of the results.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will strike out less

Both Judge and Stanton struck out about 30 percent of the time last season. If Grapefruit League play is any indicator, the duo will put the ball in play more often this year. Stanton fanned in 22.9 percent of plate appearances while Judge went down on strikes 26.7 percent of the time. Of course, neither accrued more than 48 plate appearances, so make of it what you will.

Despite the small sample, we do know that Judge has been trying to cut down on whiffs in camp. With two strikes, he’s eschewed his leg kick for a subtle toe tap. It’s seemingly worked out well thus far. Why can’t it continue to work in the regular season?

As for Stanton, there isn’t a discernible adjustment. At least, not one that I’m aware of. Nonetheless, he is just a season removed from the 23.6 percent rate he posted in his final season with Miami. Last year could have been a blip. As his spring training performance shows, this is who he is at his best.

Clint Frazier has some rust to shake off

This statement isn’t out on a limb, unlike the strikeout talk from the prior section. Frazier hit .149/.228/.245 in 57 plate appearances. He had the most opportunities out of anyone in camp, and understandably so. With much of last season lost due concussion recovery, it’s been a long time since Clint has been at full strength. Now that he’s finally cleared, there are some cobwebs for him to shake off.

It’s tough luck that Frazier still needs more time to get on track. Obviously, his health problems were the biggest misfortune of all. Pretty scary, in particular. But also, he’s missing an opportunity to grab a job from the outset of the season because Aaron Hicks is down for the count. He should still get an opportunity later this year, but he’ll have to wait.

Greg Bird is (finally) healthy

Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me…thrice? To be honest, I’m not sure how many times I have gotten excited about Bird at this point, only to be inevitably let down. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to read into his spring training numbers and not think he’s healthy. The Yankees gave him 54 trips to the plate in camp and he capitalized with a 1.091 OPS. Can’t I get a little excited?

Oh, but that elbow of his. He was hit there by a pitch last week. Here we go again, right? Well, it seems like he’s going to be fine, for now. I get the skepticism with Bird, but I’m ready to dive back in and believe. I think it’s easier this time because he’s the underdog to Luke Voit, and if Bird does indeed flame out again, the Yankees should be fine at the position anyway.

Tommy Kahnle is back

It’s always good to draw conclusions from seven and a third innings pitched. In that workload, Kahnle struck out nine and allowed only one earned run. His velocity appears to be back and not only is he healthy, but he’s also in far better shape than before. The way he took care of his body before this season was…something.

It’s going to be a huge plus to have a revitalized Kahnle with Dellin Betances on the shelf to start the year. It looks Kahnle’s 2017-self, minus all of the caffeine and junk food, is back and here to stay.

Stephen Tarpley is for real

The 26-year-old southpaw was named the team’s best rookie in camp, and deservedly so. He allowed no runs, one walk, and six hits in just over 11 innings of work this spring (before last night), which earned him a spot on the opening day roster. Tarpley already began to emerge as an intriguing relief prospect last season and did a nice job in a late summer cameo with the Bombers.

Tarpley is in line to be this year’s Jonathan Holder. He may ride the Scranton shuttle a couple of times early on, but more likely than not, he’s ready to carve out a role in the big leagues for good. His spring training was just a confirmation of his capabilities.

March 25th Spring Training Notes: Andujar, Severino, Dellin

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(Presswire)

The next time the Yankees play, the game will count. The rain held off and the Yankees dropped their exhibition finale to the Nationals in Washington tonight. Troy Tulowitzki hit a home run and Greg Bird drove in a run with a Juan Soto-aided double. Soto got all turned around and the ball landed behind him. Brett Gardner had a double down the line. Lots of quick at-bats tonight. Everyone was ready to get on the plane to New York.

Stephen Tarpley waited until final spring outing to allow a run. He gave up a two-run homer to Anthony Rendon. Zack Britton retired both batters he faced and Adam Ottavino struck out one in a 1-2-3 inning. He’s a video game. His stuff moves all over the place. Nestor Cortes allowed a run in 3.1 workmanlike innings. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the notes from the last day of camp:

  • Miguel Andujar took a pitch to the ribs tonight, just below the armpit. He lifted his arms to jump out of the way and the ball deflected off his elbow guard and into his ribs. Kinda weird. Andujar was in obvious pain but remained in the game, and Aaron Boone said he’s fine following the game, so there you go. Another injury would’ve been just swell. [Kristie Ackert]
  • Dellin Betances (shoulder) played catch today for the first time since being shut down, and everything went well. Luis Severino (shoulder) stretched out his throwing from 90 feet to 120 feet today. I thought today would be a rest day after Severino played catch the last two days, but nope. CC Sabathia (shoulder) has a bullpen session tomorrow. [James Wagner, Coley Harvey]
  • Aaron Boone didn’t feel the need to talk to Tyler Wade after he said he was “blindsided” by not making the roster. “Guys are allowed to be upset … I get the frustration and that’s okay. The thing I’ll be looking for is, what’s his response?,” said Boone. [Coley Harvey, Pete Caldera]
  • The Orioles officially scratched Alex Cobb (groin) from their Opening Day start. It’ll be Masahiro Tanaka vs. Andrew Cashner on Thursday. The O’s haven’t set their rotation after Cashner. I have to think the Yankees will see Dylan Bundy at some point this weekend. [Roch Kubatko]

Spring Training is officially over. Thank goodness for that. The Yankees went 17-10-4 with one rainout and a +39 run differential in their 32 exhibition games. Up next: Opening Day. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET on Thursday, and I imagine the pregame introductions will begin around 12:30pm ET or so. Tanaka vs. Cashner. Game One of 162. Let’s do this.

Spring Training Game Thread: The Final Exhibition Game

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(Presswire)

Spring Training is over, folks. The Yankees wrap up their exhibition schedule tonight at Nationals Park, so, for the first time this year, they’re going to play in a big league ballpark. That is pretty cool. After tonight’s game the Yankees will enjoy off-days Tuesday and Wednesday, then open the 2019 regular season against the Orioles on Thursday. Hooray for that.

There is a bunch of rain in the forecast tonight, so the Yankees are going to work backwards with their pitchers. The big league relievers will pitch the early innings to make sure they get their work in before the rain. Once those guys are done, scheduled starter Nestor Cortes will take over. Here is the Nationals’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use tonight:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. DH Luke Voit
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. C Gary Sanchez
  7. 2B Gleyber Torres
  8. SS Troy Tulowitzki
  9. 1B DJ LeMahieu

LHP Stephen Tarpley

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Austin Romine, 1B Greg Bird, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Mike Tauchman, OF Zack Zehner, UTIL Tyler Wade. Aguilar, Estrada, Holder, Amburgey, Hendrix, Zehner, and Wade are the lucky minor league camp guys who got to make the trip.

Available Pitchers: LHP Zack Britton, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Cale Coshow, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP David Sosebee, RHP Greg Weissert. Cortes, Coshow, Harvey, Lane, Sosebee, and Weissert escaped minor league camp to make the trip.

Like I said, there is rain in the forecast in Washington this evening. The internet tells me it’ll start raining around 6pm ET or so, with the heaviest stuff set to arrive about an hour later. Once the rain starts, it’s not supposed to stop until early tomorrow morning, so don’t bet on a mid-game delay. They’ll call it after a few innings. Anyway, first pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB.tv and MLB Network. (MLB.tv is free tonight. Just sign up for a free MLB.com account.) MLB Network will show the game in the Yankees’ home market and there are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

March 24th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Hicks, Wade

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The Yankees closed out their Grapefruit League season with a win this afternoon. The win clinched the best record in Spring Training. The Red Sox had the best record in Spring Training last year and they went on to win the World Series, so start planning the parade. Anyway, Clint Frazier’s bases-clearing double was the big hit today. Greg Bird went hitless in his first game action since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday.

James Paxton started and went through the motions for 5.2 innings until reaching his pitch limit. He struck out five and allowed two runs. Next time we see him will be next Saturday, in the second game of the regular season. Luis Cessa was betrayed by his defense and charged with a run in 1.1 innings in his final tune-up outing of the spring. All in all, a good day. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Spring Training:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch at 90 feet again today. He’ll stretch it out to 120 feet next. “Moving in the right direction. Today was a good day,” said Aaron Boone. Severino played catch two days in a row, rested the third day, then played catch two days in a row again. Based on that, I assume tomorrow’s rest day. [Bryan Hoch]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) still hasn’t resumed baseball activities. The hope is the Yankees can “start ramping him up” with his core work tomorrow. Hicks and the other injured players are staying behind in Tampa to continue their rehab work, which I guess means we won’t see them during the Opening Day baseline introductions. Lame. [Coley Harvey]
  • In case you missed it earlier, the Opening Day roster has been finalized and it will include Stephen Tarpley and newly acquired Mike Tauchman. The official roster announcement will come in a few days. Tauchman will join the Yankees in Washington tomorrow. [Randy Miller]
  • Tyler Wade was optioned out today. “It blindsided me … Just the way I performed this spring, I did everything they asked me to do. I played well. I made the adjustments offensively, and now it’s my defense that’s not good enough,” said the refreshingly candid Wade. This feels like the Francisco Cervelli/Chris Stewart situation back in 2012. [Coley Harvey, Erik Boland]
  • And finally, Orioles righty Alex Cobb left yesterday’s start with a groin issue. He will see how he feels during a bullpen session tomorrow. Andrew Cashner made an abbreviated two-inning tune-up start today in case he’s needed to start Opening Day on short rest. Long story short, the Yankees might see Cashner rather than Cobb on Thursday. [Joe Trezza]

So long, Florida. The Yankees are done with Grapefruit League play and will close out the spring season with an exhibition game at Nationals Park tomorrow, weather permitting. There is rain in the forecast throughout the evening. Nestor Cortes is scheduled to make that start. I assume J.A. Happ will stay behind in Tampa and pitch in a minor league game to avoid having his final spring tune-up start rained out. Anyway, tomorrow’s game will be televised live, assuming they play.

Spring Training Game Thread: Last Day in Florida

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(Presswire)

The Grapefruit League finale has arrived. The Yankees close out the Florida portion of their exhibition schedule against the Twins today. Following today’s game the Yankees will travel up to Washington for tomorrow’s exhibition game at Nationals Park, then it’s back to New York for the start of the regular season. Hooray for that.

James Paxton is making the start today and, unlike Masahiro Tanaka yesterday, this will be a full start for him. Not a short tune-up outing. That’s because Paxton is not pitching again until the second game of the regular season next Saturday, after the usual off-day following the home opener. Here is the Twins’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use today:

  1. CF Tyler Wade
  2. 1B Luke Voit
  3. DH Greg Bird
  4. C Austin Romine
  5. RF Clint Frazier
  6. 3B Gio Urshela
  7. LF Matt Lipka
  8. 2B Gosuke Katoh
  9. SS Diego Castillo

LHP James Paxton

The full lineup card didn’t make its way to Twitter this morning, so I’m not sure who is available off the bench or out of the bullpen. Safe to assume all the reserves are minor leaguers and non-roster guys. The regulars hung back in Tampa.

It is nice and sunny in Fort Myers today, so the Yankees are closing out the Grapefruit League portion of their spring schedule with some great weather. This afternoon’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB.tv anywhere and on FOX Sports North in the Twins’ home market. There is no YES Network broadcast today. Enjoy the game.

March 23rd Spring Training Notes: Severino, Bird, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Roster Cuts, Tarpley

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The Yankees dropped this afternoon’s game to the Blue Jays. Gleyber Torres provided the only offense with a three-run home run. Miguel Andujar doubled while Brett Gardner, Austin Romine, and Tyler Wade had singles. Masahiro Tanaka was sharp in his two scoreless innings. Next time we see him will be Opening Day. Aroldis Chapman faced four batters and retired one. It was ugly. Better he gets it out of his system now than next week.

Gio Gonzalez made his Yankees debut and gave up five runs (four earned) in two innings. Gonzalez told Coley Harvey he is “just a tick off” right now but woof, he did not look big league ready. He looked like a guy who hasn’t gone through a proper Spring Training. Based on today, Gonzalez will need to some Triple-A time before potentially helping the Yankees. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees traded lefty reliever Phil Diehl to the Rockies for outfielder Mike Tauchman. There’s a chance Tauchman will make the Opening Day roster, which would seem to be bad news for Greg Bird or Tyler Wade.
  • According to a report during the YES Network broadcast, Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch at 90 feet today as scheduled, and everything went well. He’s doing better mechanically after feeling a bit off during his first day of throwing. Not sure what the next step is for Severino.
  • Greg Bird (elbow) was scratched from the lineup after taking batting practice today. Aaron Boone said Bird is “fine,” but he wanted to sit him one more day so the swelling can go away completely. Bird is tentatively scheduled to play tomorrow afternoon. [Erik Boland, Lindsey Adler]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) is targeting mid-August for his return. Right now he is throwing fastballs only and at less than full effort from a half-mound. He’s about a week away from graduating to a full mound, though offspeed pitches are still a ways off. [Lindsey Adler]
  • Jonathan Loaisiga was sent to minor league camp today and Boone said he will rejoin the Yankees after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. Domingo German (or an opener) will start the fourth game of the regular season, Masahiro Tanaka the fifth game (on normal rest), and Loaisiga the sixth game. Luis Cessa will pitch in long relief. Didn’t see that coming! [Bryan Hoch]
  • Following last night’s game Gio Urshela and Kyle Holder were reassigned to minor league camp, the Yankees announced. Nestor Cortes, Estevan Florial, and David Hale were sent down today. The Yankees will begin the regular season with a 24-man roster while Sabathia serves his suspension, so there are still five more cuts coming following the Tauchman trade.
  • And finally, Stephen Tarpley was named the James P. Dawson Award winner as the best rookie in camp prior to today’s game. Congrats to him. Tarpley threw 11.1 scoreless innings during Grapefruit League play. Andujar and Torres won it the last two years.

The Yankees wrap up their Grapefruit League season on the road against the Twins tomorrow. Unlike Tanaka today, James Paxton will make a full start tomorrow because he won’t pitch again until the second game of the regular season next Saturday. Lindsey Adler says Greg Bird, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Austin Romine are making the trip. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.