2018 Midseason Review Archives - River Avenue Blues

2018 Midseason Review: The New Manager

July 19, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Ninety-five games into the 2018 season, the Yankees are on pace for 106 wins and every other day it seems like they do something that hasn’t been done since the 1998 Yankees. That includes a 17-1 stretch earlier this year, with eight of those wins coming against the Astros, Indians, and Red Sox. Some quick numbers on the 2018 Yankees:

Run Differential: +131 (third best)
Runs Scored per Game: 5.19 (second best)
Runs Allowed per Game: 3.81 (third fewest)
wRC+: 115 (tied for best)
ERA+: 124 (second best)

A powerhouse team, through and through. At the All-Star break it is clear the Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox are the three best teams in baseball. Order them however you want. Those three stand out from the other 27 clubs. The 2018 Yankees: They’re good, folks. Really good. Great, in fact.

The 2018 Yankees have a rookie manager in Aaron Boone, who came into the season about as inexperienced as possible. Yeah, he played for a while and comes from a baseball family, though he’d never coached or managed at any level. Boone went from player to broadcaster to 2018 Yankees manager. It was a risky decision for a team with World Series aspirations.

Evaluating a manager is so incredibly difficult — remember the days when we used to look at the difference between actual record and expected record based on run differential, and pin that on the manager? — because the most important part of their job happens behind the scenes, either in the clubhouse or on the team plane or at home. It’s not just an X’s and O’s gig.

Because of that, I’m not going to bother to slap a grade on Boone as part of our midseason review like we have with the players. Instead, I’m just to pass along some thoughts and observations about the new skipper as the Yankees prepare to head into the second half.

1. Last week was a bad week. Might as well start here. Last week was Boone’s worst week as a manager in terms of on-field decisions. He got burned trying to steal outs against the Orioles with CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, who were clearly running on fumes and were left in long enough to give up big home runs. Ditto Chad Green, who was also left in too long against the O’s and Indians and got burned because of it.

There was also the decision to save pinch-hitter Brett Gardner for two outs in the ninth rather than use him to hit for Kyle Higashioka, who was allowed to face Zach Britton with a runner on third and one out with the Yankees down a run. (He struck out.) There’s also the whole “not giving runners the red light when Giancarlo Stanton is at the plate in a close game” thing that has burned the Yankees several times. Just let the man hit with men on base!

Last week was Boone’s worst week in terms of obvious managerial decisions (leaving a pitcher in too long, etc.) that didn’t work out. There have been other instances like that this year where the decision did work out — I remember Sabathia being left in to get the final few outs against the Braves a few weeks ago when he was on the ropes, but he got the outs — so we all kinda forgot about them. Last week, they came back to bite the Yankees.

2. There hasn’t been a radical shift in on-field strategy. If you didn’t know any better, it would be hard to look at the on-field decisions and tell whether Boone or Joe Girardi was the manager. Like Girardi, Boone has a set seventh (Green) and eighth (Dellin Betances) inning guy in the bullpen. He doesn’t like lefties (or righties) hitting back-to-back in the lineup. He’s not a fan of bunting and, despite statements to the contrary in Spring Training, he’s not opposed to letting a pitcher (Sonny Gray) have a personal catcher (Austin Romine).

The on-field decisions are generally similar and it’s either because a baseball manager can only do so much to impact a game, or because so many shots are called from the front office. Or both. The Yankees are a very analytical organization and I’m not sure whether directives have been handed down, though I do know information is provided for Boone and the coaching staff. Perhaps that information has led to Boone making similar decisions as Girardi. Point is, there doesn’t seem to be a big difference between the two in terms of their on-field strategy.

3. There have been no egregious rookie mistakes. Every manager, no matter how experienced, will make a pitching change that doesn’t work out or a lineup decision that doesn’t make sense. That’s baseball. The egregious rookie mistakes I’m talking about are Managing 101 stuff. Consider some of the other rookie managers:

Mickey Callaway, Mets: Gave the umps the wrong lineup card and batted out of order.
Gabe Kapler, Phillies: Forgot to warm up a reliever before taking out his starter.
Dave Martinez, Nationals: Changed pitchers before the pinch-hitter was announced and lost the platoon advantage.

That’s really bad! Managing 101 stuff, like I said. It’s a low bar, I know, but Boone hasn’t done anything like that so far. Callaway in particular seems in over his head — last week he changed his pitcher before the pinch-hitter was announced a la Martinez — and we haven’t seen anything like that with Boone yet. Bad pitching or lineup decisions are whatever. Everyone does that. The basic stuff? No issues there.

4. He’s great with the media. And that’s not nothing. Boone is a natural with the media — surely his time as a broadcaster helps with this — and he’s quite good at diffusing potential controversies. Remember when Aaron Judge got thrown out trying to steal with Stanton at the plate against the Indians last week? After the game Boone said he second guessed himself, he screwed up, and that was it. End of the story.

Girardi could be a little stubborn with the media and it created some unnecessary headaches. Remember the non-challenge in the ALDS? After the game Girardi wouldn’t admit the mistake and his excuse was he didn’t want to throw off his pitcher’s rhythm with a challenge. Only digging a deeper hole with an excuse like that. Boone is much more personable and much more adept at diffusing any problems with the media. It’s a very Joe Torre-esque quality.

5. So what happens when the intensity increases? Let’s be real here, the players have made Boone’s job incredibly easy so far this season. The Yankees have not experienced anything close to a crisis. Their worst stretches this year are .500 ball. They haven’t had that ugly 3-9 stretch where the sky starts falling, you know? The players have made the first 95 games of Boone’s managerial career very easy.

Going forward though, the games will become more important and more intense as the postseason race heats up, and we don’t know how Boone will react in that environment. He seems to be the exact opposite of Girardi. Girardi was very intense and high strung, and hey, that can work. It did work for a long time. Boone is pretty much the opposite. He’s very even-keeled and relaxed, and I think that is reflected in the team. The Yankees seem much more loose this year than they have the last few years. The manager sets the tone.

Will that change as we get deeper into the postseason race? Who knows. Boone’s never managed and we’re not going to know how he handles those pressure situations until the team actually plays in those situations. Hasn’t happened yet. I think Boone will be fine. His big thing is staying in command and controlling emotions. I’d be surprised if, coming September when a postseason spot is on the line, we see Boone with that strained look on his face like Girardi.

* * *

The Yankees are so good and so talented that Boone’s single biggest job is don’t screw it up. Give your best hitters the most at-bats, use Green and Betances and Aroldis Chapman in the late innings of close games, and things’ll be fine. Keep everyone happy and make sure there isn’t a mutiny in the clubhouse. That is the Boone’s single most important responsibility, and he’s done that. So far, so good, though a postseason race remains uncharted territory for the new manager.

2018 Midseason Review: The Depth Players

July 19, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Austin and Drury: Scranton Bash Brothers (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

A team is only as good as its weakest link, so the saying goes. The Yankees have had a series of bench players, mop-up relievers and forgettable characters so far this year. Why not grade them?

Ronald Torreyes

The skinny: Torreyes got the chance to start plenty of games at second base until Gleyber Torres was called up and Toe did nothing but rake in that interim. It was mostly singles, but he finished April with a .390/.405/.488 line. He has been sent down and called up twice with the Yankees not having room on their infield for even semi-regular time. Gotta love Toe.

Best game/highlight: He’s had a trio of three-hit games this season, but one of his one-hit games stands out. On Apr. 19, he knocked in a run early before walking and scoring the go-ahead run in a 4-3 win vs. Toronto.

Midseason Grade: A

Brandon Drury

The skinny: The Yankees acquired Drury with the idea he’d be their starting third baseman, but vision problems and the emergence of Miguel Andujar have kept him away from the big league club. He has just eight hits as a Yankee thus far, though he excelled in Scranton. Hopefully, he’ll receive a larger chance now that his vision is better and he can make an impact in the second half.

Best game/highlight: In the second game of the year, he drove in two runs while going 2-for-3 with a walk. His double in the second inning came mere inches away from going out of the park.

Midseason Grade: C/Incomplete

Tyler Wade

The skinny: Wade’s first stint with the Yanks in 2018 was seriously disappointing. Though he provided the Yankees with stable defense at second, he simply didn’t hit. He had a real chance to win playing time at second base to start the year and blew it. His second opportunity in replacing Gleyber has been much better with six hits in his last 13 ABs with some good defense as well. He’s going to play a role down the stretch, even if it’s just as a pinch runner.

Best game/highlight: Last week, Wade came a triple short of the cycle, knocking his first career home run to right field at Camden Yards. It’s surprising a player that fast doesn’t have a triple in his career yet.

Midseason Grade: D

Clint Frazier

The skinny: Frazier is a victim of the Yankees having one of the best outfield rotations in baseball. He’d be starting in a corner for most other teams. When he’s been with the big league club, he’s shown strong patience and sports a .390 OBP. He was robbed of a game-winning home run by the monstrosity that is Tropicana Field. He’ll get an opportunity soon if he’s not traded for a top-line starting pitcher.

Best game/highlight: His first game of the year came on May 19 in Kansas City and he lined a double, drew two walks and scored a run. Always nice to see him show off both a strong approach and his Legendary Bat Speed.

Midseason Grade: B+

Tyler Austin

The skinny: Austin was the fill-in first baseman for Greg Bird for the first month and a half and was perfectly adequate. He hit eight home runs and put up a .471 slugging percentage. However, he didn’t get on base often enough and was prone to prolonged slumps. The 26-year-old remains a solid contingency plan waiting in Triple-A, though you’d rather see Bird out there for sure.

Best game/highlight: He has two two-homer games this year and the second one was an impressive day in Kansas City. He drilled a pair of two-run shots to knock starter Eric Skoglund out of the game and begin a blowout win.

Midseason Grade: B-

Billy McKinney

The skinny: Two games. Four at-bats. One hit. One injury. That’s a basic summary of McKinney’s big-league career thus far. He was called up for Game No. 2 after Aaron Hicks went down with an injury and was sidelined himself in his second start by banging into the left field wall at Rogers Centre. Not ideal. He’s been good once again in Scranton.

Best game/highlight: Obviously, it’s his one full game where he recorded his first career hit. March 30 in Toronto, a win to boot.

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

Luis Cessa

The skinny: Anyone else forget Luis Cessa was in a mop-up role in mid-April? He apparently threw four innings that month before suffering an oblique strain. He came back up in June, threw two innings of relief and then had a forgettable spot start in Philly. He then started in Baltimore during last Monday’s doubleheader with further detail below.

Best game/highlight: July 9 in Baltimore wasn’t a pretty day for the Yankees, but Cessa helped them salvage a win against the last-place O’s with six shutout innings. He put on six baserunners but pitched well and had two double plays turned behind him. Not bad!

Midseason Grade: B

David Hale

The skinny: Hale was up and down as a mop up reliever, taking almost exclusively the lowest leverage innings and saving the rest of the bullpen, all before receiving an unceremonious DFA. He threw exclusively multi-inning outings and also had one game with the Twins. While his last outing was impressive, he won’t be making another with the Yankees this season as he has signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO.

Best game/highlight: He saved the best for last in relief of Sonny Gray. He threw 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Blue Jays in a 6-2 loss. While he gave the team a chance to win, it was more important that he simply absorbed innings.

Midseason Grade: A

Gio Gallegos

The skinny: Like Hale, Gallegos has come up to take on mop up innings. In four multi-inning outings, he hasn’t come in with a leverage index higher than .30. It’ll be tough for him to earn any sort of permanent role with the Yankees this season, so it’s the up-and-down role the rest of the way. He’s one of three Yankees with a save as he threw three innings to close Cessa’s win in the doubleheader.

Best game/highlight: In Cessa’s other start vs. the Phillies, Gallegos came in out of the bullpen and dazzled hitters with his stuff. Three innings, two hits, no runs and six strikeouts. Six! It was his best outing as a Yankee. Two of the Ks were the opposing pitcher, but he also punched out Cesar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins.

Midseason Grade: B

Jace Peterson

The skinny: McKinney, Hicks and Jacoby Ellsbury all were on the disabled list in early April, thus giving Peterson a shot. He got a chance to play three games (two starts) in the outfield, going 3-for-10 with a walk over 10 days. He joined Baltimore afterwards and, funny enough, has played as many games against the Yankees as he has for the Bombers.

Best game/highlight: He manned left field in his first Yankee start on Apr. 7 and saved the game with a nice catch to rob Pedro Alvarez of two go-ahead RBI in a game the Yankees would go on to win.

Midseason Grade: B+

Shane Robinson

The skinny: With the Yankees still short on outfielders and facing lefties in Boston, Robinson got the call-up in place of Peterson. He went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base in his two games in pinstripes.

Best game/highlight: He pinch ran for Tyler Austin and stole second base on Apr. 11 in Boston. I guess that counts as a highlight?

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

2018 Midseason Review: The Bullpen

July 18, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

As expected, the bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees so far this season. The relief crew actually got off to a bit of a rocky start the first week or two, though things have settled down nicely since, and Aaron Boone now has arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the game at his disposal.

Here are the team’s bullpen ranks 95 games into the season:

ERA: 2.69 (first)
FIP: 3.01 (second)
WHIP: 1.08 (second)
Strikeout Rate: 31.6% (first)
Shutdowns: 102 (fifth)
Meltdowns: 37 (first)
WAR: +6.6 (first)

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a neat win probability stat. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team’s win probability least 6%. Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6%. Long story short, the Yankees have had an excellent bullpen this year, and that was the expectation coming into the season. Time to grade the relievers.

Dellin Betances

Midseason Grade: A

Expectations for Betances were pretty low coming into the season. He collapsed down the stretch last year and his control disappeared — Dellin walked eleven batters in his final 12.2 regular season innings — so much so that he was basically persona non grata in the postseason. Use only in an emergency. The Yankees stuck with Betances over the winter when much of the fan base was ready to dump him.

And, coming out of the gate this year, it seemed Betances was still broken. He allowed a homer in his first appearance of the season and Kevin Pillar embarrassed him by stealing his way around the bases in his second appearance. Six appearances into the season, Betances had allowed six runs on ten hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He allowed three homers in his first 6.2 innings this year after allowing three homers in 59.2 innings last year.

Something funny happened after that: All-Star Dellin Betances returned. The Yankees and Boone said they were going to stick with Betances and get him right, and they did. Since April 14th, Betances has pitched to a 1.56 ERA (1.70 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (44.1%), lots of grounders (48.2%), and a tolerable amount of walks (11.8%) in 34.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .121/.244/.164 against him in those 34.2 innings. The knee-bucklers are back. The swag is back.

With Betances, given his history, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will this be the outing when he hits a batter and walks three? I get it, and it’s not an unreasonable feeling after last season. For now though, Betances has reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and gone back to being a monster strikeout machine. He could’ve gone to his fifth straight All-Star Game this year but did not. That doesn’t diminish his season performance at all.

Aroldis Chapman

Midseason Grade: A

The first year of Chapman’s reliever record five-year, $86M contract did not go according to plan. He got hurt early in the season and lost his closer’s job at midseason before finding it late and dominating in the postseason. This year, Chapman has come right out of the gate looking like the historically great late-inning reliever he’s been basically his entire career.

Through 95 team games Chapman has a 1.35 ERA (1.49 FIP) with his typically excellent strikeout rate (44.2%) and a strong ground ball rate (46.3%). His 10.4% walk rate is a tick below his 11.3% career average. Chapman is 26-for-27 in save chances and, in the one blown save, he didn’t even get hit around. A single, a hit-by-pitch, and two wild pitches pushed a run across. And the Yankees won that game anyway, so who cares?

We are more than halfway through the season now, so we can say for sure Chapman’s trademark velocity is down a tick. He’s averaging a still otherworldly 99.7 mph with his fastball. That’s down from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. You have to go back to 2013 for the last time Chapman’s average fastball velocity was this low. We still see a few 103s and 104s, though not nearly as frequently as in the past.

Chapman is 30 years old now and he has been pitching basically his entire life, so a little velocity loss is no surprise. It is completely natural. He’s compensated for that velocity loss — again, the dude is still averaging 99.7 mph with his heater, so it’s not like he’s out there slinging mid-80s gas — with more sinkers and more sliders, especially with two strikes. It has worked wonderfully too.

Amazingly, Chapman has pitched this well despite ongoing tendinitis in his left (push-off) knee. He’s been dealing with it for weeks and he’s admitted he’ll probably have to deal with it all season. Chapman is getting regular treatment and it hasn’t stopped him from taking the mound — the knee did force him to leave a game earlier this month, though that had more to do with not wanting to push it with a four-run lead than “I can’t pitch it hurts too much” — so that’s good.

I’m not a big fan of players — especially very important players — playing through an injury, but what I think doesn’t matter, so Chapman will continue to pitch through the knee trouble. The doctors know better than me anyway. Even with the knee trouble, Chapman is having a truly outstanding season, a season that deservedly sent him to the All-Star Game. He’s been a rock in the ninth inning. Hand him a lead and the game is over.

A.J. Cole

Midseason Grade: A+

Cole is that kid whose family moved in the middle of the school year and the teachers at his new school grade him on a curve. The Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals in a cash trade on April 24th because they needed a long man, and, as a 26-year-old former top 100 prospect, he offered some upside. Cole was terrible with Washington — he allowed 15 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.1 innings before the trade — but he was a low risk pickup. At worst, he’d soak up some innings in a blowout, then be cast aside for the next guy.

Instead, Cole has become the best long man the Yankees have had in quite some time. Probably since 2013 Adam Warren. He’s allowed one run in 18.2 innings around a minor neck injury, striking out 24 and holding opponents to a .172/.243/.234 batting line against. The Yankees, as they are wont to do, have Cole throwing far more sliders than ever before.

The Yankees have such a good bullpen that they haven’t needed Cole to pitch in high (or even medium) leverage situations. His average leverage index when entering the game is 0.53. That’s nothing. That is 33rd lowest among the 324 relievers with at least ten innings pitched this season. Perhaps there will come a time when Cole can audition for high leverage work. Right now, the Yankees don’t need him in that role. He can be a highly effective long man and there’s nothing wrong with that at all.

Chad Green

Midseason Grade: B

Two things are true this season. One, Green has been very good overall. Two, Green has not been as good as last season. Two blowups in two appearances prior to the All-Star break left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, though, prior to those last two appearances, Green had a 1.91 ERA (2.39 FIP) in 42.1 innings. He was fantastic and he probably deserved to go to the All-Star Game.

Here is 2017 Chad Green vs. 2018 Chad Green:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/9	Fastball Whiff%
2017	69	1.83	1.75	40.7%	6.7%	0.52	37.9%
2018	46	2.74	3.01	31.5%	5.0%	1.17	27.7%

Good numbers overall but also some discouraging trends. Green’s strikeouts are down, he’s not getting as many swings and misses with his trademark fastball, and his home run rate is up. He’s allowed six homers in 46 innings this season after allowing four homers in 69 innings last year, so yeah. That includes two back-breaking homers in his last two appearances of the first half.

I think Green’s step back this season — and by step back, I mean going from elite to merely above-average — has more to do with it being incredibly hard to succeed as a fastball only guy. Green’s slider kinda stinks but his fastball is great in terms of velocity and spin rate. But unless you have Chapman’s velocity, it’s hard to throw fastballs by hitters long-term. Green did it most of the season. Things kinda got away from him those last two outings.

Aside from Chapman, pretty much every reliever in the bullpen has been written off at some point this season. People were ready to move on from Betances, from David Robertson, from Jonathan Holder, so on and so forth. It seems it is now Green’s turn. Fortunately, the Yankees call the shots, not fans, and they’ll stick with Green and work to get him right. And, chances are, he’ll get right soon enough. No, Green has not been as good as last year. But he’s still been very good overall, and I see those last two outings as more of a bump in the road than anything.

Jonathan Holder

Midseason Grade: A

Another reliever who gets an A. Fourth in five reviews so far. Holder was in the Opening Day bullpen as basically the last guy on the roster, though he quickly earned a demotion to Triple-A after allowing seven runs and eight baserunners in his first 2.2 innings of the season. That includes taking the loss in a frustrating 14-inning game against the Orioles on April 6th.

Holder went to Triple-A, resurfaced in late April after Adam Warren went down with a lat issue, and since then he’s been out of this world good. He’s thrown 36.1 innings with a 0.50 ERA (1.99 FIP) since returning, with a good strikeout rate (22.4%) and an excellent walk rate (3.7%). It felt like he “arrived” on June 18th, when he inherited runners on the corners with no outs and a one-run lead against the Nationals, and didn’t allow a run to score.

Holder’s newfound success comes after a change in his pitch mix. He went to Triple-A, scrapped his high-spin curveball, and came back as a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. He’s always had the slider and changeup, but they took a backseat to the curveball. Now the curveball is taking a backseat to the slider, which he uses against righties, and the changeup, which he uses against lefties.

Goodbye curveball (and cutter), hello slider and changeup. That adjustment has helped Holder make the jump from up-and-down depth arm to reliable middle reliever. In fact, on most other teams, I reckon Holder would be pitching in a traditional setup role by now. But because the Yankees are so deep in quality relievers, Boone is able to use Holder in the middle innings, when the starter bows out early and it’s a little too early to go to Betances and Green. Holder has been invaluable in that role.

Tommy Kahnle

Midseason Grade: F

Tough, but fair. Expectations were high for Kahnle coming into the season because he was so good last year and so effective in the postseason. Instead, Kahnle has been injured and ineffective this year. He’s allowed eleven runs and 16 baserunners in nine big league innings around a biceps/shoulder injury, and, worst of all, he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Ten apiece. Ouch.

The Yankees sent Kahnle to Triple-A in early June — he essentially lost his middle innings job to Holder — and, with Triple-A Scranton, he owns a 2.81 ERA (2.32 FIP) with 37.6% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 16 innings. That’s good. Certainly better than what he did in his limited big league time this year. So it’s not like Kahnle has suddenly forgotten how to pitch, you know?

The big issue this year is fastball velocity. Kahnle’s heater averaged 98.1 mph last year and 97.0 mph the year before. This season it was down to 95.6 mph. The fastest pitch he threw with the Yankees this year checked in at 97.6 mph. That’s still below last year’s average fastball velocity. Minor league velocity reports can be unreliable, though they have Kahnle sitting 95-96 mph with the RailRiders.

On one hand, 95-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs at the big league level. Holder’s fastball is averaging only 93.2 mph this season, for example. On the other hand, Kahnle is not exactly blessed with great command. He’s a pure grip it and rip it pitcher, and hey, that works too. Worked great for him last year. But Kahnle at 95-96 mph is a different animal than Kahnle at 98-99 mph. Especially since the velocity on his changeup is unchanged. The velocity gap between the two pitches is smaller and that makes both of them less effective.

Kahnle has been down in the minors long enough to delay his free agency, which I guess is good for the Yankees. I suspect they’d happily trade that extra year of control for a healthy and effective Kahnle at the big league level though. He was part of that big trade last season with the idea that he’d be a long-term bullpen piece. Instead, Kahnle has been a non-factor this season, and it’s unclear whether he’ll regain last year’s effectiveness at some point.

David Robertson

Midseason Grade: B+

Ho hum, another typically strong David Robertson season. He’s basically the CC Sabathia of the bullpen at this point. Still very effective, still lots of folks seemingly ready to call him done any time he stumbles. Robertson had a rough patch in May but has otherwise been very good this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA (2.47 FIP) with strikeout (30.5%) and walk (8.1%) rates right in line with his career norms. He is the same guy he’s always been.

Betances’ reemergence and Green’s overall effectiveness has allowed Boone to use Robertson in all sorts of situations. He’s brought him into the middle of an inning to escape a jam, used him as a seventh and eighth inning guy, and Robertson has even gone 2-for-2 in save chances on days Chapman was unavailable. Robertson has made 43 appearances this season. Here’s when he’s entered the game:

Sixth Inning: 4 times
Seventh Inning: 13 times
Eighth Inning: 17 times
Ninth Inning: 5 times
Extra Innings: 4 times

That is a man who is not married to a specific inning. Robertson was out of this world good after rejoining the Yankees last season — he allowed four runs in 35 innings after the trade — and he was great in the postseason. He hasn’t been quite that good this year, but he’s been very good overall. As good as he is, I still get the feeling Robertson is underappreciated. He’s a hell of a reliever.

Chasen Shreve

Midseason Grade: D

I suppose you could argue Shreve is meeting expectations. He owns a 4.54 ERA (5.22 FIP) with 28.8% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 33.2 innings this season. From 2016-17, he pitched to a 4.37 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 11.2% walks in 78.1 innings. Shreve is the same guy right now that he’s been the last two years. Unfortunately, that makes him a replacement level reliever.

As the very last guy in the bullpen — and that’s what I think he is at this point, I think Cole has jumped him in the pecking order — Shreve is okay. He’s someone who takes a beating in blowout games, basically. The problem isn’t Shreve, really. It’s that Boone keeps using him in somewhat leveraged left-on-left matchup situations even though Shreve isn’t good against lefties. They’re hitting .239/.364/.556 (.386 wOBA) against him this year. Yuck.

The Yankees clearly like Shreve. He wouldn’t have stuck on the roster this long otherwise. And I get it. He’s a just turned 28-year-old southpaw with a history of missing bats. Guys like that are hard to find. If another team had Shreve and they designated him for assignment, I’d look at him as a potential reclamation project pickup. If Boone stops using Shreve as a left-on-left guy and starts using him as a mop-up man, he’ll be fine. It’d be fine. Just fine.

Adam Warren

Midseason Grade: B

Once again, Warren has been a boringly reliable Swiss Army Knife reliever this season. He did miss more than six weeks with a lat strain, which drags down his midseason grade, otherwise the guy has thrown 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA (2.94 FIP) and very good strikeout (28.4%) and walk (8.8%) rates. And he is what, the sixth best reliever in the bullpen? Yeah, that’ll play.

I get the sense Warren will take on increased responsibility in the second half. The injury threw a wrench into things in the first half and it seems Boone is still trying to figure out when exactly to use him. In the second half though, I think Warren will be used for more multi-inning stints in the middle of the game as the Yankees look to control Luis Severino’s workload and also try to shorten games by not letting their starter go through the lineup a third time.

Either way, Warren has again been a reliable bullpen arm who flies under the radar because the Yankees have so many good relievers. Missing all that time with the lat injury stinks, but you know what? It gave Holder an opportunity to emerge, and the Yankees are a better team now because of it. In that sense, Warren’s injury turned out to be a good thing. Now he’s healthy and again an effective do it all bullpen option.

2018 Midseason Review: The Rotation

July 18, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

It is kind of incredible how good the Yankees rotation has been despite a laundry list of injuries (spoiler alert: three of the starting pitchers discussed below are or were on the disabled list) and the usual off-season/pre-season question marks. They rank:

5th in GB%
5th in soft contact percentage
6th in fWAR
6th in park-adjusted FIP
11th in K%
12th in BB%
12th in park-adjusted ERA

It’s not an elite group, to be sure – but it’s nonetheless a strength when a pitching staff is average across the board. And it’s especially nice to see for a team that purportedly tried and failed to improve throughout the off-season, and remains ever-vigilant as the trade deadline approaches.

Let’s take a look at how the individual parts measure-up.

Domingo German

Midseason Grade: D

It would be easy to look at German’s numbers as a starter and settle on an ‘F’ for his grade. There are several ugly peripherals in those 63.1 IP, including a 5.97 ERA (6th worst among starters with at least 60 IP), 4.58 FIP, and 1.71 HR/9, and he has failed to make it out of the fifth in three of his last four starts. That’s not great, Bob.

But we’re grading relative to expectations here, and I don’t think the expectations for the team’s 6th or 7th starter were all that high. Moreover, there are a lot of positives hidden in German’s season, too. His 26.6% strikeout rate is well above-average, his 8.4% walk rate is right around average, and his 41.7% groundball rate is right there, too. He’s also authored five quality starts (in twelve chances), and had another two that were just shy of that not-so-lofty standard.

Does that make up for his five starts that ranged from “bad” to “awful?” Not at all. But I do think that the combination of his slot on the depth chart, strong peripherals, and fifty-fifty shot of giving the team an adequate outing brings him above the standard of a failure.

Going forward, there are two things to pay attention to with German. The first is simple: his velocity.

He has lost about 2 MPH off of his fastball from the beginning of the season, which isn’t too shocking as he spent the first month in the bullpen. At the same time, though, he’s lost just over 1 MPH since he first joined the rotation on May 6 – and fastball velocity tends to increase as the season goes on and the weather warms up. It’s not necessarily a concern at this point, but it’s there.

The other is German’s pitch use in general. Fastballs (his four-seamer and sinker) represented 40.6% of his offerings in May, 47.6% in June, and 55.9% so far in July. With his velocity backing up a bit and three of his last four starts being bad, German’s pitch selection may well be an issue.

Sonny Gray

Midseason Grade: F

I was excited when the Yankees swung their deal for Gray last July, as a long-term believer in his approach, stuff, and resume. And I was certain that he was going to come into 2018 looking more like the pitcher that they dealt for (that is, the guy we saw with the A’s in the first-half) than the nibbler that the Yankees received. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, and Gray is sitting on a 5.46 ERA (88th out of 92 pitchers with 90-plus IP).

There really isn’t a positive way to spin Gray’s season to-date, either. He has seven quality starts in eighteen outings, and has failed to make it out of the fifth seven times. He’s allowed four-plus runs eight times, and he’s just barely averaging 5 IP per start – both of which make him a larger drain on the bullpen than the other starters. Gray may not be the worst starter in the league right now, but he’s fairly close when you focus on pitchers who have been in the rotation the entire season.

If I had to hazard a guess at the cause of this, I would focus on his pitch selection. Or, perhaps more accurately, the anti-fastball approach of the Yankees in general.

Gray is throwing fewer four-seamers than ever before, and more curves and sliders. From 2014 through 2017, he averaged about 35% four-seamers and 30% breaking balls; in 2018, those numbers are 26.7% and 39%, respectively. That’s a fairly drastic change of approach, and that sequencing could undoubtedly cause issues.

At least he ended the first-half on a high note.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

Loaisiga is one of the better stories of the Yankees season, having made his way back from multiple injuries to dominate four levels of the minors between 2017 and 2018, and making the jump from Double-A to the majors in mid-June. He has alternated good starts with bad so far, but the sum of his parts has been fantastic – he has a 28.4% strikeout rate, 60.0% groundball rate, 3.00 ERA, and 2.87 FIP. It’s only eighteen innings, but it’s encouraging. And, when you see the way his pitches move, it’s not surprising that folk haven’t been able to hit him with authority just yet. Just look at that change-up:

FILTHY 89mph Changeup from Jonathan Loaisiga.

This guy is nasty. pic.twitter.com/QyN4WcIY3I

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) June 15, 2018

That’s a thing of beauty, isn’t it?

It was short-lived, though, as he had to have a cortisone shot in his shoulder, and is currently shut-down. We knew that he was on some manner of innings limit, considering that he didn’t pitch at all in 2014 or 2015 due to injuries, and tossed a combined 35.0 IP between 2016 and 2017 around Tommy John surgery – but seeing him go down with shoulder inflammation isn’t what you want.

Jordan Montgomery

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

The Yankees were only able to enjoy six starts from Montgomery this year, as the 25-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Those six starts were 27.1 innings of 3.62 ERA ball, which is quite good … but that’s all that they’ll get from him until sometime next Summer.

If you’re looking for some semblance of a silver lining here, it is worth noting that Montgomery had no prior injury history of note, and they didn’t play the waiting game with rest and rehabilitation. Surgery isn’t great, to be sure, but if it’s a necessity, sooner is better than later.

CC Sabathia

Midseason Grade: A

Is an ‘A’ somewhat aggressive here? Maybe. But it’s difficult to be anything other than impressed by how successful Sabathia’s reinvention has been. His 3.51 ERA is his lowest since 2012, and he has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 66% of his starts. With the exception of Luis Severino, no Yankees starter has kept the team in a better position to win than Sabathia.

Are there issues with Sabathia’s season? Sure. He spent two weeks on the disabled list in April, and he’s routinely shelled when he has to turn the lineup over for a third time (when opposing batters hit .359/.404/.644) – but his overall numbers speak for themselves. As does his pitch selection:

Sabathia has all but eliminated his four-seamer at this point in his career, and he’s also throwing his sinker far less often this season. As per Brooks Baseball, there have been eleven starts in which Sabathia hasn’t used a single four-seamer, including his last four outings. Cutters and sliders make up more than 70% of his offerings, and that mix was worked wonders thus far.

The All-Star break was well-timed for the soon to be 38-year-old, as he has scuffled in his last two starts. He’ll have nine days of rest by the time he gets the call, and he has thrived on extra rest this year, posting a 1.59 ERA in his six starts with six-plus days of rest. At his age, it would make sense for the Yankees to continue to give him as much extra rest as possible; whether or not they’re able to is the question.

Luis Severino

Midseason Grade: A+

I’m going to present a series of MLB rankings for Severino, as I think that illustrates the greatness of his season better than any narrative can. He ranks:

4th in ERA+
5th in bWAR
5th in FIP
7th in fWAR
7th in ERA
7th in IP
9th in WHIP
10th in strikeouts
10th in K-BB%
11th in K%

In addition to those lofty placements, he has also completed at least five innings in all twenty starts, and has only allowed more than three runs twice. He’s a bona fide ace, through and through.

Severino did stumble into the break a bit, allowing 7 runs in his last two starts of the half, so he’ll almost certainly appreciate the extra rest afforded by the break. His next start isn’t until July 23, so he’ll have had ten days of rest (not including the All-Star game) when he takes the mound.

And, for what it’s worth, he had a fun All-Star game, catching Aaron Judge’s home run, and striking out Bryce Harper and Brandon Crawford:

I’m so glad that he’s a Yankee.

Masahiro Tanaka

Midseason Grade: D

Last year was by far the worst of Tanaka’s short career, but it can be split up into manageable sample sizes. His ERA sat at 6.34 on Father’s Day last year, and fans were beginning to loudly wonder if the team would be better off with Tanaka opting out. And then a switch went on, and he was great the rest of the way. From June 23 through the end of the season, Tanaka pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 101.2 IP, with very good peripherals. That success carried over into the playoffs (and then some), as he posted a microscopic 0.90 ERA in 20 IP.

And then the calendar flipped to 2018, and the wheels fell right back off.

In addition to his 4.54 ERA (which is a tick below-average, translating into a 95 ERA+), Tanaka has bottomed-out in walk, ground ball, and home run rates, posting career-worsts across the board. His 4.90 FIP is the worst of his career, too. Now, to be fair, he’s not as bad as he was in the first half of 2017 – so there’s that.

The problem with Tanaka is easily identified – his propensity for home runs. He’s allowing more fly balls than ever this year, which means he’s allowing gopher balls at a career-worst pace of 1.94 per 9 innings. That’s the fifth-worst home run rate in the game, and that’s why he’s allowed 18 bombs in just 83.1 IP. And, for the sake of comparison, every pitcher that has allowed more has also thrown at least 18 additional innings.

One interesting note: Tanaka’s improvements last year seemingly coincided with more splitters and sliders, and sinkers being traded out in favor of four-seamers. That trend has continued to the extreme this season:

Could that have something to do with his gopheritis? Perhaps.

I was almost inclined to go with an ‘F’ for all of this, but Tanaka has at least given the Yankees some length in his starts, and he’s a league-average-ish starter. That’s not what you want from a pitcher on his contract, but he hasn’t been a straight-up dud like Gray.

2018 Midseason Review: The Outfielders

July 17, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

On the position player side of things, the outfield has been the biggest strength for the 2018 Yankees so far this season. The team’s outfielders have combined for a .261/.353/.480 (123 OPS+) batting line and they rank fourth in baseball in OBP, second in SLG, and second in OPS+. They’re also third with +26 DRS and second with a +15.1 UZR. The outfield ranks near the top of the league in offense and defense. Pretty great. Let’s review the outfield’s first half.

Brett Gardner

Midseason Grade: B+

Gardner deserves a “meets expectations” note more than an actual letter grade. He is, once again, putting up numbers right in line with his career norms. Yes, Gardner has his ups and downs like every player, but it is uncanny how consistent he is on a year-to-year basis. Look at this:

	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	K%	BB%	WAR
2018	.254/.345/.403	107	14.9%	11.7%	+4.1 (pace)
2015-17	.262/.348/.397	104	18.4%	10.6%	+3.2 (per 162 games)
Career	.263/.347/.394	104	18.3%	10.4%	+4.1 (per 162 games)

Consistency is boring. Consistency is Brett Gardner. Year in, year out Gardner provides the same level of on-base ability and defense, and that has been true again thus far in 2018. He’s also provided several big hits this season, most notably his go-ahead triple against the Red Sox, game-tying homer against the Astros, and go-ahead homer against the Mets. By WPA, three of the team’s six biggest hits of the first half came off Gardner’s bat.

As indicated back in Spring Training, Aaron Boone has cut back on Gardner’s workload this season. Gardner, despite being the regular leadoff hitter, has only the fourth most plate appearances on the team, and he’s on pace for 628 plate appearances on the season. That’s after averaging 706.5 plate appearances per 162 games from 2014-17. Gardner is seeing less time against lefties and less time overall. Boone said he’d try to get Gardner more rest and he has.

And, with Gardner set to turn 35 in August, I am totally on board with this plan. The Yankees have four viable everyday outfielders, which makes rotating them a breeze. Gardner is not the Yankees best player, though he is a heart and soul player who really sets the tone from the leadoff spot. Keeping him fresh and productive should be a priority and it has been to date. Gardner’s been great. Same guy he’s always been, and that is a-okay with me.

Aaron Hicks

Midseason Grade: A-

Hicks is a tough one to grade because what were the expectations coming into the season? There were reasons to be skeptical about his 2017 performance given his career to date, though the high-end tools are fairly obvious. Hicks is a great athlete, he’s a switch-hitter with tremendous plate discipline, and he’s a very strong defensive center fielder. But he never did anything like what he did last year. How many people expected him to do it again?

I’m all in on Hicks and I expected him to carry his 2017 performance into 2018 — I even boldly predicted he’d lead the 2018 Yankees in WAR — and you know what? He’s done pretty much exactly that. He’s traded some batting average for power, but the overall numbers are very close:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	SB-CS	K%	BB%	WAR
2017	361	.266/.372/.475	127	15	10-5	18.6%	14.1%	+3.3
2018	318	.249/.348/.491	128	16	8-1	19.5%	12.9%	+2.6

Last season Hicks started hot and finished slow and hurt. This year he started slow and hurt before getting hot. Hicks strained his intercostal on Opening Day, the very first game of the season, and he missed about two weeks. Then, once he returned, it took some time to get going. Hicks did hit .273/.367/.564 (152 wRC+) with 13 homers in his final 200 plate appearances of the first half. That, my friends, is star level production.

Among full-time center fielders only the great Mike Trout and slightly less great Lorenzo Cain have Hicks beat in WAR this season. WAR of course is not the be all, end all stat, but it shouldn’t be discarded either. Point is, Hicks is a comfortably above-average player on both sides of the ball. Very good offense and very good defense. He’s a former first round pick and highly regarded prospect — Baseball America ranked him 19th on their 2010 top 100 list — who’s put it all together. Hicks is not starting to put it together. He’s put it together. It’s happened.

Aaron Judge

Midseason Grade: B+

I feel like a B+ is a tough grade but I’m going to stick with it. Judge has been objectively awesome this season. He just hasn’t been as awesome as last season, which was truly one of the greatest rookie seasons in baseball history. It was the greatest power hitting season by a rookie in baseball history. Judge set the bar awfully high last year and he hasn’t quite returned to that level this year.

That said, Judge has been great this year. He went into the All-Star break with a .276/.392/.544 (155 wRC+) batting line with 25 home runs. Judge is third in baseball in home runs and, among the 164 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, he is 13th in OBP, 12th in SLG, and ninth in wRC+. Add in above-average right field defense and both the FanGraphs (+4.5) and Baseball Reference (+5.0) versions of WAR rank him as a top five position player in 2018. Pretty great.

And yet, despite that all around greatness, it does still feel like something is holding Judge back this season, and that something is his sudden inability to hit away from Yankee Stadium. You’d expect any player to hit better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, though Judge has taken it to the extreme this year. The home/road splits are stark:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	K%	BB%	Hard%	xwOBA	BABIP
Home	166	.355/.478/.735	223	27.8%	19.1%	54.6%	.459	.452
Road	185	.205/.308/.373	89	34.6%	12.1%	42.0%	.358	.288

Hmmm. Judge was better at home (199 wRC+) than on the road (147 wRC+) last season, though the split wasn’t nearly this drastic. Also, Judge wasn’t a below-average offensive producer on the road last year — he was a much better than average offensive producer on the road last year, in fact — as he’s been this year. There are 136 players with at least 150 plate appearances at home and on the road this season. Judge’s wRC+ split is by far the largest:

Aaron Judge: +134 (home wRC+ minus road wRC+)
Yasmani Grandal: +104
Manny Machado: +95
Trevor Story: +80
Jason Kipnis: +79

For whatever reason — and I have no idea what the reason(s) is — Judge has significantly higher ground ball (47.3% vs. 36.4%) and pull (48.2% vs. 35.5%) rates on the road than at home, which certainly helps explain the difference in production. He’s hitting the ball in the air and to all fields at home. On the road, he’s been a left field hitter who hits a lot of balls on the ground. A few weeks ago I noticed teams were pounding Judge inside with fastballs, leading to more pulled grounders, but why would that be limited to the road?

Maybe the Yankees have an elaborate sign-stealing system at home that explains Judge’s production. That’d be quite the story. Then again, if that is the case, why don’t other Yankees have huge home/road splits? The team’s next largest home/road split is Didi Gregorius at +45 wRC+. No one else is above +10. Part of me wonders whether Judge has duped himself into thinking the short porch is the only way he can hit opposite field dingers, so he’s trying to compensate by pulling everything on the road. That sounds kinda silly. He can hit the ball out in any direction in any park.

It is also possible Judge’s home/road woes are sample size noise. And hey, that might apply to last year. Maybe this is the real Aaron Judge away from Yankee Stadium and last year was the anomaly. I’d bet against it, but you never know. Whatever it is, it sure would be rad if Judge figured it out in the second half. For now, he was great in the first half. Not as great as last year, but still great. It still feels like Judge has more to give because of his road woes, though maybe that’s an unfair expectation on my part.

Giancarlo Stanton

Midseason Grade: B

I can already tell a small army of Yankees fans are upset I had the audacity to give Stanton that grade for his first half. He had a rough start to the season, especially at Yankee Stadium, and first impressions matter. They can stick with folks a looong time. That slow start is a thing of the past though. Stanton has been getting better and better as the season has progressed:

Stanton is sitting on a .278/.346/.518 (133 wRC+) batting line with 23 home runs overall — he’s on pace for 40 home runs and +5 WAR — and, since May 1st, he’s hitting .298/.361/.558 (147 wRC+). Giancarlo career: .269/.359/.551 (143 wRC+). Giancarlo since May 1st: .298/.361/.558 (147 wRC+). Aside from a little more batting average these last few weeks, Stanton has been hitting like he has his entire career to date, which is borderline MVP caliber.

There are two lingering offensive concerns with Stanton. He didn’t hit righties and he didn’t hit in Yankee Stadium earlier this season. Remember when I said Judge had the largest home/road wRC+ split? Stanton has the third smallest at -67 wRC+ points. His overall numbers at home (97 wRC+) and against righties (105 wRC+) still aren’t great, though things are evening out:

	Home	vs. RHP
March/April	.182/.257/.333 (59 wRC+)	.202/.290/.337 (74 wRC+)
May	.240/.328/.480 (113 wRC+)	.186/.279/.305 (58 wRC+)
June	.231/.311/.462 (102 wRC+)	.304/.364/.544 (144 wRC+)
July	.333/.333/.722 (185 wRC+)	.314/.352/.588 (155 wRC+)

Stanton currently leads the Yankees in hits (103) and total bases (192), and is one point behind Miguel Andujar for the team lead in batting average, and he leads baseball in four-hit games, if you can believe that. He has five, Jose Altuve has four, and a bunch of dudes have three. Stanton has five four-hit games and the rest of the Yankees have five (Gardner has two and Andujar, Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez have one each).

Furthermore, Stanton has handled the shift to left field about as well as I would’ve expected a player with zero experience at the position to handle it. He lost two balls in the sun in Spring Training in literally his first left field game and that seems to have led to the perception he is not a good defender, which is a flat out wrong. Is Stanton a Gold Glover in left? No, but he’s done well (+4 DRS if anyone cares) and he remains a strong defender in right.

Based on what I’ve seen on social media and in our comments and in the media, I’ve come to the conclusion Stanton is A-Rod 2.0 in terms of how people feel about him. He is tolerated when he does well and lots of folks are ready to pounce and blame him for everything that goes wrong. Starting pitcher gets bombed? Stanton should’ve hit more homers. I felt it in Spring Training and I’ve seen nothing since then to convince me things will be different. Whatever.

Expecting Stanton to repeat last year’s 59-homer effort was never fair or realistic — that was a top ten home run season all-time — though his slow start to the season was disappointing, especially at home, and fans let him hear it. It was dumb, but whatever. Giancarlo has been the Yankees’ best hitter since May 1st. He’s been hitting for average and power, and playing wherever the team needs. The slow start prevents him from getting an A in the first half. Otherwise Stanton’s been pretty great, and I’m looking forward to seeing what he does in the second half as he grows more comfortable with his new team.

2018 Midseason Review: The Infielders

July 17, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Torres and Gregorius. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

A large portion of the Yankees off-season was spent worrying about who would be manning the keystone and the hot corner. There was buzz, of course, that Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar would be given the keys eventually – but it seemed unlikely (at best) that the organization would be starting two rookies on Opening Day. It wasn’t until late-February that they added a legitimate veteran option to the mix in Brandon Drury, and three weeks later Neil Walker was signed; and the short-term fates of Torres and Andujar felt sealed.

Of course, nothing ever quite goes according to plan.

Miguel Andujar

Midseason Grade: B

It feels a bit strange to hang a ‘B’ on a 23-year-old rookie that finished the first-half slashing .279/.316/.489 (116 wRC+) with a rookie-best 41 extra-base hits, but here we are. And so I’ll start with the negative:

Andujar is a bad defensive third baseman.

Defensive metrics are notoriously fickle, particularly when small sample sizes are at issue, but Andujar ranks dead last among third basemen in DRS (-12) and UZR (-6.8), second to last in Total Zone, and third to last in FRAA. He’s sure-handed, as evidenced by his ranking 8th in converting routine plays at the position per Inside Edge fielding data – but he’s third to last in ‘likely’ plays, and last in plays with ‘even’ odds. And that matches the eye test.

Offensively, however, Andujar has been quite good. The 4.7% walk rate is disconcerting, but he makes plenty of contact (17.4% strikeout rate), hits the ball hard (90.1 MPH exit velocity against a league-average of 88.6), and hits for power (.210 ISO). And he’s already shown a penchant for heroics:

Andujar has had his ups and downs offensively, but it’s notable that he has posted a 98 (or better) wRC+ each month so far, and has avoided any prolonged slumps. And his walk rate might just bear watching, as he has worked a free pass in 10.3% of his July plate appearances, which does correspond with a small but noticeable dip in his swing percentage.

Greg Bird

Midseason Grade: C

I was tempted to give Bird an incomplete, as he spent all of April and most of May on the disabled list. But he has been a fixture in the lineup since coming back for good on May 26, and he’s healthy and hitting right now. And, with the All-Star break upon us, we now have three relatively equal sample sizes of Bird’s performance to look at – and the similarities of his three partial seasons may surprise you:

Bird’s walk percentage, strikeout rate, and isolated power are all within spitting distance on a year-to-year basis, so the shape of his production is something of a known commodity. The greatest outlier here seems to be rooted in his BABIP, which is all over the place – and for good reason, as his batted ball profile has varied dramatically:

There are three tremendous differences to be noted here (two of which are dependent upon each other): his grounders, his flyballs, and his pull percentage. Bird’s putting the ball on the ground way more, which naturally means that he’s getting the ball into the air less often, and he’s pulling the majority of his batted balls to the right side of the field. And, given that he hits against the shift quite often, that’s why he’s batting .059 on grounders … against a league-average of around .240. Some of that is undoubtedly luck, as well, but a lead-footed slugger pulling lots of balls into the teeth of the defense isn’t a great means to an end. Though, to be fair, his groundball percentage is lower than league-average – it’s simply higher than it should be for a hitter of his ilk (and trending in the wrong direction).

On the plus side, Bird’s quality of contact is quite good. His soft-hit percentage is nearly eight percentage points better than average, and that difference is split between medium and hard contact, both of which are around four percentage points above-average. Put that all together, and his average exit velocity is 88.5 MPH, which is … well … average.

All told, Bird is batting .214/.317/.457, which is good for a 109 wRC+. That puts him right in-line with the league-average first baseman, who’s batting .249/.331/.438 (108 wRC+). nd he posted a .281/.359/.625 slash line in his last nine games of the first-half, which works out to an average grade for me.

Didi Gregorius

Midseason Grade: A

I am not sure that I have ever seen any one player be as good as Gregorius was in March/April and as bad as he was in May in the course of one season, let alone back-to-back months. Take a look for yourself:

March/April: .327/.421/.735, 24 R, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 18 BB, 200 wRC+
May: .149/.184/.213, 9 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, -1 wRC+

From a broader perspective, Gregorius was the third-best hitter in baseball in March/April (by wRC+), just behind Mookie Betts (210 wRC+) and Manny Machado (201). He followed that up by ranking dead last among 173 qualified hitters in May. That’s nothing short of impressive. Gregorius has righted the ship, though, and is hitting .292/.341/.468 (119 wRC+) since the calendar flipped to June. And he finished the half slashing .263/.326/.474 (114 wRC+) with 17 HR and a career-high 10 SB. He also continued his ownership of Corey Kluber in the final series of the half:

The most noteworthy tidbit about Gregorius’s season involves the three true outcomes. He’s three walks shy of a career-high, he’s on-pace for 30 home runs (against last year’s best of 25), and his strikeout rate is the second-best of his career (and nearly ten percentage points better than league-average). You can see that charted out here:

All of those lines are trending in the right direction, and work together to give us the best version of Gregorius to-date. It is interesting to note that he did walk at an above-average rate way back in 2013 with the Diamondbacks, and then developed an itchier trigger finger over time. Perhaps this is simply his final form.

Gleyber Torres

Midseason Grade: A+

Were you expecting something else?

Torres hit the DL with a hip injury on the Fourth of July, but that has been the only aspect of his season to-date that has even the slightest tinge of disappointment. The 21-year-old is slashing .294/.350/.555 (143 wRC+) with 15 HR, and he has already shown a flair for the dramatic multiple times over. In True Yankee™ fashion, Torres hit a walk-off home run against the Indians in his fifteenth big league game:

How about that?

What otherwise stands out the most about his season thus far is his power. Those 15 bombs have come in 241 PA – or one every 16.1 PA. Torres hit 24 HR in the minors, across 1591 PA … or once every 66.3 PA. It isn’t uncommon for a player to develop more power over time, and the majority of his time in the minors was spent in pitcher’s parks – but most scouting reports saw him as a guy that could hit 15 to 20 home runs in a season. At his current pace, he would hit 40 home runs in a 650 PA season. That’s quite the difference.

On the off-chance that you want some cold water thrown on you, consider his plate discipline rates:

The top row represents Torres, and the bottom is league-average. The short version: Torres swings more often at pitches in and out of the zone, and makes less contact than the average batter on pitches in and out of the zone. It is worth noting, however, that his swing percentage on pitches outside of the zone has been declining at a slow-and-steady pace.

Defense has been a mixed bag for Torres, as well – but it’s kind of difficult for me to make much out of that. Heading into 2018, Torres had played just 18 games at second base, so he is essentially learning the position on the fly. Moreover, unlike Andujar, Torres has long drawn strong marks for his defense, with most believing that he could stick at shortstop long-term. And, also unlike Andujar, Torres’s defensive metrics are all over the place. DRS has him as a +2 defender, whereas UZR has him at -4.3. I’m confident that his defense isn’t a concern.

Neil Walker

Could Walker look any less enthusiastic after hitting a home run? (Jason Miller/Getty)

Midseason Grade: F

I wanted to be cheeky and go with an F+ or a D-, but I simply couldn’t justify it. Walker is hitting .197/.278/.285, which translates to a 55 wRC+ … which ranks 248th among 258 hitters with at least 200 PA. And his -0.7 WAR is even worse, ranking 253rd among that same group of players. Saying that Walker has been bad is an understatement.

As there’s no real arguing that Walker has been anything less than awful, let’s just dig into some of the few good things about his 2018. There was this walk-off:

There’s also the fact that he’s only making $4 MM, which is a veritable drop in the bucket. And he has – as far as we know – taken his utility role with quiet dignity and grace, playing 280.2 innings at first, 122.0 at second, and 42.0 at third. And you could always hold out hope that a player that was as good as Walker for so long couldn’t possibly be so bad all of the sudden … right?

It seems likely that Walker would have been gone already if the Yankees didn’t have Bird, Drury, and Torres go down with injuries at different times, doesn’t it? And that means his time in pinstripes may be running out as Torres is slated to return shortly.

2018 Midseason Review: The Catchers

July 16, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The All-Star break has arrived and this is the perfect time to take a step back and review the first half of what has been a very successful 2018 Yankees season to date. We’ll review the team and hand out some letter grades (relative to expectations), because why not? We begin today with the catchers.

Coming into the 2018 season, the catcher position was expected to be a strength for the Yankees. Gary Sanchez established himself as one of the top backstops in baseball last season — certainly as the top power-hitting catcher, at the very least — and the expectation was he would again produce at that pace this year, if not improve. Instead, it’s another Yankees catcher who has improved this year. Let’s review the season to date behind the plate.

Kyle Higashioka

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

We’re going through the players alphabetically and I suppose it’s fitting we begin with an incomplete grade. Season’s still far from over. Kyle Higashioka has been on the big league roster for less than a month as the backup catcher during Gary Sanchez’s disabled list stint. Higashioka was the No. 3 catcher on the depth chart coming into the season and he had to bide his time in Triple-A until an injury struck.

Prior to the call-up, Higashioka authored a weak .191/.265/.328 (66 wRC+) batting line with five homers in 51 games with Triple-A Scranton. In eleven games with the Yankees he’s gone 5-for-30 (.167) with three home runs. His first three big league hits were dingers! Higashioka and Alfonso Soriano are the only players in franchise history to do that.

Defensively, I’m not really sure what to say about a guy with 81 innings behind the plate. Runners are 9-for-9 stealing bases against him, which is terrible, though Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) says he’s been a slightly above-average pitch-framer, so that’s good? Better than the alternative, I suppose.

Ultimately, Higashioka has been a perfectly cromulent backup backup catcher. Three dingers in 33 plate appearances is more offense than I would’ve expected from a third string catcher, and his receiving has been fine. (The stolen bases are another matter.) Higashioka’s been in the organization long enough that he knows the pitching staff fairly well. He’s been fine in his limited big league team. That’s a good way to describe it. Fine. He’s been fine.

Austin Romine

Midseason Grade: A+

I’m not sure any player on the roster has exceeded expectations more than Austin Romine so far this season. Romine was legitimately bad the last two years. He hit .228/.271/.330 (57 wRC+) in 428 plate appearances from 2016-17 and, for what it’s worth, the Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) defensive numbers had him at +1.8 runs above average behind the plate, which is not nearly good enough to make up for the lack of offense.

The defensive numbers are basically unchanged this year, but, for the first time in his big league career, Romine has been a legitimate threat at the plate. He currently owns a .270/.333/.492 (124 wRC+) batting line — a .492 slugging percentage! — with six home runs in 136 plate appearances. Romine hit seven home runs total in 611 career plate appearances prior to this season. Now he has six in 136 plate appearances.

Early in the season Romine went the Giancarlo Stanton path and really closed up his batting stance — I’m not going to embed the image again, but you can see it here — and while he doesn’t seem as closed at the moment, there has been a mechanical adjustment. It has not been a dumb luck hot streak for Romine. Some numbers:

Hard Contact Rate: 36.2% (27.3% from 2016-17)
Ground Ball Rate: 41.9% (46.0% from 2016-17)
Opposite Field Rate: 40.4% (32.7% from 2016-17)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.1 mph (85.7 mph from 2016-17)
Expected wOBA: .342 (.291 from 2016-17)
Chase Rate: 25.4% (37.8% from 2016-17)

One on hand, we’re talking about 136 plate appearances spread across 95 team games. Context is important. On the other hand, Romine has never done anything like this before in his career. More hard contact, more balls in the air, more balls to the opposite field, fewer chases out of the zone. Pretty good combination there. The results are backed up by promising underlying trends.

Will Romine continue at this pace all year? Who knows. Expecting him to maintain a 124 wRC+ the rest of the way might be asking too much. But there is enough underlying improvement here to think Romine now is a better hitter than he was the last two years. And, even if he reverts back to pre-2018 Romine, his first half already happened. These 136 awesome plate appearances happened and they’ve helped the Yankees win games. Even the biggest Austin Romine fans did not expect this. What a first half for the backup catcher.

Gary Sanchez

Midseason Grade: D

Relative to expectations, yes, this has been a very disappointing season for Gary Sanchez. And not just because of the groin injury that has sidelined him since June 25th. Prior to the injury Sanchez hit .190/.291/.433 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 265 plate appearances, and his passed ball issues remain. Gary allowed one passed ball every 50.2 innings before the injury. The MLB average is one passed ball every 117.1 innings.

Relative to big league catchers, Sanchez had a pretty good first half. I mean, a .190 batting average is a .190 batting average, and that’s terrible. But catchers are hitting .231/.305/.373 (85 wRC+) overall this season. Sanchez is in the ballpark with his OBP and his power is far better than pretty much everyone else. Gary hasn’t played in three weeks and he still leads all catchers with 14 home runs. The power has been his saving grace.

More than anything, Sanchez’s problem this season has been pop-ups. His strikeout rate (22.9% vs. 23.8%) and chase rate (36.3% vs. 32.1%) are not wildly out of line with last year, but he’s been popping the ball up much more often. Pop-ups and weak fly balls are easy outs. A .194 BABIP is absurdly low and won’t continue forever, but it’s not entirely undeserved either. Some launch angle data:

Sanchez already has more batted balls near the 90° line than last season, and he has 44 “hit under” balls among 169 balls in play, or 26.0%. Last year he had 76 “hit under” balls among 355 balls in play, or 21.4%. Gary’s 21.1% infield fly ball rate — that’s 21.1% of all fly balls that are infield pop-ups — is far above last year’s 10.8% rate and far above the 10.3% league average. Totally matches the eye test in my opinion. So many pop-ups. So many.

Gary did have some big moments in the first half. There was the walk-off homer against the Twins, and the go-ahead homer that had Ken Giles punching himself, and the game-tying homer against the Mariners. Believe it or not, Sanchez does have a 150 wRC+ in high-leverage spots and a 139 wRC+ with runners in scoring position this season. Even with the overall disappointment, Gary came through in some really big moments in the first half.

The pop-ups and weak fly balls are really dragging down Sanchez’s batting average and overall production. I don’t know if he’s changed his hitting mechanics, gotten too home run happy, or fouled himself up trying to improve his launch angle, but whatever it is, it’s something Gary and the Yankees have to fix and soon. He’s expected back from his groin injury for the start of the second half Friday. The sooner good Gary returns, the better.