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Rosenthal: Cubs, Yu Darvish agree to six-year contract

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(Tim Bradbury/Getty)

4:50pm ET: Rosenthal says the Yankees never made Darvish an offer. They wanted to clear salary to get under the luxury tax threshold and haven’t been able to do it. At least not since the Chase Headley salary dump.

3:07pm ET: According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs and Yu Darvish have agreed to a six-year contract worth $126M. Incentives and whatnot can push the total value to $150M. Darvish will join Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood in Chicago’s rotation. The deal is on par with Johnny Cueto’s six-year, $130M contact. Makes sense to me.

The Yankees had been connected to Darvish throughout the offseason, though the luxury tax plan was an obstacle. To sign him, they either would’ve had to exceed the $197M luxury tax threshold, or trade someone to clear payroll. The Yankees have about $22M to spend under the threshold, but they’re setting $10M aside for midseason additions.

Even with Darvish off the board, there are still several quality starters available in free agency, namely Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn. As with Darvish, the Yankees would have to clear payroll space to sign one of those guys, realistically. The Yankees have been connected to trade candidates like Michael Fulmer and Patrick Corbin as well.

At the moment the Yankees have five starters (Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) for five rotation spots, plus some nice depth pieces. They don’t absolutely need another starter. But still, there is no such thing as too much pitching depth. Expect them to continue scouring the market. See you in the World Series, Yu.

The case for trading Brett Gardner to make room for Darvish

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(Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The other day, Steven wrote about the rationale of trading David Robertson to clear some salary room to fit Yu Darvish’s hypothetical contract under the $197 million luxury tax threshold. Today, I’m here to make a case for trading away another established veteran player with a +$10M salary: Brett Gardner.

We’ve talked about the Yankees’ commitment to stick to the current luxury tax plan all winter. As of this moment, the Yankees stand at $175 million for 2018, which gives them around $22 million of wiggle room. Trading away ~$10 million worth of of room will comfortably fit another big contract. It’s the ol’ subtract-to-add situation.

While Gardner is penciled in as a big part of the 2018 Yankees, he is not untouchable. Darvish can put the Yankee rotation in a solid spot for the next few years. This idea does not have my 100% endorsement, but there are reasons why it would make sense.

1. Gardner’s value. There are two sides here. First off, Gardner had one of his finest seasons in the majors in 2017, hitting .264/.350/.428 with 21 home runs, which is good for a 108 wRC+ and a 3.8 fWAR. Among outfielders with qualifying amount of plate appearances, Gardner ranks 16th in the majors in fWAR, which is pretty good. He is definitely a starter on any team. While the fielding metrics have not been as high on him as they used to be, he still rates as a good fielder and, of course, he brings speed on the bases.

While there are teams out there with OF needs, Gardner is currently a good enough player that he could go to a team with three spots all set and take one of the jobs. He’s also set to be paid $11 million in 2018, which is lower than what he would get in open market if he were a free agent.

What am I getting at? It’s that Gardner would be more than just a salary dump. He could net the Yanks something interesting in return while the Yankees clear $11 million in the payroll.

There are two things that limit his value: 1) his age, and 2) only one year left in his contract. If Gardner put up a season he did in 2017 when he was 27, Cashman’s phone would be buzzing quite a bit. Gardner is currently 34 and will turn 35 in August. Studies have shown that speedy guys tend to age more gracefully but as you have seen with Jacoby Ellsbury, it is not always a guarantee.

As you may know, 2018 is the last year of Gardener’s four-year, $52 million contract. There is a $12.5 million team option for 2019, by the way. Basically, whoever has him has a choice to keep Gardner for another season, which helps his overall value. While Gardner is a very good MLB player, teams will be wary of his age and for how long they can have him. At the same time … he is much more tradeable than Ellsbury.

2. It could clear the OF logjam. So, at this moment, the Yankees have four sure everyday guys in Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge and Gardner, and two bench guys in Ellsbury and Clint Frazier (don’t forget about Jabari Blash either). Depth is important and the Yankees have a lot of outfielders. Both of these can be true.

Let’s talk about the two bench guys here though. Ellsbury, with the decline he has shown since joining the Yankees, has become somewhat of an albatross and the team has not made it much of a secret they want to trade him away. At the same time … he’s not awful. He may be average at best, but he’s capable of good usage here and there.

Frazier, on the other hand, could be a guy who could use some exposure against big league pitching in 2018. When he makes contact, man, he can hit’em hard. Frazier had 31 base hits in the ML last year and 16 of them were for extra bases. He just needs to be more seasoned at the highest level. He’s a young talented outfielder who warrants patience. Giving him ample opportunity to experience growing pain in 2018 may pay off big time sooner than later.

(Stephen Brashear/Getty Images}

3.  One less OF or one less bullpen pitcher? Steven talked about how the Yankees bullpen has depth and can afford to subtract a piece for a overall greater good. I don’t disagree with him. However, bullpen pitchers can tend to be a bit more volatile. Uber-consistent relievers like Mariano Rivera are quite rare. In 2017, we saw Aroldis Chapman, one of the most sturdy closers in the recent history, get into some serious slumps that cost the team some games. Heck, even Tommy Kahnle had a bit of an unreliable stretch before the playoffs.

Because of the high bust rate of the relievers, it becomes hard to project how consistent the bullpen unit can be. Because the Yankees pitching is built to rely on late-inning arms, maybe it is not a bad idea to keep the best relievers for depth. Also, by having a loaded bullpen, the team will have an easier time limiting Darvish’s workload and keep him fresh.

At the same time, the Yankees do have a history of giving up an offensive piece to either acquire starting pitcher. Trading away Nick Johnson for Javier Vazquez back in 2003-04 offseason comes to mind. Sending Melky Cabrera to Braves to re-acquire Vazquez was also a thing. Both played as regulars for the Yankees prior to the deals, but Brian Cashman pulled the trigger to add another arm to the rotation.

What did Cabrera and Johnson have in common at the time? They were a bit superfluous to the team based on the position they played. Johnson was blocked by Jason Giambi and his long-term deal. Cabrera was traded away only a few weeks after the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson in a three-way deal. Cashman didn’t trade away players that had clear positional dominance in the roster – he chose to part with those who were a little extra at the position.

Which brings us to Gardner. As I said, he’s a clear starter for every ML team. However, the Yankees have a big OF depth and the team could always use more starting pitching. Because of his value and contract, he is very tradeable and it might make sense to make a sacrifice to add a bigger boon.

Losing Gardner would obviously put a dent in current offense – but at the same time, they can rotate Judge – Hicks – Stanton – Ellsbury – Frazier. The first three can do a lot of damage year-round and Ellsbury/Frazier and be sub’d in once in awhile to give them rest.

4. Yu Darvish is pretty good. The Yankees need more rotation depth, etc. Yup. Steven covered this in his post.

The case for trading David Robertson to make room for Yu Darvish

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Darvish (Harry How/Getty)

This offseason has been borderline insufferable. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani moving early, it’s been a slow trickle of small signings and few big moves. Even the rumors have been sparse at best.

But one persistent rumor in recent weeks has been the Yankees’ interest in Yu Darvish. After adding Stanton and re-signing CC Sabathia, the Yankees have around $22 million to work with in order to fill out their roster under the luxury tax. Darvish, as the best pitcher (sorry Jake Arrieta) on the market, should command an average annual salary north of $20 million, seemingly putting him out of their self-imposed price range.

It’s easy to say that the Yankees should ignore the luxury tax and aim for the home run signing or multiple signings in general. The luxury tax shouldn’t act as a salary cap and the team has enough revenue to offset yearly luxury tax bills, even the more punitive ones of the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Plus, with few teams active on the free agent market, there is an opportunity to swoop in an find real bargains that were unforeseen in November.

But the Yankees are operating with the luxury tax as their cutoff this year, so staying under $197 million is an imperative that would take them out of the Darvish sweepstakes. That is, unless they decide to shed salary. The most commonly thrown-out name that the Bombers would move to get under their cap is David Robertson. Robertson was arguably the Yanks’ best reliever down the stretch last year and will have a suitably big role in their pen this year.

So is it worth dealing a key reliever in order to sign a potential top-of-the-rotation starter? Below is the case for that very move:

1. Yankees have depth in the bullpen: Adding back Robertson was huge for New York last year. He allowed just four runs in 35 regular season innings before the trade and then came through with huge innings in the Wild Card Game and ALDS Game 5. The Yankees likely don’t make the ALCS without him.

But with the depth of the Yankees’ pen, Robertson may just be expendable. Aroldis Chapman-Dellin Betances-Tommy Kahnle-Chad Green-Adam Warren is still one of the best top five relief corps in the league. It’s certainly better than the Chapman-Betances-Warren-Tyler Clippard-Jonathan Holder top five the Yankees had in April last year. It stands to reason that Holder can handle lower leverage innings or one of the other shuttle relievers can emerge as the sixth man in the pen (Ben Heller is my personal fave there).

Robertson (Elsa/Getty)

2. They don’t have the same depth in the rotation: The argument against Darvish, in general, is that the Yankees have five starters, the same five starters that got them within a game of the World Series last year. That’s fair. But those five are all injury risks or question marks for next year. Even Luis Severino, the 2017 ace, faces some hurdles after exceeding his career-high innings total by more than 40 innings last year.

Beyond the top five, what do the Yankees have? Luis Cessa and his perfectly mediocre track record is likely the first up. After him, it’s a combination of prospects and Wade LeBlanc. Nothing inspiring, particularly when Cessa and co. will have to make plenty of starts in the average scenario.

Adding Darvish lessens the pressure on every other starter and allows the team to move slower with a Jordan Montgomery or Severino to keep them fresh late in the year. And adding another top-flight starter would allow the Yankees to shift 1-2 of their starters to the pen in October, mimicking what the Astros did in the 2017 but with a better bullpen to boot.

3. Darvish has a chance to be special in pinstripes: This can’t be understated. Despite two pitch-tipping marred World Series starts, Darvish has a lot of talent and could be a key positive on the biggest stage.

The 31-year-old starter isn’t too far removed from Tommy John surgery, but he’s been successful since coming back. His K-BB rate has remained right around his pre-TJ levels, though he’s given up more hits and home runs. After making adjustments to his pitch mix after his trade to Los Angeles, his strikeout rate spiked and his results improved.

His age is a concern, even though he fits the Yankees’ mold of tall framed pitchers who strike guys out. Signing a starter over age-30 to a long-term deal can end terribly (see: Burnett, A.J.) and we may not see 2013 Darvish again. But even post-surgery Darvish is a valuable piece who can help the team maximize its current window despite a potential tail-off towards the end of any contract.

4. Robertson can get a strong (but not elite) return: While you may see this as exchanging one strength for another and making the bullpen weaker, Robertson can get the Yankees something in return. With just one year left on his deal, D-Rob won’t elicit an Andrew Miller-esque return. But you’re still talking about one of the better relievers in the game with an end-of-game and postseason pedigree.

Perhaps the Yankees would target an infielder to fill one of their other holes in return. But it’s more likely they would be able to add to their stockpile of prospects while opening some room for a lesser free agent infielder.

The team obviously wants to unload Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract. It just doesn’t seem likely that will happen. Brett Gardner would be another option for a veteran to deal and trading him would open a spot for the Yankees’ glut of outfielders. But after multiple OFs have already moved this offseason and plenty remain on the free agent market, it’s tough to see what Gardner’s market would be.

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Shedding salary seems perverse for a team playing in the biggest market with ownership that isn’t crying poor like their crosstown rivals. But that’s where the Yankees are at right now if they want to add Darvish, or Arrieta for that matter. You’d hate to see Robertson leave yet again, but perhaps it may be worth it in this scenario.

Making sense of the latest Yu Darvish rumors

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(Tom Pennington/Getty)

Over the weekend the Yankees lost out on their most rumored trade target, as the Pirates shipped Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a package most seem to agree is pretty underwhelming. The Yankees were reportedly willing to trade Clint Frazier or Chance Adams for Cole, but not both. They made their very best prospects unavailable.

Aside from Cole, the pitcher most connected to the Yankees these last few weeks has been free agent righty Yu Darvish. Darvish confirmed his list is down to six teams and the Yankees are one of the six. And, naturally, as soon as the Cole trade went down, it was speculated the Yankees would move on and sign Darvish. That’s usually how it goes, right? The Yankees missed out on a player they wanted, so they’ll go after the next best thing.

There has been a lot — A LOT — of chatter about the Yankees and Darvish the last few days, and it is confusing as hell. It can be tough to tell what is legit and what it nonsense these days. Teams and agents both leak misinformation in an effort to create leverage, and fans eat it up. Let’s try to make sense of all this, shall we? Here’s what we know.

The Yankees may or may not have made an offer

On his radio show last Thursday, Michael Kay said the Yankees offered Darvish six years and around $160M, but added the offer was only on the table for 48 hours. That sounds … weird. This is the same Michael Kay who reported Aaron Judge would be named AL MVP, so take this with a big ol’ grain of salt.

Now, that said, Darvish eventually confirmed the Yankees did make him an offer. Eventually.

First Darvish denied getting an offer from the Yankees, then circled back and said he did, though the numbers (six years and $160M) were incorrect. And then, a few hours later, Bryan Hoch reported that no, the Yankees have not made Darvish an offer. Hmmm.

Yes, the Yankees and Darvish have spoken

Brian Cashman has indeed spoken to Joel Wolfe, Darvish’s agent. I know this because Cashman confirmed it during a WFAN appearance last week. (Also, Wolfe is Giancarlo Stanton’s agent, and he was at Stanton’s introductory press conference last month, so of course he spoke to Cashman at some point.)

Anyway, here’s what Cashman had to say about Darvish during the WFAN appearance. Bryan Hoch has a partial transcript:

“Do we recognize Yu Darvish as a unique talent and a premier starting pitcher available in this marketplace? The answer to that question is yes,” Cashman said during an in-studio appearance on WFAN. “Would we be, in the end, one of the last teams standing? I can’t answer on that. I have talked to Joel Wolfe, his agent. I can acknowledge that.”

…

“He’s obviously a tremendous pitcher,” Cashman said. “I can’t answer it directly. I would just say that we do have some flexibility. To create more flexibility, the higher the cost of the player … I would have to create more financial room so we do not trip up that luxury tax when the dust settles at the end of this year, unless ownership changes their mind on that.”

The Yankees are trying to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold, and according to our unofficial calculations, they have about $22M to spend. Realistically, that’s not enough to sign Darvish. The Yankees would have to fit Darvish’s contract under the luxury tax threshold and set aside money for midseason additions and call-ups, nevermind try to find an infielder.

They’re waiting for the price to drop

Well, duh. That’s what every team is doing right now. Only a handful of the top free agents have signed. It feels like all 30 teams are playing a game of chicken right now. Who’s going to snap first and sign a top tier free agent? That’s where the offseason is at. Every team is waiting (and waiting, and waiting, and waiting) for the prices to drop. It is organic collusion, as Ken Davidoff called it.

Anyway, soon after the Cole trade John Harper reported Cashman and the Yankees believe they can land Darvish on a “reasonable” contract. In this case, “reasonable” seems to be Jeff Samardzija money.

Two sources on Saturday night said Cashman’s interest in signing Darvish, which he essentially made public during a WFAN interview on Thursday, is very real, largely because he believes this stalled free-agent market gives the Yankees a chance to get the Japanese star pitcher at a “reasonable” price.

…

That might be Darvish’s asking price, but with teams throughout baseball determined to limit the length of long-term contracts, and the righthander coming off that poor World Series performance, the Yankees seem to think it’s possible they could get him for five years, $80-90 million.

I’ll take the over on five years and $90M or so, but in this free agent climate, who the hell knows. My guess is the other five teams Darvish is said to be considering would get very involved at five years and $90M-ish. If the price truly falls that far, a) holy crap, and b) it might come down to selling Darvish on the team and city.

* * *

Do the Yankees want to sign Darvish? Of course they do. Will they blow up the luxury tax plan to make it happen? Almost certainly not. If they were willing to do that, it probably would’ve happened already. I think two things are happening here:

  1. Cashman and Wolfe talked Darvish, and his camp floated seven years and $160M as contract parameters, which wouldn’t be outrageous for a pitcher of this caliber in a “normal” free agent market. Those numbers trickled down to Kay and, in the game of telephone, it got turned into an actual offer.
  2. The Yankees have not made Darvish a formal offer. (I’m sure they’ve talked money.) My hunch is Darvish tweeted the truth when he said the Yankees haven’t made an offer, which sent his agent into damage control mode, hence the correction tweet. Wolfe wants teams thinking the Yankees made an offer. It increases leverage.

Because of the luxury tax plan and the hoops the Yankees would have to jump through to fit Darvish under the threshold — they’d have to trade one or more of Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Adam Warren, and Dellin Betances to make it work financially, even at the discounted Samardzija rate (and trading those guys creates another set of problems) — I don’t see them signing him. It would be cool if they did sign Darvish. I’m just not counting on it.

Over the last month or so the Yankees have been connected primarily to Cole and Darvish, and for a while, it seemed like a Cole trade was inevitable. Eventually the Pirates would cave and take Clint Frazier and whoever else the Yankees deemed expendable. It didn’t happen. The Astros packaged some scraps and got him instead. And as soon as it appeared the Astros would get Cole, the focused immediately shifted to Darvish. That when all this stuff about offers and all that really picked up.

The Yankees pretty clearly want to add another starting pitcher. A good one at that. They’d have no trouble finding an affordable depth if that’s what they wanted. They want a difference-maker. That’s why they went after Cole and that’s why Cashman checked in on Darvish. Once you dig through all the nonsense, you end up in a familiar place: The Yankees checked in on Darvish because they check in on everyone, and they’re willing to do a deal at a price that doesn’t blow up the luxury tax plan. So, in that sense, nothing has changed.

Saturday Links: Darvish, Ellsbury, Extended Netting

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Darvish. (Tom Pennington/Getty)

In five weeks and six days, the Yankees will host the Tigers for their Grapefruit League opener in Tampa. Less than six weeks until real live baseball is taking place. I can’t wait. Here are some bits of news to check out in the meantime.

Yankees among six finalists for Darvish

According to Jeff Wilson, the Yankees are one of five teams free agent right-hander Yu Darvish is still considering. It’s the Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Rangers, and Twins. On Twitter, Darvish said he is also considering a sixth team, so that’s fun. He’s been setting the record straight on rumors all offseason. My guess is the Dodgers are that sixth team, but who knows. Maybe it’s a surprise team like the Mariners or Angels.

The Yankees have been connected to Darvish for a few weeks now — Darvish confirmed they’ve made an offer — but unless he takes a deep discount, they won’t be able to fit him under the $197M luxury tax threshold. They have about $22M to spend, though the team needs to set some money aside for midseason additions. Adding Darvish would mean a Brett Gardner or David Robertson trade to free up payroll space, and even that would mean no money for anything else, like an infielder. I don’t see this happening. The Yankees are interested in Darvish because he’s really good, but realistically, the math doesn’t work.

Yankees willing to eat half Ellsbury’s contract

The Yankees are willing to eat half the $68.5M remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract to facilitate a trade, reports Jon Heyman. That would turn Ellsbury into an $11.4167M a year player. Do you think Ellsbury would get three years and $34.25M as a free agent this offseason? I mean, maybe, but probably not. The market is moving slow enough as it is, and the younger and better Jay Bruce just signed for three years and $39M. So yeah.

It is no secret the Yankees would love to unload Ellsbury, and reportedly he might be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join certain teams. Eating half his remaining contract probably won’t cut it. The Yankees will have to eat more. But, this is only a first offer. Start by saying you’ll eat half, then adjust as necessary. Don’t start out with your best offer because who knows, some team actually might take Ellsbury at $11.4167M a year. I wouldn’t hold my breath though.

Extended netting details announced

Back in October the Yankees announced they will “significantly” extend the protective netting at Yankee Stadium — it only took a little girl being hospitalized after taking a Todd Frazier line drive to the head — and earlier this week, the team announced the extent of the new netting. From the press release:

Netting attached to the roofs of both dugouts will extend to a height of nine feet above each dugout during games. The bottom portions of these nets will be upwardly retractable by up to three feet, allowing fans the opportunity to fully interact with players during batting practice when the protective batting cage is being employed around the home plate area of the field. Prior to the start of the game, the nets will connect to the dugout roof, where they will remain in place throughout the game.

Beyond the dugout, netting will extend to Section 011 on the first-base side and Section 029 on the third-base side. The netting in these locations will rise to eight feet above the playing field (approximately 5.5 feet above the wall surrounding the field of play), and will remain in place from the start of batting practice through the end of the game. These sections of netting may be removed for soccer matches or other events held at Yankee Stadium.

Dyneema fiber Ultra Cross 1.2 mm-wide knotless netting — the same as was used for Yankee Stadium backstop netting in 2017 — will be utilized for all netting in the 2018 season. Additionally, all netting will be “field green” in color to minimize its visible impact for those in attendance and viewers watching on television.

Here’s part of the image the team sent showing the extended netting:

(Yankees)

The Yankees say the extended netting will be in place for the start of the regular season. Also, the netting has been extended at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa as well. That’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training. Good news. Extended netting has been long overdue around the league. Now, what about netting to protect fans in the bleachers from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge?

Hot Stove Links: Darvish, Cobb, Machado, Choi

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Lefty? (Tom Pennington/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers report in less than six weeks and there are a whole bunch of free agents who have to sign between now and then. Good free agents too. I wonder how many will be stuck looking for work in mid-March? We’ll see. Here’s the latest Yankees-related hot stove news.

Yankees still in on Darvish and Cobb

The Yankees remain interested in Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb, though they are unlikely to get seriously involved unless they can free up more payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold, reports Jon Heyman. We first heard about the team’s interest in Darvish and Cobb last month. Aside from Tyler Chatwood and CC Sabathia, every significant free agent starting pitcher remains unsigned at this point, with Spring Training less than six weeks away.

Clearly the Yankees want another starting pitcher, and not just a depth arm. They want an impact guy. Just look at their rumored targets: Darvish, Cobb, Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer, etc. That said, I don’t think they’re all that serious about the free agents — unless they get a sweetheart deal — because of the luxury tax plan. I think Plan A is dipping into the farm system and trading excess prospects for a younger, controllable starter. The Yankees already have five starters, so they can afford to sit back and let the market play out, and see if anything falls into their lap before Spring Training.

Yankees remain interested in Machado

Manny Machado’s name continues popping up in trade rumors, and according to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees remain interested in the Orioles third baseman. They have not yet “discussed names that have moved the needle for Baltimore,” however. The Yankees have a great big opening at third base, an opening Machado would fill more than capably, though the intra-division/Peter Angelos dynamic makes a trade very unlikely.

Maybe I’m wrong, but trading top prospects for one year of Machado doesn’t strike me as something the Yankees would do. Does it improve the 2018 Yankees? Without a doubt. I don’t think the Yankees want to pay twice for him, so to speak. They’d have to trade top prospects to get him, then give him a market rate contract to retain him after the season. I’ve seen the rumors that Machado wants to play in New York, but I think it would be foolish to expect him to take some kind of discount. I don’t see the Yankees trading prospects for Machado now when they could simply sign him in a year, even though that doesn’t help them in 2018.

Yankees made offer to Choi

According to Jee-Ho Yoo, the Yankees are one of several teams to make an offer to free agent first baseman Ji-Man Choi. I assume it was a minor league contract offer. Choi, 26, spent most of last season with Triple-A Scranton, though he did make a six-game cameo with the Yankees, going 4-for-15 (.267) with two homers. He hit .288/.373/.538 (149 wRC+) with 15 homers in 87 games with the RailRiders.

The Yankees are going to need a pretty good Triple-A first baseman this coming season. Greg Bird is locked into the big league job, but he’s had trouble staying healthy the last few years, and backup plan Chase Headley has been traded. Right now Tyler Austin is No. 2 on the first base depth chart and he’s had his own health/production issues in recent years. Mike Ford was taken in the Rule 5 Draft, leaving Ryan McBroom as No. 3 on the depth chart. Expect a Choi-esque signing before Spring Training.

Why the Yankees finding another starter isn’t a luxury but a necessity

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Gerrit Cole (Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)

For all intents and purposes, the Yankees have 1-2 holes left on their roster: Second and third base. It’s easy to see Gleyber Torres taking one of those spots by May 1, if not Opening Day, hence why it’s 1-2 holes and not a firm two. How they fill that last hole could be creative or it could be as simple as sticking Ronald Torreyes there until a younger, more talented option emerges.

Yet day after day, the Yankees are tied to starting pitchers. Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer, Patrick Corbin, etc. Heck, even Yu Darvish, a pitcher who appeared (or still appears) to be wildly outside the Yankees’ budget-conscious price range this offseason. Part of these constant rumors may be to drive up the price for fellow contenders, but I have a feeling it goes beyond just that.

While an optimist would say that the Yankees are already set in the rotation, I’m here to advise you otherwise. Finding another starter — whether in free agency, a trade or otherwise — is not a luxury, but a necessity.

Why do the Yankees need another starting pitcher? After all, they retained both potential free agent losses with Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia. They acquired Sonny Gray in part due to his remaining control years. Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery earned spots in the 2018 rotation with their superb 2017s.

But each of those five pitchers comes with significant question marks. Perpetual knee issues or partially torn UCLs for some and 2017 workloads well past their career-highs for others. If there’s an argument for how the 2018 Yankees are worse than the 2017 Yankees, it starts with things going wrong health-wise in the rotation. The scary thing is that rotation-based argument is easy to make.

Just like each of the pitchers in the Yankees’ rotation, there are flaws with each of the available pitchers. Gerrit Cole couldn’t avoid home runs in 2017 and has only one ace-like season, yet the Pirates are asking (as they should) for the moon in exchange. Michael Fulmer comes with more control, but perhaps even more in return and he did just crater in the 2017 second half. Free agents like Darvish and Arrieta are on the wrong side of 30 with big money demands.

The Yankees could very well determine that their best option for that sixth starter already lies in house. That’s valid. Watching what Chad Green’s done in 114 MLB innings makes you wonder how well he can do in a swingman role and perhaps 20 starts next year. Having a packed and reliable bullpen already makes a transition to the rotation possible for Green.

And the Yankees’ farm system is filled with intriguing arms that could be MLB ready. Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, Domingos German and Acevedo. One of those guys could break through and provide the starts that will be necessary beyond the Yanks’ top five guys.

Maybe the World Series would go better for Yu in pinstripes (Harry How/Getty)

The team doesn’t need to go out and spend big on Darvish or trade top-end prospects for Cole. That’s not what I am implying. In fact, the Opening Day and playoff rotations may already be set in the Bronx and going big on the trade or free agent market may be a misallocation of resources for a team that still has a need on the infield.

Making either one of those moves would put the Yankees more firmly ahead of Boston in the AL East arms race and give them another weapon to match Cleveland and Houston come playoff time. It would answer a lot of questions that exist about the team as currently constituted and would allow them to ease the workloads of Severino, Montgomery or anyone they deem necessary to protect.

Like with the Giancarlo Stanton deal, the free agent market may move in the Yankees’ favor. That’s much less likely with the trade market: The Tigers, Pirates and others can wait for a more desperate team in July or even 2019. But no free agent has received a deal of more than three years this offseason and an unforeseen bargain may be out there in February.

The solution to their pitching concerns may indeed exist within the organization already and that’s why it’s not worth panicking if they don’t make a move. But when the Yankees are tied to starting pitchers for the next few months, don’t scoff. There is a need on the roster and whether it can be filled in-house remains to be seen.