2018 Season Preview Archives - Page 3 of 4

The Forgotten Son(ny) [2018 Season Preview]

March 13, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

There was a great deal of consternation about the state of the Yankees rotation during the off-season, and whether or not that was justified remains an unanswerable question. A great deal of that justification – or lack thereof – hinges upon the fact that the team dramatically upgraded its rotation 2018 outlook well before the off-season began; in point of fact, that upgrade occurred on July 31, 2017, when Sonny Gray was acquired from the Oakland A’s, in exchange for James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, and Jorge Mateo. It seems as though Gray’s place on the team and ability to stabilize the middle of the rotation has been forgotten, be it due to his relatively unassuming performance with the team, or the simple fact that there is little flash to his substance or style. Regardless, Gray is here, and I’m certain the Yankees couldn’t be happier.

The Story So Far

There are two ways to look at Gray’s time in pinstripes thus far. The first is on a simple run-prevention basis, at which he excelled. Gray’s 3.72 ERA with the Yankees translates into a 122 ERA+, which would have been good for tenth in the American League last year, or twentieth in all of baseball. There were concerns about his ability to perform at such a high-level when moving from the pitcher’s paradise that is Oakland Coliseum to the hitter’s haven of Yankee Stadium, and yet he excelled.

Of course, it’s not that simple.

When you look beneath the hood, you see some regression from Gray. His strikeout (down 2.3 percentage points), walk (up 2.2 percentage points), groundball (down 9.4 percentage points), and home run (up 3.8 percentage points) numbers all trended in the wrong direction after the trade, and that can be visualized in his 4.87 FIP with the Yankees. By that measure he overperformed his peripherals significantly, and that’s generally a precursor for regression.

How much of it had to do with Yankee Stadium, though? The short answer is quite a bit. Gray made eleven starts with the Yankees – five at home, and six on the road. The numbers breakdown as follows:

Home: 28.2 IP, 3.8 BB 9, 9.1 K/9, 8 HR, 0.8 GB/FB, 5.65 ERA
Road: 36.2 IP, 3.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 3 HR, 1.1 GB/FB, 2.21 ERA

Gray struck out and walked more batters at home, and allowed way more home runs and fly balls there, as well. This is a small sample size within a small sample size, so it could be a matter of noise, but it’s something that bears watching over time. And it also raises a question:

Does He Pitch Differently In Yankee Stadium?

Not really. Let’s take a look at his pitch usage in pinstripes:

Gray is a legitimate four-pitch pitcher, and he dabbles in a fifth and sixth offering at times. And in 2017, and his career as a whole, he seems to go with whatever’s working over the course of a single game. The fluctuation from game-to-game doesn’t tell us much of anything.

That being said, it may simply be that Gray is nibbling more often at home. That could explain the increase in walks and strikeouts, though he did actually throw more pitches per batter on the road (3.88) than at home (3.82). And, while this doesn’t quite account for his spots within the zone, Gray’s zone-percentage was virtually identical at home and on the road.

There may not be a simple answer to the question regarding Gray’s shakiness at Yankee Stadium, so a “wait and see” approach may be the best approach. It is definitely something that bears watching, though. And, as a reminder:

He Wasn’t A Product Of Oakland Coliseum

Gray has thrown 386.0 IP of 3.50 ERA ball at O.Co, to go along with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He has thrown 384.1 IP elsewhere, with a 3.40 ERA, 8.1 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9. Yankee Stadium may be a different beast than the other parks that Gray has pitched in, but it’s worth remembering that he has been a high-end starter regardless of the ballpark.

The Projection Systems

Steamer: 186.0 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.26 ERA, 4.29 FIP
ZiPS: 168.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.64 ERA, 3.96 FIP
PECOTA: 174.1 IP, 8.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.98 ERA, 4.30 DRA

Not great, Bob.

Steamer and PECOTA are both giving a fair amount of weight to Gray’s injury-riddled and oft-ineffective 2016 – and that’s fair. ZiPS is essentially taking his 2017 at face value and copying and pasting it for 2018. And, given his career to-date, that’s fair, too. If permitted a bit of optimism, I would give the most weight to that.

My Take

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

The New Ace [2018 Season Preview]

March 12, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Luis Severino is 24-years-old. That detail, more so than perhaps anything else I can write, is indicative of just how precocious a talent the Yankees have fronting their rotation. To put that into perspective, he’s fourteen months younger than Jordan Montgomery, and roughly the same age as Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo, and Dillon Tate, and he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball last season.

So what can he do for an encore?

Just How Good Was He In 2017?

Sunny reviewed Severino’s dominant 2017 a few months ago, and it bears reading (or re-reading). He was great in the first half (3.54 ERA in 106.2 IP) and brilliant in the second (2.28 ERA in 86.2 IP), and he avoided any semblance of a prolonged slump. His worst stretch of the season came just before the break, when he posted a 5.46 ERA across five starts; but that 5.46 ERA hides the fact that he still pitched into the 6th inning each time out, while maintaining great walk (2.6 per 9) and strikeout (11.5) rates. And then he reeled off a five-start stretch where he allowed 0 or 1 ER each time out, dropping his season ERA from 3.54 to 2.91 along the way. The flashes of the Severino that frustrated us in 2016 were few and far between last year, as he showcased an uncanny ability to bounceback in a big way time and time again.

Put that all together and Severino had a top-ten finish in the Majors in both incarnations of WAR.

What Changed?

Much of the discussion about 2017 revolved around Severino’s change-up, which he seemingly fell out of love with in 2016. His pitch selections in 2015 and 2017 were virtually identical, though:

Severino basically swapped out change-ups in favor of fastballs in 2016, and it didn’t work out all that well. He went back to the formula that worked quite well in his first taste of the big leagues back in 2015, and he looked dominant once more. It’s a difference of between 3 and 5 change-ups per game or so – but that can be enough to keep the opposing lineup on its heels. It also helped that he increased the velocity gap between his fastball and his off-speed stuff:

Severino has added about 1 MPH to his fastball each year, while noticeably subtracting from his slider and change-up. In 2016, the separation between his fastball and change-up was just under 7 MPH; the difference last year was 10.25 MPH. Precious few starting pitchers have that sort of velocity gap between their fastball and change-up, and most that do are soft tossers like R.A. Dickey or Marco Estrada.

Where Can We Look For Improvements?

Expecting Severino to be better in 2018 is a big ask, considering just how good he was in 2017. And yet there are signs that there is more greatness to come, including his steadily improving velocity, and the fact that he improved so dramatically in the second half. He’s also bigger and stronger this year, which may allow him to pitch deeper into games; I’m not sure how much of a concern that is for a pitcher that made 31 starts and averaged better than 6 IP each time out, but more innings should mean more value.

The key to Severino taking a step forward may well be further reliance on the change-up. His change-up had a pitch value of 9.6 runs last year, which placed him sixth in baseball, sandwiched between Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. Everyone else in the top-ten threw the pitch more often than Severino, though, which is a testament to how good the pitch was. Would throwing it more often mean more value? Not necessarily – but it could be an avenue worth exploring.

The Projection Systems

Steamer: 188.0 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.56 ERA, 3.63 FIP
ZiPS: 187.0 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.13 ERA, 3.10 FIP
PECOTA: 174.0 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.23 ERA, 3.49 DRA

Both ZiPS and PECOTA effectively have Severino repeating his 2017; Steamer is a bit more bearish, but not dramatically so. In fact, the Steamer projection is almost identical to his career line of 9.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.58 ERA, and a 3.63 FIP. And, for what it’s worth, dropping Severino’s Steamer projection into 2017 would have still had him as one of the 20 or 25 best starting pitchers in the game.

My Take

I’m all-in on Severino. I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a bit of regression, if only because he was so darn good in 2017, but I still see him as one of the twenty-five or so best pitchers in the game. He’s young, he improved as the season wore on, and there are tangible reasons for said improvement. That doesn’t mean that we should expect him to find another gear and be Clayton Kershaw East Coast or anything like that – but I’m extremely confident in Severino sitting atop the Yankees rotation for years to come.

Aaron Judge’s Encore [2018 Season Preview]

March 9, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Not even the biggest Aaron Judge fans saw last year coming. Judge blew every reasonable expectation out of the water en route to being named AL Rookie of the Year unanimously, and finishing second in the AL MVP voting. A rookie record 52 homers, an MLB high +8.2 fWAR, and countless jaws dropped with moonshot home runs. What a fun season.

Okay, so what now? Seriously, what does Judge do for an encore?

I’m honestly not sure there’s any sense in trying to figure it out. Judge is an outlier in baseball history and an outlier even today, in an age of big and strong and fast baseball players. He’s bigger and stronger than just about all of them, and faster than most too. (StatCast had him 149th among 451 players in sprint speed last year.) The normal rules of baseball do not apply to Judge.

This much is clear: Judge won’t sneak up anyone this year. At this time last spring he was fighting for a job and trying to prove his 2016 strikeout issues would not hinder him in 2017. Now he’s a known commodity. The biggest homegrown star on a team suddenly loaded with homegrown stars. Teams will build their game plans around Judge and dedicate more time to solving him.

The Yankees have embraced everything about Judge. He’s front and center in every promo and they put The Judge’s Chambers in right field. There is no hedging here. No “let’s wait a year to see if he’s for real before going all-in” or anything like that. Judge is now the face of the Yankees, and it is awesome. Let’s preview his upcoming season.

Should we be worried about the shoulder?

Honestly, I’m not worried at all at this point. Judge had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder that “involved a loose-body removal and cartilage clean-up” back in November, and the rehab timetable had him on track to be ready for Spring Training. And he was. Judge reported to camp with the rest of the position players and participated in the first full squad workout like everyone else.

The Yankees did, however, hold Judge out of the first few Grapefruit League games because, well, why not? It was early in Spring Training and no team is going to push their franchise player when he’s coming off surgery, even a relatively minor surgery. The Yankees took it slow with Judge, and he has since joined the lineup and started playing games. His bat hasn’t come around yet (1-for-10) but it will soon enough. Still three weeks to go before Opening Day.

The shoulder started bothering Judge at some point last summer — he recently admitted it first started to bother him after crashing into the wall making a catch at some point in the first half — and it showed up in his production. We all know about the second half slump. A better indicator of the shoulder issue was his hard contact rate:

Judge hurt his shoulder and his hard contact rate, which was still excellent relative to the rest of the league, declined in the second half. Not a coincidence. Now Judge has a healthy shoulder! And hopefully that allows him to resume hitting the ball obnoxiously hard. I mean, he kinda did at the end of last season anyway, even with the less than 100% shoulder.

There is some level of risk involved in every surgery. In Judge’s case, he’s completed his rehab and has resumed playing in games. He has to get his timing down and otherwise prepare for the season, but the shoulder is healthy, and that’s the most important thing. There wasn’t structural damage — his labrum, rotator cuff, and capsule were fine — and the surgery wasn’t invasive. Worry if you want, but I won’t. Judge is healthy now.

“We’re right on track. I feel good, the shoulder’s been feeling good,” said Judge to Sweeny Murti yesterday. “When I first got down here there was still a little soreness left in there, but this past week especially it’s been pain free, no soreness, feeling great.”

Can he do that again?

Brain: There’s no way Judge can hit like that again.

Heart: Judge is going to be even better this season.

You can make an argument for both. Last season might’ve been a career year for Judge, and now he’ll settle in as a very good player rather than an otherworldly player. Then again, Judge is a smart hitter and he has a better idea how the league will attack him, and he’s entering what should be his prime years, so why can’t he get better?

Like I said before, Judge is an outlier in baseball, and not only because he’s physically huge. Players aren’t supposed to be this productive while striking out that much. I’ve posted this list before and I’m going to post it again. The best seasons by players with a 30% strikeout rate:

Aaron Judge, 2017 Yankees: 173 wRC+
Chris Davis, 2015 Orioles: 149 wRC+
Jack Cust, 2005 Athletics: 145 wRC+
Kris Bryant, 2015 Cubs: 136 wRC+
Adam Dunn, 2010 Nationals: 136 wRC+

Judge will swing and miss as much as anyone. He also hits the ball harder than anyone. So yes, he strikes out, but when he doesn’t strike out, he crushes the ball. Judge’s average exit velocity last season was 94.5 mph. Nelson Cruz was a distant second at 92.8 mph. His average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls was 100.2 mph. Giancarlo Stanton was second at 99.7 mph and Joey Gallo was third at 98.6 mph. Ridiculous.

It’s easy to say Judge won’t repeat his .357 BABIP because basically no one repeats a .357 BABIP, especially someone who strikes out this much. But why wouldn’t we expect Judge to post high BABIPs given how hard he hits the ball? Statcast says had a .444 expected wOBA last season based on the quality of his contact. His actual wOBA was .441. Judge smashed the ball and was rewarded appropriately for it. He didn’t hit into good luck (or bad) luck.

I remember when Mike Trout came up and hit .326/.399/.564 (167 wRC+) with a .383 BABIP as a rookie in 2012, I thought there was no way he’d do that again. Not that he’d become useless or anything, but doing that again is very difficult. Then Trout went out and hit .323/.432/.557 (176 wRC+) with a .376 BABIP the next year, and he’s been that damn good ever since. Shows what I know.

Trout is a special case given his talent, obviously, but you know what? So is Judge. He’s a very smart hitter, he’s proven throughout his career he can make adjustments, and he hits the everloving crap out of the ball. Maybe MLB un-juices the ball this season and Judge doesn’t hit 52 home runs again. I think, even with the strikeouts, he’s going to continue to be a monster. One of the top five or ten hitters in baseball, with on-base ability and power. Last season was not a fluke. Judge is just different.

Where’s he going to play?

The Yankees have to figure out how Stanton and Judge will coexist in the lineup. Chances are they’ll see most of their time in right field and at DH, though there will be times one of them has to play left field. Aaron Boone said earlier this week he’d prefer to move just one guy to left rather than ask both Stanton and Judge to do it. One will be the full-time right fielder, the other will play both corners.

Stanton has already played three games in left field this spring, and at some point Judge will get his chance out there. He’s been working out in left on the backfields — he played some left for Triple-A Scranton as recently as 2016 — and eventually the Yankees will put him out there in a game. Whoever looks more comfortable in left field this spring figures to be the guy who plays there during the regular season.

Both Judge and Stanton are good athletes and good defenders, and once they get some more experience in left field, I expect both to be fine. I do wonder whether the Yankees will decide it’s best to move Judge over to left rather than Stanton because Stanton already has a lot on his plate. He’s joining a new team and is moving to a new city and a new division and all that. Asking him to learn a new position on top of that might be a little too much. I guess we’ll see.

Point is, the Yankees have to figure out the best way to get Judge and Stanton in the lineup, and part of that process will be exposing Judge to left field. It’ll happen soon enough. If he can handle it, great. If not, well the Yankees will figure something out. Judge is a good defender and I suspect he’ll be fine in either corner. It’s just a matter of figuring out the logistics, really. It’ll happen soon enough.

* * *

Judge is basically everything the Yankees could want in a superstar. He’s productive, he socks marketable homers, and he’s unfailingly humble. The attention doesn’t seem to bother him at all, and that’s a trait you need to be a star player in this neck of the woods. Last season was a truly remarkable season for Judge and the expectations this season are enormous, both for him personally and the team as a whole. Everything he’s shown us over the years tells us he is up to the task of meeting — if not exceeding — those expectations.

The Unofficial Captain [2018 Season Preview]

March 8, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Ready to feel old? There are only 91 active players who played a game in the old Yankee Stadium. Only eight of those 91 played in the old Yankee Stadium as a Yankee. The eight: Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, and Chris Stewart. Apparently Stewart played one game for the 2008 Yankees. Who knew?

Anyway, only eight players who played a home game in the old Yankee Stadium are still active today. Pretty crazy, huh? Gardner is the longest tenured Yankee in terms of continual service — Robertson made his MLB debut the day before Gardner, though he spent time with the White Sox — and he is the longest tenured player in the organization overall. No big leaguer or minor leaguer has been a Yankee longer than Gardner, who was drafted in 2005.

It has been nearly a decade since Gardner had to beat out Melky for the center field job. Now he is the club’s elder statesman. The unofficial captain according to basically every Yankee who is asked to name the team leader. (Aaron Judge singled out Gardner for his leadership on a recent R2C2 podcast.) It’s kinda weird. It feels like just yesterday he was the young guy on an aging, veteran team.

For all intents and purposes, things are the same as they’ve always been with Gardner. He was again productive last year, he was mentioned in trade rumors basically all winter, and he is flying under the radar in Spring Training because everyone is focusing on the shiny new addition. That’s the Brett Gardner story. Let’s preview his upcoming season.

Consistency is boring …

… and in that case Gardner qualifies as boring. His power numbers has fluctuated a bit in recent years — Gardner popped a career high 21 dingers in 2017 after hitting only seven in 2016, and obviously the juiced ball has something to do with that — but otherwise his numbers have been remarkably consistent the last few years. Look at this:

	AVG	OBP	BB%	Pitches per PA
2015	.259	.343	10.4%	4.16
2016	.261	.351	11.0%	4.09
2017	.264	.350	10.6%	4.23
Career	.264	.347	10.3%	4.25

Gardner hit .259 with a .345 OBP and a 10.2% walk rate back in 2011, and he saw 4.19 pitches per plate appearance. If I’d just dumped those numbers in front of you, I wouldn’t blame you for thinking they were his 2017 stats. That’s Gardner. He’s going to hit .260-ish with a .350-ish OBP while drawing lots of walks and seeing lots of pitches. It is no surprise then ZiPS projects a .264 AVG, a .347 OBP, and a 10.2% walk rate in 2018. I mean, duh. Those numbers and 20-ish steals — he’s stolen between 16 and 24 bases each of the last five years — are what you’re going to get from Brett.

There were no statistical red flags in Gardner’s game last season. He didn’t swing-and-miss more, he didn’t struggle to get the ball in the air, and his hard contract rate stayed the same. The only reason to worry about a potential decline this season is — and this is a big one — Gardner’s age. He’s 34 now and he’ll turn 35 in August. Gardner plays very hard and he plays hurt, which is admirable, but isn’t exactly conducive to aging well. Chances are Gardner will hit .260-something with a .350-ish OBP because that’s what he always does. With each passing year though, he is more and more at risk of age-related decline. So it goes.

Platoon issues and additional rest

After years of holding his own against southpaws, Gardner has shown a pretty significant platoon split the last two seasons, hitting .276/.367/.429 (116 wRC+) against righties and .230/.307/.313 (69 wRC+) against lefties. That includes a .209/.299/.291 (62 wRC+) line against southpaws last season. So while Gardner’s overall numbers have been ridiculously consistently the last few seasons, his numbers against lefties are trending down.

It is no surprise then that the Yankees have indicated Gardner will get more rest this season, primarily against southpaws. How the roster will work those days — who hits leadoff? who plays left field? — is still being sorted out, but the point is Gardner is going to get more time on the bench this season, particularly when a lefty is on the mound. And that’s perfectly fine. He’s getting up there in age and Gardner always plays hard. Some more rest figures to serve him well going forward. Totally cool with it.

The looming no-trade clause

On or about June 30th of this season, Gardner will receive his ten-and-five full no-trade protection. That is ten years in the big leagues and the last five with the same team. At that point, Gardner will finally have control over the situation after years of trade rumors. He won’t have to go anywhere if he doesn’t want to.

I wouldn’t call it likely, but it is definitely possible the Yankees will look to trade Gardner before his ten-and-five rights kick in. That’s what the Rays did with Evan Longoria. They traded him this winter because he was due to get ten-and-five rights two days — literally two days — into the 2018 season. Tampa traded Longoria and his contract before he receive the ability to block any deal.

Gardner is not signed long-term like Longoria, so the Yankees won’t have the same motivation to shed all those contract years, but the point remains the same. Move Gardner now to clear up luxury tax payroll space and open a spot for a younger player before he has ten-and-five rights and can block a deal. I don’t think the Yankees will trade him. They value him highly. I’m just saying it’s not out of the question.

The looming option decision

This is the final guaranteed season on Gardner’s contract. He’ll make $11.5M this year — his luxury tax hit is $13M — before the Yankees have to make a decision about his $12.5M club option for 2019. Since the option includes a $2M buyout, it is effectively a $10.5M decision. Brian Cashman recently told Kevin Kernan the Yankees haven’t yet thought about Gardner’s future, which doesn’t surprise me. See how the season plays out, then make a decision.

Given his age, the current free agent climate, and the stockpile of young outfielders in the organization, it is entirely possible the Yankees will decline Gardner’s option even if he has another typical Gardner season. Or maybe they’d rip up the option and agree to a new contract, say two years and $16M from 2019-20? I’m not sure. That option decision is coming though, and it is basically impossible to predict what will happen right now. Gardner could decline and the Yankees might still exercise the option because they value his leadership so much. Who knows?

* * *

By sheltering him against lefties and giving him more rest — assuming those things actually happen, of course — the Yankees are reducing Gardner’s on-field role this season. His off-the-field role is unchanged. He’s still a leader in the clubhouse. When Gardner goes the Yankees seem to go. The Yankees are just acknowledging that, at this point of his career, Brett might be better as a 125-game player than a 150-game player.

As for the ten-and-five rights and option decision, that’s something worth worrying about later. The Yankees have yet to receive what they consider an acceptable trade offer for Gardner — I know that because he is still a Yankee — and the option decision is still so far away. Who knows what’ll happen this year. For now, Gardner remains the team’s leadoff hitter and clubhouse leader, and age is pretty much the only reason to believe he might not be the player he was from 2015-17 again in 2018.

So what is a post-breakout Aaron Hicks? [2018 Season Preview]

March 7, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

There’s a version of the 2017 Yankees where Aaron Hicks is a much bigger story.

From the get-go, he was overshadowed by Aaron Judge in a kinda-sorta-maybe rigged battle for right field that you knew Judge was going to win if he hit at all. And then came Judge’s otherworldly rookie season and there was little room for Hicks to find screen time in his own breakout role.

On last year’s postseason coverage, Alex Rodriguez mentioned that Hicks was soft-spoken, so it makes sense that the quiet guy in the clubhouse would be behind the scenes. Still, Hicks did plenty of speaking with his bat and it’s not like Yankee fans didn’t notice No. 31 taking over center field.

As with every breakout season, there comes the inevitable backlash a year later that it’s not sustainable. He can’t replicate that. That wasn’t his true talent level. So here we are: Can Hicks put together just as good of a 2018? Let’s examine further:

Projections

2017 Season: .266/.372/.475, 15 HR, 14.1% BB, 18.6% K, 361 PA

2018 Steamer: .251/.337/.422, 16 HR, 11.5% BB, 19.0% K, 472 PA
ZiPS: .247/.334/.421, 20 HR, 11.6% BB, 20.1% K, 423 PA
PECOTA: .235/.321/.381, 12 HR, 10.8% BB, 21.2% K, 451 PA

Steamer and ZiPS buy some of the breakout while PECOTA simply doesn’t seem him as any different from 2012-16 Hicks. It makes sense stat-wise, particularly when you look at his second-half numbers. His .218/.319/.396 in 119 plate appearances looks a lot like that PECOTA projection.

The other thing you might notice is that he doesn’t have full 600-ish PA-season in any projection. He’s never had more than 390 PAs in a season, so his biggest test will be surpassing that.

Is he really that good a hitter?

In 88 games last year, Hicks batted .266/.372/.475 (127 wRC+) while producing 3.3 fWAR. Some of that wins production was his defensive value (more on that later), but he was a legitimate offensive stud when healthy.

As noted above, there were essentially two different Hicks seasons in 2017: First half and second half. It’s a clean split between the two due to his first oblique injury of the year. His hitting unsurprisingly suffered after coming back from that injury and he dealt with the issue again. Check out his wOBA (the noticeable decline you see in 2017 is right when the oblique injury happened).

Interestingly, his walk rate saw a similar dip, though he showed off his eye with a pair of multi-walk games at the end of the season.

The overall production decline makes sense, though the walk rate is tougher to parse. Was his timing off after the injury? Probably, though his world-beating walk rate for the first couple months of the year was also unsustainable.

Still, Hicks produced at a level he simply hadn’t before. The centerfielder thrived in an everyday role with the same No. of PAs in 35 fewer games. It’s concerning he was limited to just 88 games, but the production is key. The Yankees have outfield depth, so someone making those starts needs to produce.

Hicks lifted the ball more like everyone else in 2017, posting a career-high fly-ball rate. However, he also had a tough to sustain 15.8 percent HR/FB rate. His average estimated HR distance (348 feet) was one of the lowest marks in the league and was, in fact, the lowest for any player with at least 10 homers. Like Didi, that power could be sustainable if you’re pulling the ball at Yankee Stadium like Hicks was.

So it makes sense that Hicks was a better hitter all around at home vs. on the road. Unlike 2016, he wasn’t essentially useless on the road and still posted an above-average wRC+ (118) outside of Yankee Stadium.

Similarly, he was better against southpaws while posting career-best numbers against righties. He hits for more power from the left-side, but his average spikes as a righty. He’s an ideal switch-hitter if he maintains little difference in his platoon splits.

Injury concerns

Each of the last two seasons, Hicks had exactly 361 plate appearances. In 2016, a large reason why he didn’t get a full season’s worth of at-bats was his role as a backup. But he also missed over three weeks with a hamstring injury.

A year later, he had two separate stints on the disabled list with oblique injuries. The concern with Hicks is that he’s very willing to throw his body around on defense to make plays to the point where it could lead to injury (the first oblique injury vs. Texas in June, for example).

This offseason, it appears Hicks dedicated himself to becoming a behemoth of a human being. Muscles upon muscles. I’m a very big fan of swole Aaron Hicks and would like to see those combat muscles for 162 games in 2018.

Defensively sound

The opposing team has a speedy guy on first base and there’s a single up the middle. If Jacoby Ellsbury is in center, that player is going first to third without question. If it’s Aaron Hicks, oh boy, that guy is stopping right in his tracks.

Hicks robbed two grand slams last year and makes up for occasional bad reads with his above-average sprint speed (according to Baseball Savant), making diving catches and strong plays near the wall. You also can’t discuss Hicks’ defensive skills without mentioning his No. 1 tool, his arm. That thing is still a cannon and particularly when compared to Ellsbury’s arm, it’s staggering. It’s gone under the radar how many runners have to go station-to-station instead of taking the extra base because of Hicks’ rocket.

DRS loved him last year as he was tied for seventh with 15 runs saved among outfielders despite playing just 689.2 Inn in the field.) UZR/150 had him fifth. He rated much higher in 2017 than in 2016, which could be partially due to a consistent role in center field instead of bouncing around the outfield.

***

What should we make of Hicks after his breakout 2017? He’s clearly a lot more talented than his below replacement level 2016, but his second half is cause for concern. Even with the presence of a cadre of elite outfielders flanking him, Hicks still has an important role and the team could use a lot more than 361 plate appearances over 88 games from him.

Even if he can’t return to his first-half excellence of 2017, he can be valuable as long as he stays on the field and does the small things. Use his eye to force pitchers to work at the bottom of the order. Get on base at a decent clip. Hold runners with his arm. The power and the overall average is extra. I don’t see him getting 600 plate appearances due to the Yankees’ superior outfield depth, but expecting 500 is not unreasonable for Hicks.

The New Guy [2018 Season Preview]

March 6, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last season the Yankees rostered the American League’s best player by fWAR, a hulking right-handed hitter who led the league in home runs while also playing strong right field defense and being an all-around swell dude. This offseason they went out an added the National League version.

Giancarlo Stanton is a New York Yankee. Have you heard? Not many people know that.

A December trade brought Stanton to the Yankees at the cost of Starlin Castro and two prospects (Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers). Stanton used his no-trade clause to block deals to the Giants and Cardinals, allowing Brian Cashman to swoop in and acquire the reigning NL MVP in what amounts to a salary dump. Now the Yankees have Aaron Judge and the closest thing in baseball to Aaron Judge.

The 28-year-old Stanton — he turned 28 in November, so he’ll spend the entire 2018 season at that age — authored a .281/.376/.631 (156 wRC+) batting line with 59 home runs for the Marlins last season, a season that included an outrageous second half in which he hit .287/.393/.702 (175 wRC+) with 33 homers in 73 games. At one point he hit 30 home runs in a span of 48 games. Good gravy.

Alas, Stanton fell one short of becoming only the sixth man in history to hit as many as 60 homers in a single season. Barry Bonds, Roger Maris, Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Sammy Sosa are the only guys who’ve done it. Stanton was thisclose. That doesn’t take away from his remarkable season, of course. In a season of juiced baseballs and a record number of home runs, no one was better at hitting home runs than Giancarlo.

The Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ordered fire sale in Miami allowed Stanton to fall into the Yankees’ lap at a bargain price, no offense to Castro and the two prospects. Now the Yankees will enjoy having the game’s two best power hitters — two best power hitters of 2017, at the very least — in the same lineup for at least another three seasons. Let’s preview the upcoming season for the new guy.

So what are the expectations, realistically?

I’m thinking 75 dingers. Why not? If you had to pick one player to break the single-season home run record in 2018, wouldn’t you pick Stanton in Yankee Stadium? He hit 59 homers last year — that is the ninth highest single-season home run total in history, you know — and he did it in a pitcher’s ballpark. Consider the FanGraphs’ home run park factors (100 is average):

Marlins Park: 90 for RHB
Yankee Stadium: 112 for RHB

In all seriousness, Stanton (probably) won’t hit 75 home runs this year because hitting 75 home runs in one season is ridiculously hard. So hard no one has ever done it! It is entirely possible Stanton will never again do what he did last season. That might’ve been his career year. That isn’t to say Stanton will be bad going forward. I mean:

	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	WAR
2014-16 (150-game average)	.266/.361/.544	145	40	+5.3
2017	.281/.376/.631	156	59	+6.9
2018 ZiPS	.273/.366/.656	161	55	+6.5

LOL at that ZiPS projection. Like the nerd I am, I’ve been looking at ZiPS projections as long as I can remember, and I don’t ever remember a 50-homer projection. I guess if anyone was ever going to get a 50-homer projection, it’s Stanton. Anyway, the point is Stanton is still ridiculously great even if 2017 was a career year, and he reverts back to 2014-16 form.

What are the reasons to believe Stanton will repeat his 2017 performance in 2018, if not improve on it? The ballpark, for starters. Marlins Park is a pitcher’s park, even with the walls coming in a few years ago, and Yankee Stadium is decidedly not a pitcher’s park. The wall is 26 feet — 26 feet! — closer in left field at Yankee Stadium than it is as Marlins Park. All those line drives that hook juuust foul down the line in Miami might stay inside the pole in the Bronx.

Stanton has the power to hit the ball out of any part of any park. His average home run distance was 417 feet last year, sixth highest among the 229 hitters with at least ten homers. When Giancarlo really connects, no ballpark can contain him. The difference between Marlins Park and Yankee Stadium will be the balls he doesn’t square up that leave the park anyway. Remember this double the other day?

Look at that. He took a little half-swing and the ball banged off the wall. Stanton is so strong — and the ballpark is so small — that’s he’s going to throw his bat at the ball like that a few times this year, and it’ll carry over the wall. It’s inevitable. That’s where Yankee Stadium will benefit Stanton the most. The cheap little homers that are doubles (or outs!) elsewhere. The ballpark won’t make a difference when Stanton squares up a pitch. It’s going out anywhere. The ballpark will make a difference when he doesn’t fully connect.

Another reason to believe Stanton can repeat (or improve upon) last season’s performance? Playing for a contender. Stanton has never experienced a postseason race with the Marlins. Their best record during his seven full seasons was 79-82 in 2016. The most meaningful games Stanton has played in his career have been with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic. For real. Playing for a contender has a way of motivating players, and if you’ve listened to Stanton speak at all not only this spring, but over the last few years, you know the man just wants to win.

Also, as far as repeating last season, we shouldn’t discount Stanton’s age. He just turned 28. He’s right smack in the middle of what figure to be the most productive seasons of his career. This isn’t, say, a 32-year-old player having a career year. That isn’t to say a 28-year-old can’t decline or a 32-year-old can’t suddenly find a new level of success. But, generally speaking, the 28-year-old has a much better chance of maintaining their current performance level in the coming years.

What about reasons Stanton won’t repeat last season? I mean, doing what he did last season is incredibly hard, and if Stanton goes out this summer and puts up a 140 wRC+ with 47 homers, it would be a step down from last season and also be totally amazing. As I mentioned before, Giancarlo averaged a 145 wRC+ with 40 homers and +5.3 WAR per 150 games from 2014-16. I’d be totally cool with that this year and going forward.

Beyond the whole “hitting 59 homers is hard” thing, Stanton will have to adjust to all the things that come with joining a new team. New teammates, new coaches, new ballpark, new city, new commute, new division, new division rivals, the whole nine. That can be a lot to handle. Both Paul O’Neill and Reggie Jackson have said in recent weeks the biggest adjustment for Stanton will be the expectations. I mean, duh. Playing in New York and playing in Miami are very different.

Stanton has the largest contract in the sport’s history and every at-bat received national coverage the final six weeks last season as he chased 60 home runs, and he damn near got to 60 home runs. I don’t think the attention will bother him. Yeah, there will be more media in the clubhouse and every 0-for-4 will be followed by more questions, but whatever. Stanton is great and he knows he’s great. I’d be surprised if the extra attention bothered him, but it’s possible it will.

And, frankly, when the best possible explanation you can come up for why a guy might not repeat a huge season is “there are lots of expectations here,” you’re in good shape. Stanton hit 59 homers last season because he has been the game’s best power hitter for years now. He didn’t run a ridiculously high BABIP — his .277 BABIP last year was well below his career .317 mark — or anything like that. Want a reason to believe Stanton can do it again? Look:

2014: 161 wRC+
2012: 158 wRC+
2017: 156 wRC+
2015: 155 wRC+

Once you adjust for ballpark and the offensive environment around the league, last season was not out of the ordinary for Stanton at all. It was his third best season on a rate basis, once you adjust for the fact everyone was socking dingers last season. Stanton is a great hitter. Not a good hitter, a great hitter. He might not hit 59 home runs again because hitting 59 home runs is crazy hard. Otherwise there is every reason to believe he will continue to be one of the game’s most dominant offensive players this season.

Where’s he going to play?

This is a question the Yankees are in the process of answering. Stanton and Judge are both right fielders — they’re both good defensive right fielders — so someone will have to move. The DH spot helps out here, but there are days the Yankees will need/want both in the outfield, so someone has to move to left. Over the weekend, Stanton started in left field for the first time since he was in Double-A in 2010. And, well:

D’oh. Stanton had three balls hit to him in left field Sunday. One hit off his glove, one went over his head, and one dropped in in front of him for a single. The first two were clearly sun-aided. The third … I dunno. YES never gave us a good camera angle, so I don’t know if it was catchable. Point is, in his first game at a new position, Stanton looked bad, and that’s usually all it takes for people to latch onto a narrative the rest of the season. I can see it now. We’ll be sitting here on September 1st, Giancarlo will be +5 DRS in left field, and everyone will bring up the ball he dropped in Spring Training.

“I felt all right. I got some bad balls that didn’t help the team. I got to find a way to get behind them or something,” said Stanton to George King following Sunday’s game. “I felt good. The routes were good, the rest not as. Yeah, they were in the sun, but it doesn’t matter. That’s part of the game.”

Aaron Boone brushed off Stanton’s left field adventures — “Frankly, I saw nothing today that keeps me from feeling good out there going forward in the work that he has already done,” he said to King — and I’m not sure what else he could do. We’re talking about three fielding attempts on March 4th. Yeah, it didn’t go well, but the Yankees aren’t going to pull the plug based on that. Stanton will continue to work in left field — Judge will get his chance as well — and once he gets the lay of land, I expect him to be just fine.

More than anything, the question is how much left field will Stanton play? How much right field will he play? Stanton does have an injury history. Some of it is fluky, like being hit in the face by a fastball a few years ago. Some of it isn’t, like the nagging hamstring trouble he had in 2013. My guess — and this is only a guess — is Stanton will wind up splitting his time 50/50 between the outfield and DH. He’s a big man and getting him off his legs regularly could really help not just this year, but long-term.

It seems the Yankees are planning to give Brett Gardner more rest this season, which makes sense given his age and hard-nosed play, and that’ll open up left field playing time. If Stanton proves capable in left field, he could wind up playing left when Gardner sits, right when Judge sits, and DH when Gardner and Judge are in the outfield. It could be a three-man rotation between the two corner outfield spots and DH.

This is a “problem,” not a Problem. If Stanton can’t cut it in left, the Yankees will keep him in right. If Stanton and Judge can’t cut it in left, then they’ll share right field and DH. See? Nice and easy. I think Stanton (and Judge) will both be fine in left field when it’s all said and done. I know Stanton had the ugly game Sunday, but it was one game, who cares? Give him enough reps and Giancarlo will figure it out. The important thing is that he’s willing to do it and he’s working at it. He’s not begrudgingly changing positions. He’s buying in.

* * *

Long story short, Stanton is on the very short list of the best players in baseball and he is the game’s top power hitter. He is in the prime of his career, the Yankees didn’t give up a ton to get him, and his $22M luxury tax hit is a bargain when you consider guys like Chris Davis and Jason Heyward are each at $23M annually, and Bryce Harper is at $21.625M this season without even reaching free agency.

Yeah, the Yankees have to figure out how exactly the outfield/DH rotation will work, and yeah, Stanton is going to have to adjust to his new situation in New York. At the end of the day, the very good at baseball New York Yankees added the very good at baseball Giancarlo Stanton. Even if his performance slips back and he’s merely an All-Star rather than an MVP candidate, the Yankees are a heck of a lot more dangerous now.

The Kid Infielders [2018 Season Preview]

March 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Three years ago the Yankees started their homegrown youth movement with Greg Bird and Luis Severino. Two years ago it was Gary Sanchez. Last year it was Aaron Judge and Jordan Montgomery. This season, the Yankees are expected to extend the youth movement to the infield. The Starlin Castro and Chase Headley trades made it all but certain.

Brandon Drury was acquired two weeks ago as infield insurance, and veteran journeymen Danny Espinosa and Jace Peterson are in camp as non-roster players, but make no mistake, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are the future at second and third base, respectively. The future is not necessarily Opening Day, mind you. But it isn’t far away.

The Yankees are blessed with a bevy of young infielders that extends beyond Torres and Andujar. Heck, Drury is only 25 himself. It wouldn’t be wrong to consider him part of the youth movement. There’s also Tyler Wade, who figures to get an extended look this season in some capacity. Let’s preview the upcoming season for the kid infielders.

Miguel Andujar

The Drury trade seemed to confirm Andujar would start the 2018 season back in Triple-A, mostly to work on his defense. Barely two weeks later, Andujar is making the decision very tough for the Yankees. The just turned 23-year-old third baseman has gone 8-for-19 (.421) with four home runs in Grapefruit League. He’s putting a charge into the ball pretty much every at-bat.

“It’s not about sending a message,” said Andujar to Pete Caldera last week when asked whether he deserves the third base job given his spring performance to date. “It’s about doing your job and helping your team. That’s the way I see it … What I can control is my work, going out and giving the best I have.”

There is a lot of Spring Training remaining — “It’s March 1st,” said Aaron Boone last week after Andujar hit two homers against the Phillies — and who knows what’ll happen between now and Opening Day. Andujar could cool down and make it very easy for the Yankees to send him to Triple-A. And if they do, it’ll be because of his defense, not his bat. Andujar’s footwork needs to be refined and he has to be more consistent at the hot corner.

That said, the Yankees seem to more willing to roll with Andujar at the hot corner this year than they did last year, at least before the Drury trade. Andujar made his big league debut last season, though it was brief, and the Yankees opted to keep him in Triple-A to work on his defense in the second half rather than use him at DH. This year, I think they’d put him at third base on an everyday basis no questions asked, if necessary.

Andujar’s calling card is his innate ability to barrel up the baseball. He makes lots of contact, and when he makes contact, he tends to hit the ball hard. Last season 167 players batted at least 200 times in the Triple-A International League. Here are their swing-and-miss and isolated power rates:

The red dot is Andujar. The dot all the way at the top is Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins, who is almost two full years older than Andujar, was the only player in the International League last season to hit for more power while swinging and missing less often than Andujar. Andujar’s ability to make consistent hard contact is special. It really is.

That isn’t to say Andujar is without flaws. Beyond his defense, he’s also quite aggressive at the plate, and it’s fair to wonder whether big league pitchers will pick him apart Starlin Castro style. That is a question that can’t be answered until Andujar gets an opportunity, and I don’t mean 15-20 spring at-bats or 100 regular season at-bats. Andujar will need a chance to adjust to the league and adjust to the league adjusting to him, know what I mean?

As great as he’s been so far in camp, sending Andujar down to Triple-A come Opening Day wouldn’t be the end of the world. Disappointing? Sure. But he has only played 58 games at Triple-A, and if the Yankees want to give Drury a look to see whether his new fly ball approach yields results, Triple-A is the place for Andujar. There’s no sense in carrying him on the big league bench. It’s everyday third baseman in the Bronx or Scranton. No middle ground.

I think we’re going to see a lot of Andujar this season. I really do. I think he’s going to force the issue with his bat — even with only 58 games of Triple-A experience, I think Andujar is at the point where he has to face MLB pitching to get better — and Drury is versatile enough that he and Andujar can be in the lineup together. The Yankees reportedly made Andujar untouchable in trade talks over the winter for a reason. This kid has the goods.

“He is special from a bat speed standpoint, and he knows where his barrel is and walks up there with a lot of confidence. It’s good to see him continue to swing it,” said Boone to George King. “… I am happy for him that he just continues to gain that confidence and obviously is in a really good place now.”

Gleyber Torres

Andujar has the been the early star of the Grapefruit League. Torres, meanwhile, has looked very much like a kid coming off a major injury with only three month’s worth of playing time above Single-A in his career. Gleyber has gone 2-for-16 (.125) in his first seven spring games, and he’s also had some defensive issues at second base. He’s had some hard-hit grounders eat him up, and he’s gotten into trouble when he’s tried to be too flashy.

Torres turned only 21 in December and the Castro trade all but ensures second base will be his long-term position. Gleyber can play shortstop — he can play the hell out of shortstop — but Gregorius isn’t going anywhere, so second base is the next best spot. And that second base job is wide open. Andujar has to contend with Drury. Gleyber is competing against Wade, Espinosa, Peterson, and Ronald Torreyes. Not the biggest obstacles, you know?

Gleyber insists his focus is not on winning the second base job — “My focus right now is to play hard, stay focused, stay humble, and do my job. I don’t think about winning the job,” he said to King following the spring opener — but he’s only human. Of course it’s on his mind. How could it not be? Things haven’t gone well thus far in camp, but it’s only 16 at-bats, and the skills that make Torres one of the top prospects in baseball still exist.

Unfortunately for Torres, the Yankees could easily justifying sending him to Triple-A to start the season, even with a great Spring Training. Those reasons include:

He’s coming back from a major injury and hadn’t played since June.
Sixteen days in the minors pushes his free agency back one year.
He’s played only 194.1 career innings at second base, including Spring Training.
He’s played only 32 Double-A games and 23 Triple-A games.

The Yankees would never admit the whole service time thing, but it absolutely could factor into their decision to demote Torres. The injury, the lack of second base experience, and the lack of upper level experience provide plenty of cover for a Triple-A stint. And as much as I want to see Gleyber in the Opening Day lineup, I think a quick trip to Scranton to get up to speed following the injury would be a good idea.

Either way, Triple-A stint or no Triple-A stint, Torres is an extremely talented young man with a chance to be an impact player almost right away. He has the bat-to-ball skills, the ability to make quick adjustments, and strong defensive skills. MLB.com says Gleyber “has the tools to be a star wherever he winds up (defensively)” and I have no reason to disagree. Andujar may be more MLB ready, but Torres has the higher long-term upside.

The projection systems are all over the plate. PECOTA pegs Gleyber as replacement level in 2018 (+0.0 WARP in 279 PA) while ZiPS thinks he’ll be average-ish (+1.5 WAR in 426 PA). Since 2010, only five middle infielders have qualified for the batting title in their age-21 season. All were top prospects and three of the five handled themselves well:

Carlos Correa, 2016 Astros: +6.0 WAR
Addison Russell, 2015 Cubs: +3.3 WAR
Starlin Castro, 2011 Cubs: +3.0 WAR (+1.6 WAR at age 20 in 2010)
Elvis Andrus, 2010 Rangers: +1.1 WAR
Xander Bogaerts, 2014 Red Sox: +0.3 WAR

All top prospects — all tippy top prospects — like Torres. When guys this young and this talented get to the show, they tend to perform right away. Now, that said, none of them were coming off a major injury like Gleyber is right now. He’s healthy and that is the single most important thing. The elbow is good. The long layoff happened though, and based on his first few spring games, Torres needs some time to shake off the rust.

As with Andujar, I think Torres is going to spend most of this season in the big leagues. I think an Opening Day assignment to Triple-A is inevitable — I think the Yankees are going to use the injury as cover to delay his free agency no matter how well he hits in Spring Training — but I expect Gleyber to come up fairly soon, mostly because he doesn’t have someone like Drury standing in the way, and also because he’s incredibly talented and is likely the best second baseman in the organization right now.

Tyler Wade

Wade does not have the same prospect shine as Andujar and Torres. He’s not a super highly regarded prospect — technically he’s not a prospect at all, Wade lost his rookie eligibility through service time last year — and he’s appeared on just one top 100 prospects list in his career. Wade was No. 101 on Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 list last year. Barely made the one top 100 list (top 101 list, whatever) he did make.

But, Wade has some ability, and he is firmly in the mix for the second base job this spring. He’s had a nice Grapefruit League season so far, going 5-for-14 (.357), but who cares? It’s 14 at-bats. I guess it’s better than the alternative though. Wade’s not going to win a roster spot with a bad spring, I don’t think. He made some changes to his hitting mechanics and maybe they’ll pay dividends. Little too early to say right now.

Compared to Andujar and Torres, Wade has four things going for him at the moment:

He has the most big league experience.
He’s a left-handed hitter with very good speed.
He can play the three non-first base infield positions as well as the outfield.
He’s the best infield defender of the bunch.

The big league experience point is negligible, as far as I’m concerned. Wade was on the roster for 81 days last season and he received 63 plate appearances. That’s nothing. Being versatile, a left-handed hitter in a righty heavy lineup, having speed, and being a pretty darn good gloveman are not negligible, however. Wade can do a lot of things to help a team win. On Opening Day 2018, he might be able to do more to help the team win than Andujar and Gleyber!

More than a few Yankees fans seem to have soured on Wade after his rough debut last season — and I get it, the kid hit .155/.222/.224 (17 wRC+) and looked pretty overmatched — but the Yankees haven’t, and they’re the only ones that matter. Wade is in the running for an infield job in camp and the Yankees like him enough to play him in the outfield, because they want to find ways to get him in the lineup. At the same time, he wasn’t untouchable in trade talks over the winter.

Even if he doesn’t win an infield job come Opening Day, Wade is poised to spend a considerable amount of time on the big league roster this season, either as a starter or bench guy. He’s performed in Triple-A — Wade hit .310/.382/.460 (136 wRC+) in Scranton last year — and his speed and defense give him a chance to contribute in ways other than at the plate. I’m not sure I’d expect big things offensively this year, but I definitely expect Wade to hit more than last year, and everything else he brings to the table can make him sneaky valuable.