There are only four home series left this season, folks. The Blue Jays are leaving town and now the Rays are coming in. This is a four-game series too, so the Yankees have a chance to pile up wins against a last place team. They’re 6-6 against Tampa Bay so far this season, including 4-2 at Yankee Stadium.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Rays hung on to beat the Orioles yesterday, snapping their three-game losing streak. They actually won six of ten games prior to that three-game skid. Tampa is 59-79 with a -29 run differential this season — they’re 28-47 in their last 75 games — which puts them firmly among the league’s cellar dwellers. They’re heading for their first top ten draft pick since taking Tim Beckham first overall in 2008. Good thing they didn’t take consensus No. 1 draft prospect Buster Posey that year, eh?
Offense & Defense
Including yesterday’s seven-run outburst, the Rays are averaging 4.24 runs per game with a team 99 wRC+. They’re so unhappy with their offense that they fired longtime hitting Derek Shelton earlier this week. Tampa’s only seriously injured position player is SS Matt Duffy (83 wRC+), who will have season-ending Achilles surgery in the near future. 3B Evan Longoria (127 wRC+) is day-to-day after taking a pitch to the hand earlier this week, though he was in the lineup at third base yesterday.
The top four spots of manager Kevin Cash’s lineup stay pretty consistent from day-to-day. Longoria bats third with 2B Logan Forsythe (125 wRC+) leading off and CF Kevin Kiermaier (99 wRC+) hitting second. 1B Brad Miller (115 wRC+) is the cleanup man. He has 26 home runs, you know. UTIL Nick Franklin (132 wRC+) has taken over at short since Duffy got hurt, and the rotating corner outfielders are OF Corey Dickerson (89 wRC+), OF Steven Souza Jr. (79 wRC+), and OF Mikie Mahtook (29 wRC+). Franklin played some outfield too.
DH Logan Morrison (97 wRC+) is the other regular and C Bobby Wilson (87 wRC+) has taken over as the regular catcher. C Luke Maile (80 wRC+) is the backup. C Curt Casali and IF Richie Shaffer are the only September call-ups for now. The Rays didn’t exactly load up the bench. Longoria and Kiermaier are by far Tampa’s best defensive players. Forsythe is solid at second and so is Souza in right. Wilson’s a fine catcher. Left field, shortstop, and first base are weak spots.
Update: The Rays signed veteran SS Alexei Ramirez (61 wRC+) earlier today, according to Marc Topkin. He was released by the Padres a few days ago. I assume Ramirez will be their regular shortstop the rest of the way following the Duffy injury. He’s certainly their best option defensively.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday (7:05pm ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (vs. NYY)
Unlike Masahiro Tanaka, Cobb was unable to successfully rehab an elbow injury, which forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery last May. The 28-year-old returned to the team’s rotation last week and held the Blue Jays to two runs in five innings while on a strict pitch count. He fanned seven, walked one, and got twice as many ground outs as fly outs. Cobb was really good from 2013-14 (2.82 ERA and 3.29 FIP), but that was two years and one elbow ligament ago. In his start last week Cobb averaged 91.4 mph with his sinker, 86.3 mph with his splitter, and 80.1 mph with his curveball. That’s down a mile or two an hour across the board from before the injury, though chances are he’s still building up arm strength.
Friday (7:05pm ET): RHP Michael Pineda (vs. TB) vs. LHP Blake Snell (vs. NYY)
The Rays are using a six-man rotation right now to control Snell’s innings and make life easy on Cobb following elbow reconstruction. The 23-year-old Snell has had a fine rookie season, pitching to a 3.39 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 15 starts and 74.1 innings. His strikeout (23.8%) and walk (12.7%) numbers are high, and there’s a disconnect between his ground ball rate (37.5%) and home run rate (0.48 HR/9). Something will have to give at some point. Not surprisingly, righties have had more success against him than lefties. Snell sits in the mid-90s with his heater, and his array of offspeed pitches includes a mid-80s changeup, a low-80s slider, and an upper-70s curveball. The Yankees have seen the young southpaw twice this season: one run in five innings in April, his MLB debut, and two runs in 5.1 innings in July.
Saturday (4:05pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. TB) vs. RHP Chris Archer (vs. NYY)
What a disappointing season for Archer. He finished fifth in the Cy Young voting last year and could have placed even higher, and rather than build on that success, Archer has a 4.06 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 29 starts and 175.1 innings. That’s not awful — heck, it’s better than every Yankees starter aside from Tanaka — but it’s certainly not what he or the Rays had in mind this season. Archer’s strikeout (28.4%), walk (8.2%), and grounder (47.3%) numbers are right where they were last year, but he’s been more homer prone (1.23 HR/9) and righties are having more success against him than ever before. The 27-year-old northpaw sits in the mid-90s with his heater and the upper-80s with his trademark slider. It’s nasty. One of the best sliders in baseball. It’s like a right-handed Andrew Miller slider. He also has an improved upper-80 changeup. The Yankees have faced Archer twice this season: four runs in eight innings in May, and five runs in six innings in August. The latter was Alex Rodriguez’s final game.
Sunday (1:05pm ET): RHP Luis Cessa (vs. TB) vs. RHP Matt Andriese (vs. NYY)
Andriese, 27, has a 4.58 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 106 innings split across 15 starts and ten relief appearances this season. His peripherals are generally strong (21.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, 44.4 GB%, 1.19 HR/9) and his platoon split is relatively small. As a starter Andriese uses a low-90s four-seamer and a mid-80s changeup as his two main pitches. He added an upper-80s cutter recently that has apparently been a real nice pitch for him. He’ll also throw a few low-80s curveballs per start, but at the end of the day, Andriese is a fastball/changeup/cutter pitcher. The Yankees saw him as a starter last month and scored six runs in five innings.
Bullpen Status
Like the Yankees, the Rays loaded up their bullpen as soon as rosters expanded on September 1st. They’re carrying a dozen relievers in addition to their six starters. Here is Cash’s relief crew:
Closer: RHP Alex Colome (2.05 ERA/3.26 FIP)
Setup: RHP Brad Boxberger (3.00/4.75), LHP Xavier Cedeno (3.70/2.64)
Middle: RHP Danny Farquhar (3.64/5.13), RHP Kevin Jepsen (5.48/5.88), LHP Enny Romero (5.53/4.48)
Long: RHP Erasmo Ramirez (3.73/4.64)
Extra: RHP Eddie Gamboa, RHP Ryan Garton, RHP Steve Geltz, LHP Justin Marks, RHP Chase Whitley
Ace Whitley! He’s all done rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and was called up Monday. Good for him. Hopefully he pitches this series, but only in a blowout win for the Yankees. Gamboa, another September call-up, is a knuckleballer. He joins R.A. Dickey and Steven Wright as the only knuckleballers in MLB at the moment. All three in the AL East. Figures.
Colome is firmly established as the closer and Cash likes to rotate his setup men. Boxberger and Cedeno get the majority of the setup work, but Erasmo and Farquhar and Jepsen will see high-leverage work on occasion too. Garton (29 pitches), Jepsen (12 pitches), Boxberger (eight pitches), Farquhar (13 pitches), and Colome (13 pitches) all pitched yesterday. Farquhar is the only one coming off back-to-back days.
Head on over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi’s relievers. Those guys have worked an awful lot the last few days, so even though the Yankees are carrying 12 relievers, the bullpen is a little worn down.
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