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2019 Preseason Not Top 30 Yankees Prospects

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Yajure. (@ChasRiverDogs)

Due to graduations and trades, the Yankees no longer boast one of the top farm systems in baseball. They have one of the top Major League rosters instead. I’d take that over a top farm system any day of the week. The Yankees currently have a pitching heavy system with quite a few high-end teenagers who are years away from the big leagues. That equals risk. It’s a boom-or-bust system, for sure.

Although the farm system no longer offers potential impact talent close to the big leagues, the Yankees do still have a fairly deep system, so much so that several quality prospects did not make my annual Top 30 Prospects List. That’ll be posted tomorrow. First we have to get to my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are players on the outside of this year’s top 30 who could jump into next year’s top 30.

One of last year’s not top 30 prospects made this year’s top 30. Two others were among the final cuts, and another was traded away, though he wouldn’t have made the top 30 anyway. I’ve done this long enough to know two not top 30 prospects becoming top 30 prospects is a good success rate. One? Eh, close enough. I’ll try better next year. Prospect ranking is little more than informed guesswork.

Just to be clear, these are not prospects 31-35. They are simply five prospects on the outside of this year’s top 30 list who I think could make next year’s top 30 with a good statistical season and positive development in 2019. Here are this year’s five not top 30 prospects, listed alphabetically.

2B Ezequiel Duran

Date of Birth: May 22nd, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($10,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+), 4 HR, 27.7 K%, 3.8 BB% (235 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

The Yankees landed Duran almost by accident. He was a projected mid-six-figure bonus prospect for the 2016-17 international signing period but neglected to register with MLB, so he was unable to sign. Duran became a forgotten man, so by time he actually registered to sign, he was already 18 and teams had earmarked most of their bonus pool money for other players. The Yankees swooped in with a $10,000 bonus and here we are.

Duran made a name for himself in the Dominican Summer League in 2017 and again in minor league Spring Training last year, though he fell flat with Rookie Pulaski last summer. Pitchers took advantage of his aggressiveness at the plate and gave him fits all season. Duran’s tools are unchanged, however. He has premium bat speed and puts up big exit velocities from the right side, and he doesn’t miss pitches out over the plate. For a little guy (5-foot-11 and 185 lbs.), there is a lot of thump in Duran’s bat, even if he didn’t show it last year.

The downside here is Duran’s thick lower half and defensive tools that point to a future in a corner outfield spot rather than second base. Also, there’s little room for projection. Even at 19, Duran is close to maxed out physically, so what you see is probably what you’ll get long-term. Can Duran clean up his plate discipline? If yes, he could force his way up the ladder. If not, more seasons like 2018 are coming.

OF Anthony Garcia

Date of Birth: September 5th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .218/.300/.456 (48 wRC+), 10 HR, 40.6 K%, 10.6 BB% (217 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Seven-figure signings like Antonio Cabello, Everson Pereira, Ronny Rojas, and Raimfer Salinas headline the Yankees’ 2017-18 international signing class. It is Garcia and several other smaller bonus prospects who could turn this into a banner haul. Garcia has drawn comparisons to Brewers-turned-Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana for his size (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and power, though Garcia has a long way to go to get to where Santana is now.

Garcia led the Gulf Coast League in home runs last year and he has near 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale from both sides of the plate, though he’s more refined as a left-handed hitter, which is good because that’s the heavy side of the platoon. That 40.6% strikeout rate stems from a tendency to swing-and-miss at pitches in the zone rather than a lack of discipline. Garcia knows a ball from a strike. He just misses those strikes too often.

In the field, Garcia runs quite well given his size and he has a good arm. Chances are he’ll slow down as he gets older and settle in as an average-ish defender. Garcia has exciting upside like Santana. The downside with Santana is that, when he isn’t hitting for power (like 2018), he’s kinda useless. Garcia is a switch-hitter and has a chance to be a better defender. Clearly though, the power is his calling card.

RHSP Yoendrys Gomez

Date of Birth: October 15th, 1999 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($50,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: 2.08 ERA (3.56 FIP), 25.8 K%, 11.3 BB% (47.2 IP in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

When the Yankees signed Gomez he was tall and scrawny with good athleticism and a quick arm. Everything pointed to him adding velocity and firming up his stuff as matured and that is exactly what happened. Gomez, who is now listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 lbs., sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball, and pairs it with a snappy upper-70s curveball that misses bats. His changeup shows promise as well.

The physical tools are good, but what really makes Gomez stand out is his creativity and craftiness. He knows how to make his fastball cut and sink, and he likes to steal strikes in hitter’s counts with a curveball in the zone. Gomez is a smart pitcher who maybe gets a little too cute at times, though that’s something he’ll grow out of in time. The biggest knock against him is his shaky command, mostly with his secondary stuff. The Yankees have a knack for digging up quality small bonus pitching prospects on the international market and Gomez is next in line.

SS Oswald Peraza

Date of Birth: June 15th, 2000 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed July 2016 out of Venezuela ($175,000 bonus)
2018 Stats: .250/.333/.321 (81 wRC+), 1 HR, 25.8 K%, 8.8 BB% (159 PA in Rk)
Projected 2019 Level: Extended Spring Training and Short Season

Peraza is a tools guy who is still working to turn those tools into baseball skills. He’s listed at 6-foot-0 and 176 lbs., and he currently does his best work in the field, where he is a no-doubt long-term shortstop. Peraza has good range, good hands, and good athleticism, and his feel for the position is very advanced. He positions himself well, makes good decisions, and has a good internal clock.

Offensively, Peraza has little power and he’s still learning to recognize spin and control the strike zone. He’s a righty hitter with good bat-to-ball skills, and he adds value on the bases through his speed and baserunning instincts. The Yankees have had some success with this profile. Guys like Abi Avelino and Thairo Estrada have similar skill sets and became MLB options (and a trade chip, in Avelino’s case). Peraza is still very young and I’m probably Not Top 30-ing him a year early, but I’ll take my chances.

RHSP Miguel Yajure

Date of Birth: May 1st, 1998 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed March 2015 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
2018 Stats: 3.90 ERA (3.04 FIP), 20.7 K%, 5.6 BB% (64.2 IP in A-)
Projected 2019 Level: Low-A and High-A

Yajure had a promising but short-lived stint in the Rookie Gulf Coast League in 2016. He threw 31.1 innings, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. Yajure returned last year with a fastball that jumped from the low-90s into the mid-90s, and when that happens, it’s usually because the Tommy John surgery rehab is more intense than anything the player did previously, not because the new ligament gave him superpowers.

A quality curveball and a quality changeup complement Yajure’s new and improved fastball, and even though pitchers tend to struggle with their control when they first return from elbow reconstruction, Yajure did not. He locates everything well, especially his secondary pitches for his age. He’s not especially big (6-foot-1 and 175 lbs.) and once the elbow gives out once, long-term durability questions will inevitably follow. Such is the life of the pitching prospect.

While Yajure’s stuff is quite good, his career strikeout rate (18.0%) and last year’s swing-and-miss rate (11.1%) do not stand out. He hasn’t missed as many bats as the raw stuff would lead you to believe. That said, he’s 20 years old and he’s thrown 64.2 innings with his new elbow ligament. Let’s see what happens when he gets further away some surgery. Yajure figures to return to Low-A Charleston for a few weeks this year before moving up to High-A Tampa.

Saturday Links: Otani, League Top 20 Prospects, Cessa

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The most fun player on Earth. (Getty)
The most fun player on Earth. (Getty)

The offseason is off to a pretty good start. Last night we learned Masahiro Tanaka will not opt-out of his contract, and instead give the Yankees his age 29-31 seasons for $67M. Not bad. Not bad at all. Now the Yankees can now move on to other things, like finding a new manager. Here are some notes and links to check out.

Otani’s move on hold while MLB, MLBPA, NPB haggle

According to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, Shohei Otani’s move to the big leagues is on hold while MLB, MLBPA, and NPB haggle over the posting agreement. The posting agreement expired last month, though MLB and NPB agreed Otani would be grandfathered in under the old agreement, meaning the Nippon Ham Fighters would still get the $20M release fee. The players’ union doesn’t like that arrangement. From Sherman:

But MLB cannot enter into any transfer agreement with any country — Japan, Korea, Cuba, Mexico, etc. — without approval from the MLB Players Association, as stated in the CBA. And the union, to date, has refused to make an exception for Otani, concerned about the precedent and fairness of the player receiving, say, $300,000 and his former team $20 million.

Under the international hard cap Otani can only receive a small bonus — the Yankees and Rangers reportedly have the most bonus money to offer at $2.5M or so — and sign a minor league contract, which is nothing. He’s getting screwed beyond belief, financially. I get why MLBPA doesn’t want to set this precedent, but maybe do something about it during Collective Bargaining Agreement talks? It’s a little too late now. You agreed to the hard cap, you dolts.

Anyway, my guess is Otani will indeed end up coming over at some point this winter. It seems like he really wants to despite the hard cap. So far this Otani stuff is following a similar path as the Tanaka stuff a few years ago. He wants to come over, oh no his team might not post him, now MLB and the NPB are at an impasse during posting system talks … blah blah blah. Same story, different year.

Otani undergoes ankle surgery

Oh, by the way, Otani had ankle surgery last month, according to the Kyodo News. The ankle had been bothering him since late last year, when he rolled it running through first base in October. He then reaggravated it in November. The ankle injury as well as a nagging quad problem limited Otani to only 231 plate appearances (.332/.403/.540) and 25.1 innings (3.20 ERA and 10.3 K/9) in 2017.

The surgery comes with a three-month rehab, meaning Otani is expected to be back on his feet by January. That could throw a wrench into his offseason workout routine. Obviously the surgery is a red flag and something MLB teams must consider when pursuing him, but given the nature of the injury — rolling your ankle while running through first base is kinda fluky — and the fact his arm is sound leads me to believe it won’t hurt his market at all. It could mean Otani is brought along a little more slowly in Spring Training, however.

More Yankees among BA’s league top 20 prospects

Florial. (Rob Carr/Getty)
Florial. (Rob Carr/Getty)

It just dawned on me that I never passed along Baseball America’s remaining league top 20 prospect lists. I did post Triple-A, Double-A, and High-A, but that’s all. There are still four more levels to cover, and many Yankees prospects. Let’s get to them quick:

  • OF Estevan Florial (Low-A No. 2): “He’s a higher-risk, high ceiling prospect who has further refinement to come, but special tools.”
  • RHP Jorge Guzman (NYPL No. 2): “(The) 21-year-old took a big step forward as a pitcher this year … He mixed in his curveball and changeup more regularly, which only made his plus-plus fastball more effective.”
  • RHP Trevor Stephan (NYPL No. 9): “Stephan sat 92-94 mph but touched 95-96 regularly. His slider got plenty of swings and misses thanks to his ability to bury it.”
  • RHP Juan De Paula (NYPL No. 14): “De Paula was one of the more skilled pitchers in the league, showing an ability to control the strike zone and throw in and out, up and down, raising and lowering hitters’ eye levels and never letting them get real comfortable in the batter’s box.”
  • IF Oswaldo Cabrera (NYPL No. 16): “Managers and scouts felt confident about Cabrera’s ability to hit for average and get on base … Scouts are concerned that Cabrera’s tools are more modest than his work ethic and feel for the game.”
  • RHP Luis Medina (Appy No. 6): “Medina’s upside is enormous. He attacks hitters with a true 80-grade fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale and sits anywhere from 96-100 mph … Medina pairs his heater with two potentially above-average secondaries. His curveball works in an 11-to-5 arc and is his preferred knockout pitch, whereas his changeup lags a little behind.”
  • RHP Deivi Garcia (Appy No. 15): “Garcia’s fastball sits in the low 90s and touches as high as 96 mph … His curveball is nearing plus status and boasts high spin rates and firm shape.”
  • SS Oswald Peraza (GCL No. 14): “Peraza is a smart, savvy player and a good athlete. He has a smooth, efficient stroke, good bat-to-ball skills and manages his at-bats well with a good sense for the strike zone.”
  • SS Jose Devers (GCL No. 19): “Devers’ glove is ahead of his bat, but he held his own against older competition in the GCL, showing a sound swing and contact skills, though without much power.”

In the Appalachian League chat, 3B Dermis Garcia was called “a very divisive player” because his pitch recognition isn’t great and he’ll probably end up at first base, but “(on) the flip side, he’s got enormous raw power and a strong throwing arm.” Also, OF Blake Rutherford placed 18th on the Low-A South Atlantic League list. Eek. Hopefully he bounces back next year. Rutherford’s a good dude.

Cessa activated off 60-day DL

A small transaction to note: Luis Cessa was activated off the 60-day DL yesterday, the Yankees announced. The Yankees now have four open spots on the 40-man roster. They’re going to go to Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects later this month. Chances are the Yankees will have to open a few more 40-man spots, in fact. Cessa, 25, had a 4.75 ERA (5.75 FIP) in 36 swingman innings this year before going down with a rib cage injury. I like him more than most. I think Cessa has a chance to be a nice little back-end starter and soon.

International Signing News: Contreras, Torres, Torrealba

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The Yankees' academy in the Dominican Republic. (Groundskeeper.MLBlogs.com)
The Yankees’ academy in the Dominican Republic. (Groundskeeper.MLBlogs.com)

As always, the 2016-17 international signing period opened on July 2nd this year, and pretty much all of the top prospects wound up signing with the Padres. San Diego went on a massive Yankees-esque spending spree that has seen them pay out more than $27M in bonuses already. They’ll have to pay a near equal amount in tax too.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are still dealing with the penalties stemming from that 2014-15 spending spree. They’re unable to sign anyone to a bonus larger than $300,000 this signing period. That’s okay. The Yankees brought in a ton of talent back in 2014, and they’re pretty good at finding talent on the cheap. Both Jorge Mateo ($225,000) and Luis Severino ($250,000) signed for relative peanuts back in the day.

This signing period the Yankees had a $2,177,100 bonus pool to play with internationally. Also, any bonuses of $10,000 or less do not count against the pool. Teams can hand out as many of those as they want. Here is a recap of the Yankees’ international signings since the current signing period opened on July 2nd.

The Top Prospect: Roancy Contreras

The best prospect the Yankees picked up this signing period is Dominican RHP Roancy Contreras. We heard a deal was likely weeks ago. Ben Badler reported the signing and I haven’t seen his bonus anywhere, but I think it’s safe to assume he received the $300,000 maximum. Baseball America ranked Contreras the third best pitcher and the 25th best prospect overall this signing period. He was the top Dominican pitcher available.

Contreras, 16, is listed at 6-foot-0 and 175 lbs., so he’s not the biggest guy at this point in time. Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) says he has an upper-80s/low-90s heater and an above-average bat-missing curveball. He’s even shown a changeup already, which is rare for a 16-year-old. Contreras is said to have a sound delivery and good athleticism. It seems like the Yankees found him early, locked him into an agreement, then his stock improved.

The Other Top Prospect: Saul Torres

The second best prospect the Yankee signed this month is 16-year-old Dominican C Saul Torres. He received a $300,000 bonus, reports Baseball America. Balder’s scouting report (subs. req’d) says Torres has promising power potential and “an above-average arm with the blocking and receiving skills to stick behind the plate.” The Yankees generally do very well scouting and developing catchers, so even though Torres was not one of the top 50 international prospects according to Baseball America, I’m guessing the kid has some skills. The team’s track record behind the plate speaks for itself.

Taken from the Red Sox: Eduardo Torrealba

As you may have heard, MLB hit the Red Sox hard after it was discovered they circumvented their bonus pool last year with some shady dealings. The short version: the BoSox were held to the same $300,000 bonus limit as the Yankees, so they’d sign two players for $300,000 each, but actually pay one $10,000 and the other $590,000 (I don’t know the exact amounts, but that’s the idea). The guy getting the small bonus probably wasn’t going to get signed otherwise, so he made some extra cash for playing along. That allowed the Red Sox to game the system and sign some top prospects.

MLB found out about this and punished the Red Sox. They are not allowed to sign any players during the 2016-17 signing period, and all the players who were part of their scam last season had their contracts voided and became free agents. One of those prospects, 17-year-old Venezuelan SS Eduardo Torrealba, later signed with the Yankees for $300,000, reports Jesse Sanchez. (Torrealba got to keep his Red Sox bonus money too. Good for him.)

Now Torrealba is not some kind of elite prospect or anything like that. In fact, he was hitting only .247/.318/.247 (71 wRC+) with four strikeouts and ten walks in 22 Dominican Summer League games when his contract was voided. Badler’s scouting report from last year says Torrealba is a “smart, instinctive player with feel for hitting from the right side of the plate and the ability to use the whole field.” Badler notes he may wind up at second base long-term.

Small or Unknown Bonuses

Here is basically everyone else. The guys the Yankees signed to relatively small or unreported bonuses. Good luck finding information on these guys. We usually have to wait until they break through as actual prospects and come to the U.S. before we learn anything about them.

Assuming Contreras received the maximum $300,000 bonus, the Yankees have $1.355M in pool space tied up in the players listed above. There’s seven bonuses unaccounted for though. Last year the Yankees signed 57 (!) players even with the bonus limit, so chances are they’ve signed a bunch of other players and will sign more before the 2016-17 signing period ends next June.