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Thoughts after the Yankees lose Aaron Judge to a “pretty significant” oblique strain

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Judge   :(   (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Okay, this injury business has jumped the shark. Every team deals with injuries, so when the Yankees got hit in Spring Training, it was frustrating but also understood to be part of baseball. Now? Now it’s getting ridiculous. Aaron Judge became the latest injured Yankee over the weekend. He has a “pretty significant” oblique strain, which undoubtedly means weeks on the shelf, if not months. Baseball can be a real jerk sometimes. Here are some thoughts on where the Yankees go from here.

1. I’m going to start with a little reality check because I feel like we could all use one. The Yankees have 13 players on the injured list, including six starting position players and their best starting pitcher (and no worse than their second best reliever), plus their supposed Super Bullpen has been largely a disappointment and they’ve shot themselves in the foot with careless mistakes more times than I care to count. And yet, the Yankees have won five of their last six games and are only 2.5 games behind the Rays, a team that was gloating on Twitter about their amazing start as recently as three days ago. Also, the Yankees have the third best run differential in the American League and the fourth best run differential in baseball. For a team with so much going wrong and so much adversity, the Yankees aren’t in a terrible spot right now. Granted, there’s a lot of baseball still to be played this year and I’m not sure how much longer they can survive with so many key players on the injured list, but, three and a half weeks into the season, the Yankees have kept their head above water. They’ve avoided sinking in the standings despite all those injuries and all that sloppy play. As has often been the case with the Yankees the last 20-25 years or so, if this is what ugly looks like, it ain’t so bad.

2. It goes without saying there is no replacing Aaron Judge. He is one of the ten best players in the world and that makes him as close to irreplaceable as it gets. Realistically, there’s no one the Yankees could trot out there who isn’t a huge downgrade in right field and in the lineup. I mean, did it feel like Judge was truly locked in at the plate before the injury? Not really. I don’t think so. It felt like we were all waiting for that big hot streak. And yet, Judge is hitting .288/.404/.521 (147 wRC+) on the season. He hadn’t found his groove at the plate and he still did that. Even with a perfectly healthy roster, losing Judge for any length of time would be devastating, and it sure sounds like this is a long-term injury. Even relatively minor oblique strains can take weeks to heal. Aaron Boone described Judge’s injury as “pretty significant” and both the team and player declined to give a timetable for his return — after the whole “three weeks” fiasco with the wrist last year, I’m not at all surprised the Yankees are keeping his timetable a secret — and just based on what I’ve picked up watching baseball all these years, significant oblique strains can take two or three (or four) months to heal. Judge might not be back until the All-Star break or even later. It is a distinct possibility. Losing Judge would hurt even with a healthy roster and the rest of the roster sure as heck isn’t healthy right now. I don’t want to call this the straw that breaks the camel’s back, but the Judge injury is bad news. It’ll be a challenge to overcome this one.

3. According to MLBTR, there are six unsigned outfielders sitting in free agency: Jose Bautista, Matt Holliday, Austin Jackson, Denard Span, Danny Valencia, and Chris Young. Bautista and Holliday are toast and Valencia is no outfielder despite having played out there occasionally. Span is the best free agent outfielder in my opinion and I don’t think it’s all that close either — he hit .261/.341/.419 (112 wRC+) last season! — though Jackson and Young would be worthwhile depth adds on minor league deals. The thing is, none of these guys are MLB ready. I don’t care how much cage work and how much live batting practice they’re taking on their own. There’s no substitute for game action at the highest level. If the Yankees sign Span or Jackson or whoever, he’ll have to play in some minor league tune-up games before stepping into the lineup. And you know what? At this point, that’s fine. It does not sound like Judge is coming back anytime soon, so while a free agent signing wouldn’t help right away, he could help in May and June, and however long Judge is out. An outfield version of the Gio Gonzalez signing would be ideal. Sign an outfielder, give him maybe two weeks in Triple-A, then give him an opt-out. It takes two to tango (how many free agents are up for that?) but I think that would be the best case scenario for the Yankees. At the very least, the Yankees should check in on the few viable free agent outfielders (Jackson, Span, and Young specifically) and see whether something can be worked out.

4. As for the trade market, I have to think the Yankees will search for two types of players: rentals and optionable depth guys. Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton are signed long-term, and Judge (and Clint Frazier!) both have several years of control remaining, so I don’t think the Yankees would pursue an outfielder with multiple years remaining on his contract. The Mariners would probably give Jay Bruce away and even eat money to do it, but he is signed through next season and that just doesn’t make sense for the Yankees given their roster. Not right now. Same deal with a guy like David Peralta. Yeah, he’d undoubtedly help the Yankees right now, but the big picture has to be considered. I think it’s lower cost rentals and optionable depth guys. Some possible rental trade targets:

  • Jarrod Dyson, Diamondbacks
  • Alex Gordon, Royals
  • Curtis Granderson, Marlins
  • Adam Jones, Diamondbacks
  • Matt Kemp, Reds
  • Yasiel Puig, Reds

Granderson and Jones are recently signed free agents and therefore they can not be traded until June 16th without their consent, and, even if they do consent, they can not be traded for contracts totaling more than $50,000 in value. (That is MLB’s way of preventing those “sign a free agent and immediately trade him” video game moves.) They are not really options right now. The Reds have struggled so far this season, but would they really cut bait on Kemp or Puig so soon after their high profile offseason? I don’t think so. I am a Dyson fan and he can really go get the ball in center field and create havoc on the bases. History suggests his early season .295/.385/.523 (137 wRC+) batting line won’t last, but hey, stranger things have happened. Gordon is a career Royal who grew up a Royals fan in nearby Lincoln, Nebraska, and he has full no-trade protection through his 10-and-5 rights. Even if you buy into his resurgence, and even if the Yankees and Royals could work around the $21M or so he still has coming to him this year, Gordon may not want to leave Kansas City. Trading for an established MLB outfielder to help cover for all these injuries doesn’t seem so easy at the moment.

Fowler. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty)

5. Digging through Triple-A rosters, non-40-man roster journeymen like Alex Dickerson (Padres), Mikie Mahtook (Tigers), Charlie Tilson (White Sox), Preston Tucker (White Sox), Mason Williams (Orioles), and Mac Williamson (Giants) could be options for the Yankees as Triple-A depth guys. Dickerson was kinda sorta breaking out in 2016 before back trouble and Tommy John surgery sabotaged his 2017-18 seasons. He’s healthy now though. Williamson was an interesting launch angle guy before suffering a concussion last season. He cleared waivers in Spring Training. Joey Rickard (Orioles) and Zack Granite (Rangers) are defense-first fourth or fifth outfielder types with options who can be shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and MLB. The O’s could move Rickard and call up an actual prospect like Austin Hays and D.J. Stewart. In the past the Yankees have had interest in Hunter Renfroe, who still has options remaining, plus the Padres are very deep in outfielders. They’re likely willing to move someone. Is that someone Renfroe? Not sure, but someone. The Astros might be open to trading Derek Fisher, a former big name prospect, in the right deal since they have Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw on the 40-man roster and in Triple-A. What about Dustin Fowler? The Athletics have no room for him in their outfield right now — Ramon Laureano has taken their center field job and run with it — so Fowler is back in Triple-A for the third straight season, doing what he always does in Triple-A (.271/.354/.514 and 109 wRC+). The A’s desperately need rotation help and the Yankees aren’t really in position to give starters away, plus Oakland needs their cheap young players to survive, and they’re one injury away from Fowler playing everyday in the big leagues. Fowler might not be realistic. I totally understand why we’re going to hear about Alex Gordon and Yasiel Puig and Jay Bruce and guys like that in the coming days and weeks. I think the Yankees are more likely to look for another Mike Tauchman type. An undervalued guy with options. Good luck figuring out who that might be.

6. This oblique injury has financial ramifications. Judge can almost certainly forget about a record first year arbitration salary after the season. Kris Bryant currently holds the record at $10.85M (Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor are right behind him in the $10.5M range) and, with an MVP caliber 2019 season, Judge could’ve topped Bryant. He had a chance to go into arbitration with 100+ career homers and hey, he still might (88 right now), plus he’d have at least two All-Star Game selections, a Rookie of the Year award, and a second place finish in the MVP voting to his name. Adding a third All-Star Game selection and another high finish in the MVP voting probably won’t happen now, which will hurt his arbitration case. Don’t get me wrong, Judge is still going to do very well as a first year arbitration-eligible player no matter what happens the rest of the season. But a record-setting first year salary? Seems unlikely now. That means less money next year and less money down the road because arbitration raises are based on the player’s salary in the previous year. There’s a carryover effect. That is bad news for Judge and good news for the Yankees, who are so worried about locking up their core that they eschewed the top of the free agent market entirely over the winter (wanking motion).

7. There was a sliver of good injury news this weekend: Gary Sanchez will play a minor league rehab game with Low-A Charleston today, and as long as everything goes well, he’ll be activated Wednesday. I saw some folks suggest the Yankees should’ve activated Sanchez yesterday — “How’s one rehab game going to help?” was the general sentiment — and, uh, no. Rushing a player back from injury because another player got hurt is a terrible idea, especially when you’re talking about a prized young catcher with a leg injury. Sanchez is playing a rehab game because the Yankees want to make sure he is game ready. Activate him and he’s turns out to be not 100% ready, then he probably has to go back on the injured list. If Sanchez comes through the game tonight and he and the Yankees believe he needs another rehab game or three to get right — my guess is catching is more of a concern than hitting right now —  he can get those extra rehab games and come back later this week. Hopefully everything goes well today and Sanchez returns Wednesday to add some punch to the lineup, and hopefully Stanton continues to progress well and returns a few days after Sanchez. The Yankees would not be back to full strength, but getting those two back sure would be a big help. Getting healthy has to start somewhere.

8. And finally, consider this the obligatory reminder that success can be fleeting in this game, and championship windows can close much quicker than you expect. The Yankees reported to Spring Training this year with as good a chance to win the World Series as any team in baseball. Now those World Series chances have been severely compromised by injuries. The excuse is built-in. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series this season — not winning the World Series is always the most likely outcome for every team every season — they’ll blame the injuries and trudge forward. You can take that to the bank. Another year with this core in its collective prime will have ticked off the calendar though. The Yankees could’ve added elite prime-aged talent over the winter that would’ve put them in better position to win the World Series with a healthy roster and weather the storm through a freakish injury-plagued season, like the one they’re having now. Instead, they opted to add lower cost, lower impact players and hope they could stave off decline long enough to help the young core get over the top. I know I’m beating a dead horse here but I can’t think of a dead horse that deserves to be beaten longer than this one. The sport’s biggest market and most high profile team cut corners and did not even attempt to assemble the best possible roster over the winter. It is aggravating and the injuries do not make it okay.

Update: Aaron Judge placed on 10-day injured list with oblique strain, Thairo Estrada recalled

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Sunday, 11:01am ET: As expected, Judge has been placed on the 10-day injured list, the Yankees announced. Aaron Boone called it a “pretty significant” strain and did not have a timetable for Judge’s return. Thairo Estrada was called up to fill the roster spot for the time being. The Yankees now have 13 players on the injured list.

Saturday, 4:34pm ET: Judge has a left oblique issue and is heading for an MRI, the Yankees announced. “Probably not, no” Aaron Boone said when asked whether Judge might be able to avoid the injured list.

3:17pm ET: Well this is potentially terrible. Aaron Judge exited this afternoon’s game with an apparent injury after a single to right field in the sixth inning. Replays showed him grabbing at his left side, which is a pretty good indication it’s his oblique, but we’ll see. He did not appear to lobby to stay in.

Here’s video of the injury:

Judge is the Yankees’ best hitter and best all-around player, and, as we saw last year, they are not the same team without him in the lineup. Losing him for any stretch of time would be devastating even if the Yankees were perfectly healthy otherwise. That is most certainly not the case though.

The Yankees do not have any 40-man roster outfielders in Triple-A Scranton. They’re all in the big leagues already. Trey Amburgey, Billy Burns, and Zack Zehner are the healthy actual outfielders with the RailRiders right now. First baseman Ryan McBroom can play some outfield as well.

Gary Sanchez is expected back next week and Giancarlo Stanton maybe not too long after that. The Yankees will probably have to roll with a Clint Frazier-Brett Gardner-Mike Tauchman outfield until Stanton (or Judge) returns, with Mike Ford at DH. Yeesh.

The Yankees have not yet released an update on Judge — the injury just happened a few minutes ago — and, if it is indeed his oblique, he’s likely heading for an MRI and whatnot. Could be a little while before we get definitive word about anything. Keep your fingers crossed and stay tuned.

Yankeemetrics: Bronx is burning (April 12-14)

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(Getty)

April 12: No lead is safe anymore
The Yankees returned to the Bronx on a rainy Friday night and picked up right where they left off when they departed Texas — blowing a lead and losing another game.

The loss dropped them to 5.5 games behind in the AL East, putting them in an unprecedented hole in the division race. It was the first time they trailed by more than five games in the standings this early into the season (13th game) since 1984, when the Tigers won 16 of their first 17 games and ran away with the AL East crown.

It was a collective dumpster-fire performance by the pitching staff. J.A. Happ was awful from the start (six runs allowed on nine hits) and continued his trend of inefficient, ineffective pitching this season (88 pitches, 12 outs). For the third time in three starts, he was unable to get more than one out in the fifth inning before getting pulled.

Before Happ, the last two Yankee pitchers to last no more than 4 1/3 innings in each of their first three starts of the season were Phil Hughes (2011) and Chien-Ming Wang (2009) … and both of those guys went on the DL after their third start.

After the Yankees pulled within a run in the bottom of the sixth, Chad Green came into the game in the next frame and sealed the loss by allowing back-to-back homers. It was the first time as a reliever he gave up multiple homers in a game. He has pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed three homers. In 2017, he allowed four homers in 69 innings pitched.

(Getty)

April 13: CC The Great
The Yankees briefly snapped out of their slump on Saturday. They blanked the White Sox 4-0 thanks to a vintage performance from CC Sabathia and a dose of smallball offense.

Sabathia and three relievers combined to give up just one hit and no walks, the fourth game in Yankee Stadium history (old or new) that the Yankees pitchers didn’t walk a batter and allowed no more than one hit. The other three times? David Cone’s perfecto (July 19, 1999), David Wells’ perfecto (May 17, 1998) and Don Larsen’s perfecto (Oct. 8, 1956).

Sabathia was spectacular in his 19th and final season debut, delivering a performance — though abbreviated — that statistically might rank among the best of his big-league career. He retired 15 of the 16 batters faced, allowing only a third-inning single. It was the first game in Sabathia’s career that he gave up one or fewer baserunners (while pitching more than an inning). The big lefty also re-wrote the franchise record books:

The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the seventh with a couple manufactured runs:

  • bases-loaded RBI single by Luke Voit (who is a cool 7-for-18 and 16 RBI with the bags full in his career)
  • bases-loaded sac fly by Kyle Higashioka (the first sac fly of his MLB career!)
  • perfect safety squeeze bunt by Tyler Wade (the first successful sac bunt of his MLB career!)

Aaron Judge then added another run in the eighth with a solo shot that just cleared the right-field porch. It had a Statcast-projected distance of 335 feet, the shortest home run of his career.

(New York Post)

Tanaka slammed, bats crumble
Any sliver of optimism coming from Saturday’s win was quickly erased in Sunday’s 5-2 loss. They’ve now dropped each of their first three series at Yankee Stadium; the last time that happened was 1982 (a forgettable season that included three managers and 83 losses). Even worse the three series losses have come against the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles — teams that averaged 104 losses last year and are projected to have three of the five worst records in MLB this season.

The game followed a very familiar — and depressing — script, with the Yankees taking an early lead, blowing it and the offense unable to mount a comeback.

The facts: The Yankees have held a lead in 14 of 15 games and are 6-8 in those games; they’ve scored first in 12 of 15 games and are 5-7 in those games.

  • 8 blown-lead losses are tied with the Royals for the most in MLB.
  • Last year they didn’t suffer their 8th blown-lead loss until June 24.
  • Last year they won 80% of their games in which they had a lead (second-best record in MLB), and the MLB-wide win percentage is 70%.
  • 7 losses when scoring first are the most in MLB this season.
  • Last year they didn’t get their 7th scoring-first loss until July 15
  • Last year they won 81% of their games when scoring first (second-best record in MLB) and the MLB-wide win percentage is 67%

Masahiro Tanaka cruised through the first three frames, striking out five of the first seven batters he faced. But he unraveled in the fourth, loading the bases with one out, before Tim Anderson pummeled a hanging splitter for a game-changing grand slam. It was the fourth career grand slam allowed by Tanaka, and all four have come since 2017. The only other pitcher to give up four slams in that span is J.A. Happ.

As nasty as Tanaka’s splitter can be when he locates it down in the zone or in the dirt, it’s a meatball pitch when he can’t command it.

(Sunday vs White Sox)

And so far this year, he’s struggled to keep the pitch out of the hitter’s attack zone more than in any previous season. Here’s his percentage of splitters thrown in the heart of the zone:

2019 – 30%
2018 – 21%
2017 – 21%
2016 – 16%
2015 – 14%
2014 – 15%

Tanaka was terrible but the offense was just as awful, scoring only two runs on four hits; from the fourth through ninth innings, just two Yankees reached base and neither of those guys made it to second base.

Yankeemetrics: Crash Landing in Houston (April 8-10)

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(Getty)

April 8: Bullpen Bummer
The Yankees road trip continued to Houston and the series began with a familiar story: another wasted another gem by Masahiro Tanaka as the much-hyped bullpen blew a late lead and instead the Yankees end up with a painful loss.

Since joining the Astros in late-summer 2017 — and prior to Monday — Justin Verlander had dominated the Yankees, allowing just two runs in 30 2/3 IP (0.59 ERA). Somehow the Yankees finally made him look human, scoring three runs in six innings off him. Aaron Judge had two hits — including an opposite-field laser shot into the rightfield seats — and a walk; entering this series, Judge was 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts against Verlander, his worst 0-fer vs any pitcher.

Tanaka was stellar in holding the Astros to one run on three hits in six innings. His 1.47 ERA is easily the best of his MLB career through this first three starts. It’s also a near-360 reversal from his notable early-season struggles in recent years, when he had a 5.19 ERA last year and a 8.36 ERA in 2017 after three turns.

Adam Ottavino allowed the go-ahead run after issuing a one-out walk and consecutive singles by Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa, the latter a dribbler towards first base that went 22 feet and had an exit velocity of 28.9 mph. Prior to that meltdown, Ottavino had not allowed a hit or run in his first five appearances of the season.

(USA Today)

April 9: Bullpen Bummer II
Another day, another game, another brutal and crushing loss thanks another bullpen implosion.

Luke Voit staked the Yankees to an early 1-0 lead with a solo homer to dead-center field. We know Voit has big muscles, and one good use for those big muscles is destroying baseballs to the farthest reaches of the park, notably deep center field. Since the start of last season (through Tuesday), 384 players had hit at least 40 balls to center; Voit’s 1.065 slugging percentage on batted balls to center ranked first in that group.

On Tuesday it was Jonathan Holder and Chad Green’s turn to play the starring roles in the late-inning collapse. Holder allowed the game-tying run in the seventh on back-to-back doubles by Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley.

Bregman’s double was the result of a bad defensive misplay and awkward dive by Clint Frazier. Per Statcast tracking, the ball had a catch probability of 95 percent. (Catch probability is defined as the likelihood that a batted ball to the outfield will be caught, based on four data points: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? 3. What direction did he need to go in? 4. Was proximity to the wall a factor?)

Through Tuesday, Frazier had three batted balls hit to him with a catch probability of less than 99 percent (routine play) but greater than 50 percent (50/50 play). He missed the catch on all three of those defensive plays.

Green took the loss, charged with the three runs allowed in eighth. It was the first appearance of his career that he gave up at least three runs and got fewer than three outs.

Knowing that it’s still super-early into the season and that the following stats get the small-sample-size warning, here are some numbers to chew on (through Tuesday’s games):

  • Three blown saves and four bullpen losses were both tied for the MLB lead
  • Two losses (Monday and Tuesday) when leading at the end of the sixth inning; only Cubs and Rockies had more (3). Yankees last year had only five such losses, tied for fewest in MLB.
  • Four losses when tied at the end of the seventh inning, the most in MLB this season. Yankees had only seven last year.
(Getty)

April 10: Paxton Pummeled
At least there was no lead for the bullpen to blow on Wednesday night. That’s about the only “positive” thing you can say about the terrible 8-6 loss they suffered as the road trip came to a depressing end in Houston, capping the first-ever series sweep by the Astros over the Yankees. Is this a good time to mention that there are still 150 games left in the season?

The Yankees and its fans were feeling pretty good three pitches into the game when Gardy went Yardy for his 15th career leadoff homer but those good feelings were quickly erased when James Paxton coughed up a solo homer to Jose Altuve and an RBI triple by Yuli Gurriel in the bottom of the frame. Paxton dominated the Astros in four starts last year (4-0, 2.05 ERA) and had a 1.89 ERA in eight starts against them from 2017-18, but this game was a complete disaster:

James Paxton vs Astros
IP Runs HR Batters Faces
2019 4 5 2 21
2018 26.1 6 1 105

Despite Paxton’s track record of success against the Astros, this loss was hardly surprising based on more recent team trends:

  • The Yankees fell to 4-6 when scoring first this season. Last year they had the second-best record when scoring first, winning 81 percent of those games. On average, teams that score first go on to win 66 percent of the time.
  • This was the 11th time in 12 games this season that the Yankees held a lead … and they are 5-6 in those games. Last year they had a .797 win percentage in such games. The only other teams this season with a below-.500 record when leading at any point in the game are the Red Sox (3-6) and Royals (2-7).
  • Eight of their 12 games have been decided by two runs or fewer, and they are 2-6 in those games, one of the five worst marks in MLB. Last year the Yankees had a .561 win percentage in those games, seventh-best in the majors.

The Yankees put their rally caps on in the eighth inning and mounted a gutsy near-comeback to pull within a run. But Gary Sanchez, inserted in the lineup to pinch hit for Tyler Wade with two outs and a man on third, struck out to end the inning. In a very small sample, El Gary has been … umm … not good when coming to the plate cold off the bench:

Yankeemetrics: Bronx Bombers invade Baltimore (April 4-7)

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(AP)

April 4: Happy Gleyber Day
The Yankees kicked off their first road trip of the season in Baltimore with a 8-4 win (crazy, eh?), as Gleyber Torres produced a career-best performance that re-wrote the franchise record books.

A happy ending could hardly have been predicted after a horrible first inning in which James Paxton gave up a leadoff homer, two walks, an RBI single, a run-scoring balk and a run-scoring wild pitch, before finally striking out the final two batters to end the inning. 3-0 hole, 24 outs to go … no problem, right?

Yankees #FightingSpirit made its first appearance of the season as they rallied from that three-run deficit to get a much-needed victory. Last year the team won only one game — at Citi Field against the Mets on June 9 — when trailing by at least three runs at the end of the first frame.

Torres started his monster game with a solo homer in the third inning, the 25th of his career. At age 22 and 112 days old, he became the third-youngest Yankee to reach that milestone, behind only Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle.

But he was just getting warmed up …

Torres came to the plate in the sixth inning with the Yankees trailing 4-2 and two men on base, and did what he does best — smash a three-run dinger put the Yankees ahead for good. If there is such thing as a clutch gene, Torres might have it, and the numbers in “high leverage” pressure situations give us some data to back it up.

Following that homer, Torres had a .444/.479/.867 line with six homers and 31 RBI in 49 high-leverage plate appearances. That seems … good? Since the start of last year, 232 players (as of Friday) had at least 40 high-leverage plate appearances. Here’s where Torres’ numbers rank among those 232:

BA OBP SLG HR RBI wOBA wRC+
Torres .444 .479 .867 6 31 .560 266
MLB Rank 1st 11th 1st 2nd 1st 1st 1st

His final boxscore stats of four hits (2 homers, 1 double, 1 single) and four RBI put him in the company of a couple pinstriped legends.

  • He is the second Yankee shortstop with at least four hits, including two or more homers, in a game on the road, joining Derek Jeter on May 8, 2011 at Texas.
  • It was his third career multi-homer game; the only Yankee with more before age 23 was Joe DiMaggio (8!)
  • He is the second-youngest Yankee to produce at least 11 total bases and drive in four-or-more runs in a game, behind only a 21-year-old DiMaggio (June 24, 1936).
(UPI)

April 6: Red Thunder is Rolling
The Yankees overcame a messy mix of bad baserunning, bad defense and bad bullpen management to put together their first win streak of the season. (Not)Shockingly, dingers saved the day in their 6-4 win on Saturday.

The most glaring wasted opportunity came in the sixth inning when the Yankees had the bases loaded with no outs … and scored zero runs. In that situation, based on recent historical numbers, a team is expected to score a run 86.1 percent of the time and score an average 2.3 runs after loading the bases with no outs.

Aaron Judge kept the Yankees in the game with his bat, socking two dingers for his eighth career multi-homer game. Did you forget that he loves to smash baseballs vs this team? Four of those eight two-homer games have come against the Orioles. They were also his 84th and 85th career homers, in his 302nd career game; the only player in MLB history to reach 85 homers quicker than Judge was Ryan Howard (283 games).

After the O’s rallied to take a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the seventh, Clint Frazier put on the hero’s cape and saved the day with a ginormous three-run blast in the top of the eighth. Let’s celebrate with this #FunFact:

#TooManyHomers
The Yankees finally pushed above the .500 mark with a dinger-happy 15-3 win to sweep the Orioles in Baltimore. It was the first time since 2003 (at Toronto) that the Yankees swept their first road series of the season (h/t @CharlieRGa). And the win extended their win streak in Baltimore to eight games, their longest road win streak against the O’s since the franchise moved to the Charm City in 1954. But we’re burying the lead here …

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname and put on a fun power show , slugging seven homers, one shy of the team record. Overall, its the fifth time they’ve gone deep at least seven times in a game and the first time since July 31, 2007 vs White Sox at Yankee Stadium. The last time they hit seven-or-more homers in a road game was May 30, 1961 against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. The players with dingers that day: Mickey Mantle (2), Roger Maris (2), Yogi Berra and Bill Skowron (2).

Gleyber Torres got the home run derby started with a solo blast in the first inning to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead. More than half (14) of his 27 career homers have either tied the game or put the Yankees ahead. That’s good, I think.

Clint Frazier was the next guy to join the home run party in the second inning, and then capped off his career-best four-hit day with a ninth-inning shot for his first career multi-homer game. Congrats Clint, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: The last Yankee outfielder under age-25 with at least four hits, including two homers, in a game was Mickey Mantle on May 18, 1956 vs White Sox.

And we keep burying the lead …

(AP)

Gary Sanchez wins our Gold Star of the game thanks to his historic three-homer, six-RBI effort. This one deserves a bullet-point recap:

  • Youngest Yankee (26 years old) with at least three homers in a game since Bobby Murcer (24 years old) did it on June 24, 1970.
  • First Yankee with at least three homers in a game vs the Orioles since they moved to Baltimore in 1954. The only Yankees to homer three times in a game vs the Orioles/Browns franchise came back when they were known as the St. Louis Browns: Bill Dickey (July 26, 1939) and Joe DiMaggio (June 13, 1937).
  • Third player in Yankees history to hit six homers this early into the season (9 team games), joining Alex Rodriguez (2007) and Graig Nettles (1974).
  • Youngest player in franchise history with three homers and six-or-more RBI in a game on the road. The only player younger than Sanchez to do this in home pinstripes was Ben Chapman (23 years old) on July 9, 1932 vs the Tigers.

And our signature #FunFact of the game — six of his eight total hits this season have gone into the seats for souvenirs:

Five bold predictions for the 2019 Yankees

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(Presswire)

In less than 28 hours the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Spring Training really flew by this year even though it seemed like someone got hurt every other day. Thank goodness it’s over, both Spring Training and an offseason that was frustrating for fans (of all teams) more often than not.

Since Opening Day is tomorrow, it’s time for what has become my annual bold predictions post. Two years ago I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I trimmed it to five bold predictions last year and went 0-for-5. That’s more like it. Fewer predictions with a greater emphasis on bold. That’s the point, right?

Well, anyway, here are my five hopefully bold enough predictions for the 2019 Yankees, listed in no particular order. We’ll come back and see how I did in a few months.

Judge and Stanton will combine for 116 home runs

The Yankees set several home run records last season, mostly notably the single-season record with 267 homers, but the whole “first team to get 20 homers from every lineup spot” thing is my favorite record. That is insane. That deep attack is how the Yankees were able to set the single-season homer record despite losing Aaron Judge to a wrist injury for seven weeks and others underperforming.

Breaking the home run record again this season is a very possible. It’ll take good health, something the Yankees don’t have right now, but it is possible. My focus is another home run record though. I’m predicting Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will combine for 116 homers, the most ever by two teammates in history. Only five sets of teammates have ever combined for as many as 100 homers in a season.

  1. 1961 Yankees (115): Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54)
  2. 2001 Giants (110): Barry Bonds (73) and Rich Aurilia (37)
  3. 1927 Yankees (107): Babe Ruth (60) and Lou Gehrig (47)
  4. 1998 Cardinals (101): Mark McGwire (70) and Ray Lankford (31)
  5. 2002 Rangers (100): Alex Rodriguez (57) and Rafael Palmeiro (43)

Judge and Stanton combined to hit 65 home runs last season, so, even as good as they are, they only got a little more than halfway to my boldly predicted total of 116. Here’s the thing though: Judge and Stanton combined to hit 111 home runs in 2017. Not as teammates, of course, but they combined for 111 homers. Judge hit a rookie record 52 homers and Stanton hit an MLB best 59 homers with Miami.

These two have already come pretty close to 116 homers! Stanton will play the entire 2019 season at 29 and Judge will turn 27 in a few weeks, so they’re both very much in the primes of their careers. Also, Stanton will presumably be more comfortable in year two in New York, and he gets to play in Yankee Stadium. I mean, the guy hit 59 homers while playing his home games in spacious Marlins Park. Why can’t he hit 60-65 in a friendlier ballpark in the Bronx?

Judge and Stanton combining for 116 homers means one of them will almost certainly have to hit at least 62 homers, which would pass Maris and set a new American League single-season home run record. I suppose they could split it right down the middle and hit 58 each. The more likely scenario is one has a historic record-breaking season while the other merely has a monster MVP caliber season. It could happen!

Paxton will receive the most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens

The last Yankee to win the Cy Young award is Roger Clemens in 2001. He went 20-1 in his first 30 starts that year, and that created a Cy Young narrative that was more or less unbreakable. Going 20-1 (he finished 20-3) was hard to ignore even though new Yankees teammate Mike Mussina (3.15 ERA and +7.1 WAR) had an objectively better season than Clemens (3.51 ERA and +5.7 WAR).

Since 2001, eleven different players have combined for 16 instances of a Yankee receiving Cy Young votes. Most notably, Mariano Rivera was the runner-up to Bartolo Colon in 2005 and Chien-Ming Wang was the runner-up to Johan Santana in 2006. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep and a first place vote equals five points, a second place vote equals four points, all the way on down to one point for a fifth place vote. The most points wins.

The most Cy Young points tallied by a Yankee since Clemens was not Luis Severino two years ago. It was CC Sabathia in 2010. He threw 237.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA and +6.4 WAR that season, and finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez and David Price. Here are the top Cy Young point totals among Yankees since Clemens:

  1. 2010 CC Sabathia: 102 points
  2. 2017 Luis Severino: 73 points
  3. 2005 Mariano Rivera: 68 points
  4. 2011 CC Sabathia: 63 points
  5. 2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 51 points
  6. 2004 Mariano Rivera: 27 points
  7. Ten instances with 13 or fewer points

For reference, American League Cy Young winners have averaged 166.4 voting points over the last ten years. (The National League average is a bit higher because Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the late Roy Halladay skewed it with their overwhelming greatness.)

With all due to respect to Masahiro Tanaka, who is forever cool with me, James Paxton is the Yankees’ best chance at Cy Young votes this year given Severino’s injury. Paxton has flashed ace ability in the past — at one point last May he struck out 16 and threw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts — but he hasn’t had that complete, fully healthy ace season yet. Last year he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA. The year before it was 136 innings with a 2.98 ERA.

Blake Snell lowered the Cy Young threshold last year by throwing only 180.2 innings, the fewest ever by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season. Of course, Snell also became the first American League starter with a sub-2.00 ERA since peak Pedro Martinez, so those 180.2 innings were super high-quality. Point is though, winning the Cy Young with only 180 or so innings is no longer impossible. You just need to be really, really good.

The bold prediction here is Paxton will not only stay healthy and get to 180 innings or thereabouts, but that he’ll also perform as well as 2017 on a rate basis. Even with the move from Safeco Field T-Mobile Park into Yankee Stadium. That means a 3.00 ERA or so, a FIP about a half-a-run lower, a strikeout rate approaching 30%, and nearly five strikeouts for every one walk. Add in the “new guy carrying to the Yankees to the postseason” narrative, and there you go. Even if he doesn’t win the award, Paxton will rake in Cy Young points.

Andujar will finish the year as an above-average defender

Perhaps my boldest prediction ever. I’m a longtime Andujar believer — what’s a good fan club name, the FANdujars? — and yes, I know he was atrocious defensively last season. Defensive Runs Saved data goes back to 2003 and includes over 31,000 individual player seasons. Last year Andujar finished with the 25th worst rating (-25 runs) in DRS history, sandwiched right between 2004 Bernie Williams (-26 runs) and 2007 Derek Jeter (-24 runs). Eek.

Like I said though, I am an Andujar believer, and I’m boldly buying into all the defensive work he did over the winter and in Spring Training, as well as a year’s worth of MLB experience. Being a rookie in the big leagues isn’t easy, especially not in New York with a Yankees team that is in the race. It’s pretty remarkable Andujar and Gleyber Torres were as productive as they were last season. There’s a lot to absorb during that first year in the show.

Andujar (and Torres) knows what to expect now, and he’s a very hard worker who’s spent a lot of time working on his defense the last five months. A lot. I expect all that work to pay off this summer. We’re going to see more plays like this …

… and fewer missed dives and double-clutches and short-hopped throws. Will Andujar be Adrian Beltre? Maybe! But no, probably not. I’m going with above-average, and, just to be completely upfront about this, I am totally claiming victory here if Andujar finishes the season at, like, +0.1 UZR with the other defensive metrics in the negative. One stat in plus territory, even by a tiny little bit, works for me.

Ottavino will lead the Yankees in saves

On paper, Adam Ottavino is what, fourth on the closer depth chart? Aroldis Chapman will again go into the season as the ninth inning guy, as he should, and my hunch is Zack Britton is next in line for save opportunities over Dellin Betances whenever Chapman needs a day. Either way, it’s Britton and Betances behind Chapman in either order, which means Ottavino is fourth at best. Maybe he’s even behind Chad Green? Could be.

Even at fourth on the closer depth chart, you don’t have to try real hard to envision Ottavino getting save chances at some point. I’m worried this bold prediction isn’t all that bold. Betances is already hurt, and while it’s not expected to be a long-term injury, you never really know with shoulders. He might not be the same dominant Dellin when he returns. That means Ottavino would have one fewer player standing in his way for save chances.

I didn’t love the decision to re-sign Zack Britton — like the rest of the Yankees’ free agent activity, it was fine and nothing more — because his strikeouts have gone down and his walks have gone up, and hitters aren’t chasing out of the zone nearly as much as they did a few years ago. For a 31-year-old reliever who’s missed a bunch of time with injuries the last two years, expecting Britton to be good rather than great isn’t crazy. I mean, look at this:

As for Chapman, he looked sneaky crummy this spring, with a fastball that sat mostly 94-96 mph rather than 97-98 mph. I know it’s only Spring Training, believe me, but Chapman’s fastball averaged 99.1 mph last March. For a guy who’s already losing velocity, seeing mid-90s rather than upper-90s this spring was a little worrisome. Hopefully he will regain those last few miles-an-hour as the weather warms up and the ninth inning adrenaline flows.

Even then, Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list in 2017 (shoulder) and 2018 (knee), and had to be demoted out of the closer’s role each year. It wouldn’t be the most surprisingly thing in the world if it were to happen again. Between Betances already being hurt and Britton and Chapman showing signs of decline, it sure seems like Ottavino is closer to save chances than it may appear given the other names in the bullpen.

If Ottavino leads the Yankees in saves — ahem, when he leads the Yankees in saves — my guess is he’ll do so with a low total like 18 saves. Ottavino has 18 saves, Chapman has 17 saves, Britton has 14 saves, something like that. It won’t be Ottavino with 42 saves and the runner-up with five saves or something like that. The Yankees have a historically great bullpen on paper. I’m still boldly predicting Ottavino will have to save the day in the ninth inning.

Romine will get an extension before Judge

Look, this probably won’t happen seeing how it wouldn’t qualify as a bold prediction if it were likely, but folks, get ready for Austin Romine to get a contract extension before other core players. Romine is due to become a free agent after the season and …

  • … the Yankees love him. Absolutely love him.
  • … Romine will be cheap, which presumably makes coming to terms easier.
  • … the free agent market is increasingly hostile toward players, hence all the recent extensions.

“I’d love to start, but I love being here. I like my job. I like this team. I’m looking forward to being on another winning team,” said Romine to Randy Miller recently. The American League catching picture stinks right now. Romine very well might get offers to start next winter, which is why I expect the Yanks to swoop in with an extension offer sooner rather than later. Two years and $5M seems reasonable.

As for Judge, he will earn $684,300 this year, his final season as a dirt cheap pre-arbitration player. The recent Alex Bregman extension (six years, $100M) and less recent Mike Trout extension (six years, $144.5M) indicate a Judge extension will fall in the six-year, $120M range. Bregman and Trout signed their deals at the same service time level as Judge, so that’s the ballpark number. He’s a $20M per year player on an extension.

During a radio interview earlier this week, Judge said “we haven’t spoken about that” when asked about a possible extension. He did kinda sorta indicate his agent may be talking to the Yankees though. Hal Steinbrenner more or less ducked a question about possible extensions in a radio interview the same day. Brendan Kuty has a transcript:

“I’ll leave that to (general manager Brian Cashman),” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to get into who we have talked to about the concept or who we do want to or don’t want to. But I will say it’s obvious we can’t do everybody at once. There are numerous situations we’re looking at when it comes to major league service time and the other part of the puzzle is, how conducive is the player to a concept like that. More to come. Stay tuned. We love all of our players. We love our young players. And we want them wearing pinstripes.”

This is my thinking: Judge already has lucrative endorsement deals with Pepsi and Adidas, among other #brands, and he’s a year away from a potential record arbitration payday. Kris Bryant ($10.85M), Francisco Lindor ($10.55M), and Mookie Betts ($10.5M) are the high-water marks for first year arbitration-eligible players. Repeating his 2018 season in 2019 (minus the wrist injury) would put Judge in position to crack $11M next year.

Because the endorsements give him some level of financial security, Judge is in good position to go year-to-year in arbitration to maximize his earning potential, or at least drive a real hard bargain in extension talks. He’s not stupid. He knows he’s the face of the franchise and one of the game’s biggest and most marketable stars. Passing on a nine-figure extension after only two full MLB seasons can’t be easy. Judge is one of the few players who could swing it.

The Yankees control Judge through 2022, so, while they surely want to lock him up at a below-market rate as soon as possible, there’s not much urgency. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Romine, on the other hand, can bolt after the season, and the generally weak catching situation around baseball means it’s possible another team will lure him away with a starting job. Time is of the essence with Romine. Free agency is months away, not years.

Furthermore, Romine is going to be cheap, and that makes coming to an agreement easier. The bigger the contract, the more complicated it gets. Martin Maldonado and James McCann both inked one-year deals worth $2.5M over the winter. Doubling that figures to catch Romine’s attention (and would double his career earnings) and could lead to a quick deal. It makes too much sense not to happen. Judge is playing the long game. Romine … is not.

At the risk of looking foolish, some optimistic spring training performance takeaways

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(Presswire)

Spring training is in the books and opening day is just days away. The slate has been wiped clean and all camp performances, good or bad, get a reset. By now, we all know better than to make strong declarations based on Grapefruit League statistics. It sure is fun to do, though. And hey, what’s my risk of interpreting how certain players performed? I can live with looking silly.

A handful of Yankees had intriguing numbers over the last month or so. We won’t know how significant those until later in the regular season, but I think we can make meaningful observations from some of the results.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will strike out less

Both Judge and Stanton struck out about 30 percent of the time last season. If Grapefruit League play is any indicator, the duo will put the ball in play more often this year. Stanton fanned in 22.9 percent of plate appearances while Judge went down on strikes 26.7 percent of the time. Of course, neither accrued more than 48 plate appearances, so make of it what you will.

Despite the small sample, we do know that Judge has been trying to cut down on whiffs in camp. With two strikes, he’s eschewed his leg kick for a subtle toe tap. It’s seemingly worked out well thus far. Why can’t it continue to work in the regular season?

As for Stanton, there isn’t a discernible adjustment. At least, not one that I’m aware of. Nonetheless, he is just a season removed from the 23.6 percent rate he posted in his final season with Miami. Last year could have been a blip. As his spring training performance shows, this is who he is at his best.

Clint Frazier has some rust to shake off

This statement isn’t out on a limb, unlike the strikeout talk from the prior section. Frazier hit .149/.228/.245 in 57 plate appearances. He had the most opportunities out of anyone in camp, and understandably so. With much of last season lost due concussion recovery, it’s been a long time since Clint has been at full strength. Now that he’s finally cleared, there are some cobwebs for him to shake off.

It’s tough luck that Frazier still needs more time to get on track. Obviously, his health problems were the biggest misfortune of all. Pretty scary, in particular. But also, he’s missing an opportunity to grab a job from the outset of the season because Aaron Hicks is down for the count. He should still get an opportunity later this year, but he’ll have to wait.

Greg Bird is (finally) healthy

Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me…thrice? To be honest, I’m not sure how many times I have gotten excited about Bird at this point, only to be inevitably let down. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to read into his spring training numbers and not think he’s healthy. The Yankees gave him 54 trips to the plate in camp and he capitalized with a 1.091 OPS. Can’t I get a little excited?

Oh, but that elbow of his. He was hit there by a pitch last week. Here we go again, right? Well, it seems like he’s going to be fine, for now. I get the skepticism with Bird, but I’m ready to dive back in and believe. I think it’s easier this time because he’s the underdog to Luke Voit, and if Bird does indeed flame out again, the Yankees should be fine at the position anyway.

Tommy Kahnle is back

It’s always good to draw conclusions from seven and a third innings pitched. In that workload, Kahnle struck out nine and allowed only one earned run. His velocity appears to be back and not only is he healthy, but he’s also in far better shape than before. The way he took care of his body before this season was…something.

It’s going to be a huge plus to have a revitalized Kahnle with Dellin Betances on the shelf to start the year. It looks Kahnle’s 2017-self, minus all of the caffeine and junk food, is back and here to stay.

Stephen Tarpley is for real

The 26-year-old southpaw was named the team’s best rookie in camp, and deservedly so. He allowed no runs, one walk, and six hits in just over 11 innings of work this spring (before last night), which earned him a spot on the opening day roster. Tarpley already began to emerge as an intriguing relief prospect last season and did a nice job in a late summer cameo with the Bombers.

Tarpley is in line to be this year’s Jonathan Holder. He may ride the Scranton shuttle a couple of times early on, but more likely than not, he’s ready to carve out a role in the big leagues for good. His spring training was just a confirmation of his capabilities.