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Scouting the Trade Market: Fill-In Outfielders

August 14, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

For only the the fifth time in the last 12 games, Shane Robinson did not start for the Yankees last night. Robinson has played so much lately because Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier are on the disabled list, and because Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a hamstring injury. The Yankees are so short on outfielders at the moment that Neil Walker has started the last three games in right field.

There is still no firm timetable for Judge or Frazier to return from the disabled list, or for Stanton to resume playing the outfield. The Yankees tried to acquire another bat at the deadline but came up empty, though the need remains. Robinson’s playing too much and I’m not sure Walker in right field is viable long-term. The Yankees could use another outfielder, for sure.

Ideally, whoever the Yankees acquire will be comfortable slotting into a bench role once Judge returns. Being a bench player is not easy. We saw how much Walker struggled earlier this year when he was playing sparingly. As always, there are plenty of spare part bats on the August trade market, some of which are more attractive than others. Here are a few who could interest the Yankees while Judge and Frazier are sidelined.

John Andreoli, Mariners

2018 Batting Line: .279/.392/.390 (113 wRC+) with 19 steals in 21 attempts in Triple-A

Why Him? The players in this post are listed alphabetically, though I suppose it’s only right we start with the guy no one knows. Andreoli, 28, was a career minor leaguer with the Cubs before joining the Mariners as a minor league free agent. He has three games worth of MLB experience, all with Seattle this year, and over the last four years he’s posted a .370 OBP with lots of walks (13.8%) and lots of steals (121-for-156, 76%) in nearly 2,000 Triple-A plate appearances. There’s even a little pop in his bat.

Andreoli is a speed and defense outfielder who takes his walks, steals some bases, and will catch everything in all three outfield spots. Even with Judge and Gary Sanchez sidelined, the Yankees have some power to spare. A speedy outfielder who hits ninth and puts together long at-bats can fit the lineup well right now.

Why Not Him? I have no idea whether Andreoli is an upgrade over Robinson. He’s five years younger, I know that much, but Andreoli has no MLB track record. Robinson is another speed and defense outfielder, remember. They’re kinda the same player. You say tomato, I say tomahto. Trading for Andreoli might be at best a lateral move and potentially even a downgrade.

What Will It Cost? This can probably be a cash trade. The Yankees got fellow Quad-A types George Kontos and Gio Urshela in cash deals earlier this month.

Jose Bautista, Mets

2018 Batting Line: .195/.335/.368 (98 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? If nothing else, Bautista will still draw walks (16.7%) and get on base at a respectable clip while running into the occasional fastball. His platoon split is relatively small (102 wRC+ vs. 94 wRC+), so he doesn’t necessarily need to be platooned, plus Bautista can also play first and third bases, if necessary. He’s done both this year. He knows the AL East and he’s not going to be scared away by a postseason race.

Why Not Him? Even with last night’s homer, Bautista stopped hitting a few weeks ago. He’s at .161/.282/.259 (59 wRC+) in 131 plate appearances since July 1st, and the whole “he can play the four corner positions” thing doesn’t help much given his overall below-average defensive play. Right now, the only thing you can count on 37-year-old Jose Bautista to do is draw walks. Does that make him an upgrade over Robinson? Maybe! Enough to make it worth the hassle? Eh.

What Will It Cost? Probably another cash trade. Cash or a very fringe prospect. I can’t imagine any team would pay much for a declining player who didn’t sign until mid-April and has already been released once this year. That all said, are the Mets willing to trade with the Yankees? I’ll need to see it to believe it.

Carlos Gomez, Rays

2018 Batting Line: .218/.309/.354 (88 wRC+) with eight homers and nine steals

Why Him? Gomez remains a strong defender even at age 32, though he’s much better in the corners than in center at this point. There’s not much thump in his bat these days. He can still ambush a fastball and steal the occasional base, and that’s about it. His platoon split (99 wRC+ vs. 84 wRC+) is small, so it’s not like the Yankees would be bringing in a bona fide lefty masher. Gomez is better than Robinson though, has been his entire career, and he’s still young enough that there might be a good dead cat bounce in here.

Why Not Him? Fair or not, Gomez is the type who rubs some people the wrong way. The Yankees might not want to bring anyone in who could potentially disrupt the clubhouse, especially since we’re talking about a bit player who will get pushed into a bench role once Judge returns. Whatever little bit Gomez gives you on the field might be negated by him getting on everyone’s nerves.

What Will It Cost? A lower ranked prospect who might not crack his team’s top 30 list. Spare parts like Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda were traded for fringe top 30 prospects last August. That’s the benchmark.

Curtis Granderson, Blue Jays

2018 Batting Line: .234/.333/.414 (105 wRC+) with ten home runs

Why Him? Who doesn’t love the Grandyman? Granderson still takes his walks (12.1%) and will sock some dingers, plus he knows how to use the short porch. Few left-handed hitters have done it better since the current Yankee Stadium opened a decade ago. Granderson can still hold his own against high-end pitching …

… and his .240/.336/.429 (109 wRC+) batting line against righties is far better than anything Robinson will give you. Granderson has been used as a platoon bat for a few years now, so he’s comfortable with a part-time role, plus he’s a Grade-A dude who fits in any clubhouse. I suspect that, if the Yankees brought Granderson back, it’d be like David Robertson last year. Like he never left. He’d fit right in.

Why Not Him? Granderson is a strict platoon bat, so you can’t use him against lefties, and his defense has slipped with age. Also, his 29.5% strikeout rate is a career high, and the Yankees don’t really need to add more strikeouts to the lineup. Otherwise, Granderson is a rental on a bad team, and he’d be a clear upgrade over Robinson, even in a part-time role.

What Will It Cost? Last August the Mets traded Granderson for a Triple-A reliever (Jacob Rhame) who was a prospect, but not a very good one. No reason to think it’ll cost more to get him this time around.

Andrew McCutchen, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .255/.355/.413 (114 wRC+) with 13 home runs

Why Him? McCutchen’s days as an MVP candidate are over, but he remains an above-average hitter who draws walks (12.4%), doesn’t strike out excessively (21.7%), and hits lefties hard (124 wRC+). He is someone the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) could run out there on an everyday basis with no issues whatsoever. McCutchen can still hit and hit in the middle of a contending team’s lineup. Get him out of AT&T Park and his power numbers will increase for sure. He’s an obvious fit.

Why Not Him? First of all, the pro-rated portion of his $14.5M salary doesn’t fit under the $197M luxury tax threshold. The Yankees would have to get the Giants to eat some money to make it work, which means giving up more in return. Also, McCutchen’s defense is not very good at this point, even in right field, and how does he handle being bumped into a reserve role once Judge returns? He seems like a more realistic option for a long-term injury. As far as we know, Judge remains on track to return at some point soon. If he were going to miss the rest of the season, then McCutchen would fit.

What Will It Cost? McCutchen has real trade value, and the more money the Giants eat, the more they can demand in return. San Francisco gave up a good prospect (Bryan Reynolds) and a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) to get McCutchen in the offseason, though they acquired a full season of him. Now they’re giving up less than one-third of a season of him. I don’t think asking for a quality mid-range prospect would be unreasonable. A Domingo Acevedo type, with the Giants eating some money to make the luxury tax plan work.

Hunter Pence, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .213/.250/.287 (45 wRC+) with one home run

Why Him? Well, he’s definitely available. The Giants have bumped the obviously declining Pence into a fourth outfielder’s role, so he’ll be okay with that once Judge returns. As with McCutchen, the Giants would have to eat salary to make this work — Pence is making $18.5M this year — though he should come cheap anyway. Think along the lines of the Vernon Wells salary dump.

Why Not Him? Pence can’t hit — he owns a .150/.203/.183 (4 wRC+) line against lefties, so you can’t even platoon him — can’t play defense, and can’t really run anymore. He is definitely more name value than on-field value at this point. Maybe being back in a postseason race will re-energize Pence and the Yankees can catch lightning in a bottle. At this point though, it is entirely possible if not likely he is no better than Robinson.

What Will It Take? Cash or non-prospects. Even if the Giants eat money. There’s just not much here.

Danny Valencia, Orioles

2018 Batting Line: .263/.316/.408 (93 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? The Orioles designated Valencia for assignment over the weekend as part of the process of clearing roster space for younger players. He is a career southpaw masher and this year he owns a .303/.368/.505 (132 wRC+) line against lefties. Valencia can fake the four corner positions as well, so there is some versatility here. And considering he’s currently in DFA limbo, he should cost next to nothing to acquire. The Yankees might even be able to wait until he becomes a free agent, then sign him to the pro-rated portion of the league minimum.

Why Not Him? Valencia is useless against righties (64 wRC+) and he’s a terrible defender anywhere, so the versatility just means he can cost you runs at more positions. Also, Valencia has a reputation for being a bit of a headache in the clubhouse. There’s a reason he’s played for seven different teams since 2012 despite solid offensive numbers.

What Will It Take? Well, he’s in DFA limbo now, so nothing. Cash trade or wait until he gets released, then just sign him.

Scouting the Trade Market: First Basemen

July 7, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

On the off-chance that Ji-Man Choi is not a true-talent 216 wRC+ hitter, the Yankees are going to need a first baseman to solidify and stabilize both the lineup and the infield defense. Chris Carter played himself into a second DFA, Greg Bird may require surgery on his balky right ankle, and none of the team’s internal options seem befitting of a team with playoff aspirations.

All of that put together, assuming the Yankees do not continue to struggle into the waning days of July, should make them something of a buyer as the trade deadline approaches. The question then becomes a simple matter of who is available, and at what cost?

The simplest way to hazard a guess at the marketplace is to see what rentals are available (meaning who will be a free agent at season’s end). As per MLB Trade Rumors, that group is mildly enticing:

Yonder Alonso, Oakland A’s
Pedro Alvarez, Baltimore Orioles
Lucas Duda, New York Mets
Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox
Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
John Jaso, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adam Lind, Washington Nationals
Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox
Logan Morrison, Tampa Bay Rays
Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers
Mark Reynolds, Colorado Rockies
Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
Danny Valencia, Seattle Mariners

There are several names that can be ruled out immediately – Alvarez (trading within the division for a player reminiscent of Chris Carter), Lind (the Nationals aren’t selling), Moreland (the Red Sox aren’t selling), Morrison (trading within the division for someone that needlessly bashed Gary Sanchez), Reynolds (the Rockies aren’t selling), and Santana (the Indians aren’t sellers) are unlikely to pop-up on the Yankees radar for various reasons. Napoli is an unlikely target, as well, given that he may be the worst first baseman in the game this year, with a 77 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR. That leaves us with:

Yonder Alonso

Alonso has been one of the best stories of this half-season, serving as a standard bearer for the flyball revolution (or the juiced ball, whichever point of view you prefer). He is currently slashing .280/.375/.568 with 19 HR in 280 PA, good for a 150 wRC+. There have been some signs of regression, though, as Alonso hit .267/.353/.433 with just 3 HR (114 wRC+) and an elevated strikeout rate in June. He’s also struggled with some nagging injuries, which has been the case on an almost year-to-year basis.

I’d be a bit weary of Alonso, due to how inflated his numbers are by his incredible May. A team might be willing to pay for his line on the season, rolling the dice that he’s broken out after years of mediocrity, and the A’s are sure to shop him aggressively.

Lucas Duda

The Yankees have not made many deals with the Mets, but it does happen on occasion – and there could be a definite match here, as the teams trend in different directions. Duda finally seems to be healthy, and he’s batting .249/.359/.548 with 14 home runs and a 137 wRC+ in 231 PA. He has a 123 wRC+ for his career, and he posted a 134 wRC+ between 2014 and 2015, so this isn’t a complete outlier. Duda may not hit for average, but he takes plenty of walks (11.5% for his career) and hits for power (.211 ISO).

As a result of this, Duda is likely the best hitter of this group, when healthy. That caveat bears repeating, but he feels like the safest bet to be a middle of the order thumper.

Todd Frazier

Frazier is a solid defensive third-baseman, so this is cheating a bit – but he has played a few games at first this year, and 94 in his career. He’s batting .215/.332/.450 with 16 HR (107 wRC+), but that is weighed-down by his early struggles. Frazier raked in June, with 8 HR and a 144 wRC+ in 109 PA, and he has hit for power throughout his career. His month-to-month inconsistencies, however, have followed him for several years now.

That being said, Frazier is an interesting target, if only because of his positional versatility. If Bird manages to get healthy or another internal option rears his head, Frazier could shift across the diamond and relieve Headley of everyday duty. He’s a feast or famine type, but the famine isn’t as bad some other options.

Eric Hosmer

I struggled with including Hosmer here, as the Royals aren’t all that far from contention. He’s in the midst of a bounceback season (he’s always better in odd-numbered years), with a .313/.371/.484 slash line (126 wRC+) in 348 PA, and he’s been a key to the team’s turnaround. The Royals have several key players coming up on free agency this off-season, though, so they may be inclined to cash-in now, instead of chasing a wild card berth and little else.

Hosmer is the youngest option here, at 27-years-old, and might be the least obtainable player in this group. There’s probably a team out there that would swing a deal for him with an eye towards re-signing him, and that’s unlikely to be the Yankees.

John Jaso

Jaso is strictly a platoon player at this point, with only 69 PA against LHP since the beginning of 2015. He has done fairly well in that role, though, with a 119 wRC+ against righties in that stretch (108 in 2017). Jaso is hitting .250/.326/.459 with 7 HR (107 wRC+) in 193 PA on the season, spending time at first and in both outfield corners.

If I had to handicap this group, I would bet that Jaso is the most available and most easily attainable player. He’s also the most uninspiring, though, as someone that only partially fills the need at first.

Danny Valencia

I nearly left Valencia out due to his character issues, but that hasn’t necessarily dissuaded the Yankees lately. The 32-year-old journeyman (he has played for seven teams since the beginning of 2012) is batting .272/.335/.412 with 8 HR (104 wRC+) in 310 PA, as he adjusts to being a full-time first baseman for the first time in his career. Those numbers are a bit skewed, though – he had a 53 wRC+ in April, but a 122 wRC+ since. And that 122 wRC+ is essentially the happy medium between his 2015 and 2016 seasons.

Valencia offers some positional flexibility, having spent time at first, third, and both corner outfield spots. His defense isn’t particularly strong at any position, though. I do like Valencia’s bat, but I do worry that his bouncing around the majors and last year’s fight with Billy Butler may be indicative of a somewhat toxic presence.

Each and every one of these guys likely represents an upgrade over Choi, though I wouldn’t be terribly enthusiastic about bringing Jaso or Valencia on-board. Jaso would need to be leveraged as a platoon bat in order to extract the most value, and Choi’s production at Triple-A, age, and five years of team control may just merit being afforded that same opportunity. And, as much as I try to avoid harping on unquantifiable concerns, Valencia’s history is disconcerting for such a young team.

That leaves us with Alonso, Duda, Frazier, and Hosmer. I won’t hazard any trade proposals, as mine would almost certainly suck, but I would be most interested in Duda, Hosmer, Alonso, and Frazier, in that order. And, depending upon the cost, I think that all four are worth kicking the tires on.

Don’t overlook these under-the-radar Twins

October 4, 2010 by Mike 124 Comments

Like every other team in the postseason, the Twins are only going to go as far as their best players take them. Francisco Liriano needs to match the opposing team’s ace pitch-for-pitch, Joe Mauer needs to take advantage of whatever opportunities he’s given, and Jim Thome has to be that second offensive force. It’s imperative that those three do their part, but like everyone else the Twins are also going to need contributions from other players as well.

The Yankees certainly benefited from some unexpected contributions during last season’s title run, whether it be Damaso Marte’s shutdown relief work or Jerry Hairston spot starting in rightfield, so we know how important complimentary players can be. Here’s a few names that they shouldn’t overlook when preparing for the ALDS, because if they do, chances are they’ll regret it…

Delmon Young

The Twins’ lineup certainly features plenty of dangerous lefty bats, but the Yanks are going to be able to counter that somewhat with CC Sabathia in Game One and (more than likely) Andy Pettitte in Game Two. Minnesota hasn’t had too many righthanded power bats beyond the good, but not holy crap good Michael Cuddyer to help balance out their lineup over the years, but now they have that extra power righty in Young.

A former first overall pick who didn’t turn 25 until just three weeks ago, Young finally started to deliver on his immense promise this season, hitting .298/.333/.493 with career bests in wOBA (.352), homers (21), doubles (46), and strikeout rate (14.2%). He’s done a huge chunk of his damage against lefthanded pitchers, posting a .390 wOBA against them in 2010 and .352 for his career. Young will still expand the zone and have poor at-bats on occasion, but he’s growing into some more power and mistake pitches are leaving the yard more often than ever before. Sabathia and Pettitte are going to have to make sure they’re careful with Minnesota’s best righthanded threat.

Brian Fuentes

I’m sure at least some of you snickered when you read Fuentes’ name, because we all remember him being pretty shaky in the closer’s role over the last two seasons or so. Well, Fuentes isn’t a closer now, instead shifted to a role that’s much more suited to his skill set: lefty specialist. Fuentes crushed lefthanded batters this season, holding them to a .128/.222/.149 batting line and just a single extra base hit. Over the last three years, his dinosaur arm delivery limited lefties to a .196/.258/.234 line, and he’s surrendered just two (!!!) extra base hits to same-side batters since 2007 and one homerun since 2006.

Laugh at him for his failures as a closer or for Alex Rodriguez’s game-tying blast in last year’s ALCS, but the guy is shutdown lefthander that will create some matchup havoc late in games. Marcus Thames, and even … gulp … Austin Kearns are going to have to pull their weight against Fuentes this series.

Danny Valencia & J.J. Hardy

Young isn’t the only righthanded bat worth worrying about, the Twins new left side of the infield improved their team immensely in that area as well. Hardy, acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, brings what amounts to a league average bat from the shortstop position, an upgrade over what Orlando Cabrera gave them last season. The defensive improvement is considerable as well.

Valencia, the second half rookie sensation, looks like Alex Rodriguez compared to the dreck Minnesota has run out at the hot corner over the last few seasons. He brings a .351 wOBA from the right side, and like Young he murders lefthanded pitching (.424 wOBA this year). Compare that to Brendan Harris, who (mostly) started at third last year and was lucky to get his slugging percentage over .351, forget wOBA. Automatic outs like Harris, Nick Punto, and Carlos Gomez are nowhere to be found this year, so Yankee pitchers are going to have to be much more careful once they get past the heart of the order.