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James Paxton’s first year in pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

James Paxton, also known as The Big Maple, was the Yankees biggest acquisition following the 2018 campaign. The tall southpaw came over from the Mariners, where he grew into their number one starter as Felix Hernandez declined. Paxton has made a good early impression in camp, allowing just one run in his first three starts. Despite being the prize of the team’s offseason, there seemingly hasn’t been much hubbub about him since pitchers and catchers reported. And that’s not a bad thing, rather, it seems like he’s simply put his head down and gone to work. Still, the spotlight will be on the 30-year-old once the regular season begins, especially while Luis Severino is unavailable.

The de facto ace

The Yankees already had an ace —  Severino — before they acquired Paxton. Whether you want to call him and Severino 1A and 1B, or declare Paxton as a number two, one thing is for sure: he’s the ace as long as Severino’s out. Of course, an ace is just a moniker that gets thrown around. There was always going to be plenty of pressure on Paxton to perform like a top-shelf starter this season, but now with Severino’s return in question, The Big Maple’s margin for error has shrunk.

Masahiro Tanaka may have gotten the opening day nod in place of Severino, but that doesn’t minimize the importance of Paxton’s performance out of the gate. It sounds like the Yankees and Severino dodged a bullet, meaning that he could be back in mid-to-late April, but those games still matter. The rest of the rotation will need to pick up the slack and Paxton will be a major player. Leading a pitching staff is nothing new for Paxton, of course. He’s been that guy for Seattle in recent years. He should be up to the task.

Can he stay healthy?

Paxton has become quite familiar with the injured list during his major league career:

  1. 4/9/14 – 8/27/14: Strained left latissimus dorsi
  2. 5/29/15 – 9/13/15: Strained tendon in left middle finger
  3. 8/16/16 – 8/25/16: Left elbow contusion
  4. 5/5/17 – 5/31/17: Left forearm strain
  5. 8/11/17 – 9/15/17: Strained left pectoral muscle
  6. 7/13/18 – 7/30/18: Lower back inflammation
  7. 8/15/18 – 9/1/18: Left forearm contusion

It’s daunting to know that Paxton’s been on the shelf seven times since he reached the majors, but it’s worth noting that a couple of these injuries were merely bad luck. The elbow and forearm contusions were the result of line drives that struck him. The other maladies are a cause for concern, but on the bright side, only his forearm strain in May of 2017 is alarming. It’s been nearly two year since that injury, and fortunately, nothing else has been arm related.

We already know that the best predictor of future injury are past injuries. Unfortunately, that’s not good news for Paxton. Nonetheless, his workload has been trending in a positive direction over the past three seasons, culminating in a career high 160.1 innings last year. Chances are that the southpaw will hit the shelf at some point this season, but hopefully it’s just a short-term stint.

Pitching in a new home ballpark

I wrote about Paxton’s transition from Seattle to the Bronx about a month ago. His old home was known for it’s tilt toward pitchers, whereas his new digs is homer-friendly. Up until last season, Paxton did an excellent job preventing home runs. After running very low HR/9 numbers, he spiked to 1.29 in 2018. If that’s his true talent level with regard to home run prevention, that means another increase could be in store in pinstripes.

I’m not going to do a rewrite of my previous post here, but the point is that it will be something to watch for. Hopefully, it turns out that last year was more of a fluke driven by an inflated home run to fly ball ratio. If that’s the case, Paxton should pitch brilliantly. If not, it’s not like he’ll be useless. He still excels in many other ways that will allow him to succeed.

Will the Yankees leave him alone?

Last week, Sonny Gray made some waves about the Yankees’ pitching philosophy. In short: Gray was not pleased about the emphasis the team put on throwing breaking balls. He pretty much put the blame on the Yankees for his struggles during his tenure in the Bronx. Even though things didn’t work out with Gray, there’s a reason the Yankees have implemented an anti-fastball philosophy: it generally works. If Gray taught the team anything, it’s that a one size fits all approach probably doesn’t work, despite Gray’s underlying numbers making his breaking pitches look great.

We shouldn’t have to worry about the team making any drastic tweaks to Paxton’s style. He throws his fastball and cutter more than three-quarters of the time, for good reason. Not only has it proven very effective for him, but his curveball doesn’t look like something with significant potential. It’s not that it’s a bad pitch, but rather, that it doesn’t appear to have too much upside by throwing it more often. It’s in the third percentile, or near the very bottom, of the league in terms of spin rate.

The team will certainly look for ways to help Paxton improve, but there isn’t any reason to think it’ll be via the anti-fastball approach. It could be something to help with command, for instance.

Projections

PECOTA: 156 innings, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 DRA, 3.6 WARP

ZiPS: 147.1 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.6 WAR

Steamer: 172 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR

The consensus is that Paxton will be very good this year, which comes as no shock. Playing time is where these systems differ. Steamer is the closest to a full year’s work, but clearly, all systems expect some missed time.

Would you sign up for a mid-3 ERA like these systems project? Paxton authored a 3.76 ERA last season, though he’s also just a year removed from a 2.98 ERA. That’s more like the kind of number we’re all dreaming of. That’s more or less the difference between an ace and a solid number two or three starter. Any of those outcomes would be just fine, but having another frontline starter would be ideal (obviously).

Final Thoughts

I’m really excited to watch Paxton this year. I think in past years, I would have been a bit more worried about acquiring someone like him because of his injury history. Would it be great to have a staff of 200 innings workhorses? Of course. But baseball has changed, for better or worse, over the last decade or so and there simply aren’t a bunch of a 200 inning pitchers lying in wait anymore. Paxton has the ability to be one of the league’s best starters on a per inning basis, and he certainly appears capable of giving 150 stellar innings this year. If he can do that and pitch well in the postseason, no one will care if he doesn’t make 32 or 33 regular season starts.

Aaron Judge and trying to find room for improvement [2019 Season Preview]

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Kid, we all go to see Aaron Judge. (Presswire)

It’s fun to look back at where the Yankees and Aaron Judge were two years ago. The Yankees were, in their own words, a team in “transition,” which was their code word for rebuilding. It wasn’t a full blown teardown, but taking a step back and integrating young players into the roster is the essence of rebuilding. That’s what the Yankees were doing at the time. Introducing young players with a willingness to live through the growing pains.

Aaron Judge was not at the centerpiece of the transition — I’d say it was Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez in March 2017 — which was understandable following his .179/.263/.345 (62 wRC+) batting line with a 44.2% strikeout rate during his big league debut in late 2016. Judge had to compete for an Opening Day roster spot with Aaron Hicks, who himself had not yet established himself as a useful big leaguer.

Seven months later, Judge was the unanimous Rookie of the Year and the MVP runner-up following a truly historic rookie season. Going into last Spring Training, the question was: Can he do it again? It’s difficult to expect a player to do that again, but Judge came awfully close. His .278/.392/.528 (149 wRC+) batting line last year is both excellent and deceptively low because of his post-wrist injury skid.

On the day he suffered his wrist injury, Judge was hitting .285/.396/.548 (156 wRC+) and was one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Here are his offensive ranks among the 214 players with at least 400 plate appearances on the day he broke his wrist:

  • AVG: .285 (23rd)
  • OBP: .398 (6th)
  • SLG: .548 (8th)
  • wRC+: 156 (4th)
  • HR: 26 (5th)

Judge was again one of the game’s elite hitters before that errant Jake Junis fastball broke his wrist on July 26th. When he returned, he was obviously still compromised, as his .220/.333/.341 (87 wRC+) September batting line shows. Fortunately, Judge regained his strength and clocked some dingers in the postseason. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough for the Yankees to advance beyond the ALDS.

This spring Judge reported to camp as an established superstar. There are no “will he make the roster?” or “can he do it again?” questions. Judge has done it two years in a row now, he’s shown he’s much better pure hitter than his size and brute strength would lead you to believe, and he’s shown he can make adjustments. Add in strong right field defense and good baserunning, and you have a complete all-around player.

Also, Judge came to camp healthy this season. The wrist is good. He had shoulder surgery last offseason, remember, and the Yankees eased him into Grapefruit League games the same way they eased Sanchez into Grapefruit League games this spring. “Going into the season trying to stay healthy, (that) was a grind. But this year, I got a chance to work on things with my swing and my approach. That’s when it gets fun,” Judge said to James Wagner last month.

Even with a recent MVP like Giancarlo Stanton on roster, plus two Rookie of the Year candidates like Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres and prized offseason pickups like, uh, Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu, Judge remains at the center of the Yankees universe. He’s their best hitter and best player, and one of the best hitters and best players in the sport. His 2017 season was no fluke. Now let’s preview his 2019 season.

How can he get better?

“See, that’s kind of the thing that drives me, to be honest. Nobody really knows. I don’t even know,” said Judge to Coley Harvey when asked how good he can be. “People can speculate and say, ‘He’s like this guy, he’s like that guy.’ But that unknown is kind of what drives me. Like, how good can you be? How good could somebody be? Just having that constant motivation of the unknown is kind of what pushes me.”

As good as he is — and he is great — there is one obvious aspect of Judge’s game that can improve:. His strikeout rate. He struck out in 30.5% of his plate appearances (30.6% before the wrist injury) last year, the seventh highest rate in baseball, after striking out in 30.7% of his plate appearances as a rookie. We have nearly 1,200 big league plate appearances worth of evidence the last two years telling us Judge is a true talent 30% strikeout rate hitter.

Obviously the strikeouts have not prevented Judge from being an elite hitter. That’s because, when he does make contact, it is very loud contact. His career 54.9% hard contact rate and 94.8 mph average exit velocity put him in the 99th percentile in MLB. (The league averages are 34.1% and 87.4 mph, respectively.) His .368 BABIP the last two seasons is no fluke. Hit the ball as hard as Judge and you’re going to put up big numbers, strikeouts be damned.

But still, Judge cutting down on his strikeouts would be welcome, because more contact equals much more damage. As Reggie Jackson pointed out and Derek wrote last week, Judge is working on a no-stride two-strike approach this spring an effort to cut down on his strikeouts. It’s only Grapefruit League play, I know, but this home run was incredible. Judge hit the ball out to dead center with that no-stride swing (though not in a two-strike count).

If nothing else, that home run is a reminder Judge is so darn strong that he can cut down on his stride and still hit the ball out of the park. I’m not going to pretend Judge will be able to cut his strikeout rate down to, say, 15% or 18%. That’s unrealistic. He’s very tall and his strike zone is enormous, so strikeouts are going to come with the territory. That’s just the way it is.

My hope is, thanks to the no-stride approach or general experience or both, Judge can cut his strikeout rate down to 25% or so. I know a five percentage point drop doesn’t sound like much, but we’re talking 30 or so extra balls in play during the course of the 162-game season. Those 30 extra balls in play equal what, four or five more homers? Ten or eleven more hits? Maybe even more than that. It adds up.

Beyond the strikeouts, there isn’t a whole lot Judge can improve. I mean, there’s always room for improvement, but he’s already an elite hitter, he’s 20th among all players (and 12th among outfielders) with +23 Defensive Runs Saved the last two years, and he rates as an above-average baserunner as well. He’s only barely above-average on the bases (+1.4 BsR and +0.9 BRR), so I guess that’s something he can improve.

With Judge, cutting down on the strikeouts is the obvious top priority. Getting down into the 25% strikeout rate range could take him from elite hitter to generational hitter. The defense and baserunning are good as well. It’s silly to think there are things Judge can’t improve though. It’s just that those things are less obvious because he’s already so close to a total package. Fewer strikeouts, better baserunning, maybe more overall consistency. Things like that.

“I’ll still be trying to improve until I’m 40 years old and I’m still talking to you, you know?” Judge said to Harvey. “I’m still learning a lot of things about myself, things about my swing, things about my approach, things that will work, things that don’t. I still have a long way to go.”

What about an extension?

The Yankees started locking up their core players in recent weeks. Severino received a four-year extension and Hicks received a seven-year extension. I imagine impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are next on the extension priority list. I have to think Judge is not too far behind Didi and Dellin, even though he is still four years away from free agency and will make six figures in 2019.

There are few contract comparables for Judge at his service time level. Mike Trout’s six-year, $144M extension seems more appropriate than Matt Carpenter’s six-year, $52M extension, you know? Derek looked at a possible Judge extension two weeks ago and came up with seven years and $170M. To be honest, that seems high to me. I was thinking six years and $100M or so, with this structure:

  • 2019: $1M plus $2M signing bonus (pre-arbitration year)
  • 2020: $10M (arbitration year)
  • 2021: $15M (arbitration year)
  • 2022: $20M (arbitration year)
  • 2023: $25M (free agent year)
  • 2024: $25M (free agent year)
  • 2025: $30M club option with $2M buyout (free agent year)

That takes Judge through his age 32 season with an option for his age 33 season. The Yankees signed Hicks through his age 35 season, so maybe they’re willing to go that long with Judge, but Hicks is two years older than Judge and he was only a year away from free agency when he signed his deal. Judge doesn’t have the same leverage as Hicks. The Yankees could simply go year-to-year with Judge through his age 30 season. There’s less urgency on their part.

Maybe the six-year, $100M idea is dumb. Probably is. The larger point here is, now that the Yankees are in the business of locking up core players long-term, you can be sure Judge is among their top priorities. The thing is, signing him now raises his luxury tax number considerably. He’s going to make $700,000 or so this year as a pre-arbitration player. Give him six years and $100M and suddenly his luxury tax hit is $16.67M. That would cost the Yankees an extra $4.9M or so in luxury tax alone in 2019.

The Yankees could, however, sign Judge to an extension that begins next season without changing his 2019 luxury tax number. They did not do that with Hicks. They ate the extra luxury tax hit this year, though that was only an extra $4M. In Judge’s case, we’re talking an extra $15M or (likely) more against luxury tax payroll. If the two sides agree to an extension before Opening Day, I would bet the farm on it kicking in next year, not this year.

At this point, a Judge extension feels inevitable. The only question is whether they get it done before Opening Day or wait until next offseason, when the price is likely to increase. The sooner you sign the player, the larger the discount. That’s how these deals work. Either way, the Yankees will enjoy Judge’s last dirt cheap pre-arbitration year. Either they wait on the extension, or they sign him to an extension that begins next year.

What about the captaincy?

Fun fact: Derek Jeter was not named captain until 2003. That was four World Series championships, six full seasons, and one ten-year contract into his career. I get why the captain thing is mentioned with Judge. He’s a great player and he represents the Yankees well on and off the field, plus he’s already seen as a leader in the clubhouse, but I think we are a very long way from the Yankees naming a new captain. This is a topic for another time. Not 2019.

“He’s handled it well,” CC Sabathia said to Harvey. “Just the whole thing — the scope of being in New York, being a younger guy, being recognizable, easy access for everything. And he does a good job of being prepared to play every day. That’s hard to do in New York. (He’s) a prime candidate to be the next captain.”

* * *

At this point two years ago Judge was an extremely strikeout prone prospect who didn’t look all that ready to handle Major League pitching. Now, going into 2019, he is on the short list of the best players in baseball, and he’s the best player the Yankees have had since peak Robinson Cano. Maybe even since peak Alex Rodriguez. A mammoth extension is coming at some point, maybe even the captaincy as well.

For now, the goal for Judge this season is stay healthy, cut down on the strikeouts, and gain overall consistency with his game. Judge will tell you the goal is winning the World Series, and it is, but he is only one man. Winning the World Series is a team accomplishment and Judge has more than pulled his weight the last two seasons. He’s established himself as a true franchise player and he’s on the path to becoming an all-time great Yankee.

“His competition, for me, is in the monuments. His competition, for me, is the history of the Yankees,” Reggie Jackson said to Harvey. “If you look at some of the things he has done, he compares to (Babe) Ruth and (Lou) Gehrig. He’s put up crazy numbers.”

The Second Half Rotation Addition [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

For the fifth time in the last five seasons, the Yankees lost a member of their starting rotation to Tommy John surgery last year. Jordan Montgomery, who exited his May 1st start with elbow tightness, joined Michael Pineda (2017), Nathan Eovaldi (2016), Chase Whitley (2015), and Ivan Nova (2014). That’s some rotten elbow luck.

Prior to his injury Montgomery made six starts and pitched to a 3.62 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 27.1 innings. His strikeout rate (22.2% to 19.8%) dropped and his walk rate (7.9% to 10.3%) increased from his rookie year, though it was only 27.1 innings, so it’s tough to tell what was noise and what is meaningful. The curse of small sample sizes.

Montgomery, 26, he had his surgery on June 7th. With the exception of one minor little setback over the winter — “Just general soreness. I feel like I’m just hypersensitive to everything in my elbow right now,” he said to Coley Harvey last month — his Tommy John surgery rehab is on schedule. He’s due to return later this summer.

The prospect of a healthy Montgomery returning to give the Yankees a midseason lift is exciting. He was solid during his rookie year, occasionally spectacular, and there’s never such a thing as too much rotation depth. Another warm body to give the regular starters a little breather down the stretch would be welcome. Let’s preview Montgomery’s partial season.

When will he return, exactly?

The plan is sometime after the All-Star break. Montgomery started his throwing program a few weeks ago — he was making 50 throws at 90 feet when Spring Training opened — and we haven’t heard any updates recently, though that’s not unusual. Last month Montgomery told Pete Caldera he would throw in the bullpen sometime this month, and rejoin the Yankees in mid-July. “I have my sights set on that,” he said.

Returning to the mound sometime this month does not mean Montgomery will enter Spring Training mode. Tommy John surgery rehab includes several weeks of mound work before game action. The first few weeks are all fastballs too. It’ll be a few weeks until breaking balls and changeups are introduced. Montgomery starting mound work this month puts him in track to see game action sometime in May.

Minor league rehab stints for position players are 20 days maximum. They’re 30 days maximum for pitchers, but, if a pitcher is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, teams can request another 30 days and MLB always grants it. Bet on that happening with Montgomery. The Yankees will want him to get as much game action as possible. Remember, the goal is not only to get stretched out to 100 pitches. Montgomery has to get his mechanics back in place and regain feel for his pitches. I’d consider a return sooner than mid-July to be pretty aggressive.

“I’ve got four more months to get as strong as I can and try to work on anything I want to. My mechanics, clean those out, get my legs stronger,” Montgomery said to Harvey last month. “Just to get in better shape and come back a whole new pitcher is the plan … Hopefully in four months, right when I’m done with my rehab starts, then I’ll be back (with the Yankees).”

What happens when he comes back?

Worry about it when the time comes. Seriously. There’s no point in wondering where Montgomery will slot into the rotation when he returns when we’re still (at least) four months away from that happening. It’s too far away and lots can and will change between now and then. If the rotation is healthy and productive, send Montgomery to Triple-A. If there are injuries and an open spot, stick him in the rotation. That’s it. This is the epitome of a “figure it out when the time comes” situation. It’s a boring answer, I know, but it is the only possible answer right now.

Will he be the same Montgomery?

There have been many studies examining performance after Tommy John surgery. The results of those studies often conflict, and the end result is a great big shrug emoji. Some guys return better than ever (because they were pitching with a damaged elbow so long). Some guys return same as always (because the elbow ligament just snapped one day). Some guys never get back to where they were (because they lose a little stuff or command with the new ligament).

I will say this much: Montgomery can’t really afford to lose any stuff or command. He’s never been a big velocity guy (91.9 mph average fastball in his MLB career), so he needs sharp secondary pitches and good control to be effective. Less anything — less velocity, less break, less control — would negatively impact Montgomery more than it would, say, Michael Pineda, who had stuff to spare. Montgomery’s margin for error isn’t very big. Reducing it any further would be bad news.

Chances are Montgomery will return from Tommy John surgery fine and dandy because most pitchers return from Tommy John surgery and go back to being themselves. Some guys, like Matt Moore, are never the same and that’s always a risk. The odds are in Montgomery’s favor though. An immediate return to No. 4 starter level would be wonderful. If Montgomery doesn’t get all the way back there until 2020, that’s okay too.

* * *

I can already hear Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, and everyone else talking about Montgomery’s return being like a trade deadline pickup. Get ready for it. It’s coming. My hot take for the day is Montgomery is probably going to end up making more minor league starts than Major League starts this season, partly because he still has a long rehab stint ahead of him, and also because he’s not one of the team’s five best starters when everyone’s healthy. Will everyone be healthy? Probably not, but I hope so.

Whatever Montgomery gives the Yankees this season gravy. That’s how they have to look at it. I know it’s easy to dream on Montgomery returning in mid-July and being the knight in shining armor who saves the rotation, but that’s probably not realistic, nor is it fair. Expecting a pitcher coming off a major arm surgery to have an immediate impact is no way for a contender to build a rotation. Montgomery’s full return to form is likely to happen in 2020. Anything he gives the Yankees in 2019 is a bonus.

The New Righty Strikeout Specialist [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

Last season the Yankees rostered one of the best and deepest bullpens in baseball, especially after acquiring Zack Britton at the trade deadline. At least one metric says it was the best bullpen in baseball history. They could trot out power arm after power arm after power arm. The Yankees clearly prioritize a deep and powerful bullpen, and they invested heavily in their relief crew this past offseason.

Two weeks after re-signing Britton to what amounts to a two-year contract with a one-year player option and a two-year club option, the Yankees signed native New Yorker Adam Ottavino to a straight three-year contract. The Manhattan-born and Brooklyn-raised right-hander will make $9M annually and essentially replace David Robertson as Aaron Boone’s right-handed strikeout specialist.

“When he called me two nights ago and told me, he had the sound of happiness in his voice I haven’t heard in a very long time. He could not possibly be happier,” Ottavino’s father said after the signing. “I’m happy whenever anybody gets what they want, and he really got what he wanted. Playing for the Yankees was worth an awful lot to him. At the end, playing for the Yankees was very important to him.”

Ottavino has generated headlines the last two offseasons and for different reasons. Last offseason he rebuilt himself in a vacant Harlem storefront. He immersed himself in analytics following a miserable 2017 season (5.06 ERA and 5.16 FIP), and the result was a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) with 36.6% strikeouts in 77.2 innings last year. Then, this past winter, Ottavino said he would strike out Babe Ruth every time, which was a thing that made the rounds. That has since blown over (I think?).

I’m very much looking forward to what an open-minded player like Ottavino can do with an analytically-inclined organization like the Yankees. Maybe he can be even better than last season! Or maybe he just maintains that level of performance as he gets deeper into his 30s. The stathead native New Yorker hooking up with the Yankees is a match made in baseball heaven. Let’s preview Ottavino’s season.

What’s Ottavino feature?

Thanks to his cartoonish slider, Ottavino is one of the most GIF-able pitchers in baseball. I suppose this is where I should embed the obligatory slider GIF, so let’s get this out of the way:

Let’s try that another way. This is where Ottavino’s slider starts …

… and this is where it ends:

Spoiler: Ottavino is going to throw a slider like that at some point this season, Gary Sanchez won’t be able to block it, and Yankees fans will melt the hell down. Take it to the bank. Can’t predict baseball? Oh no, this is as predictable as it gets.

Anyway, Ottavino is much more than a video game slider. He works in the mid-90s with a comeback two-seamer and also throws a cutter that is effectively a shorter version of his slider. Ottavino has that big-breaking slider he sweeps away from righties and also a cutter with less break he can use closer to the zone. Here are some 2018 numbers on Ottavino’s stuff (MLB averages in parenthesis):

% Thrown Velocity Spin Rate Whiffs per Swing
Slider 46.8% 81.4 mph (84.4 mph) 2,787 rpm (2,397 rpm) 37.2% (35.5%)
Two-Seamer 41.9% 93.8 mph (91.7 mph) 2,288 rpm (2,125 rpm) 24.5% (16.0%)
Cutter 9.8% 87.1 mph (88.7 mph) 2,605 rpm (2,345 rpm) 48.1% (25.2%)

I think it’s pretty interesting Ottavino has above-average fastball velocity but below-average slider velocity. We’re talking a 12.4 mph separation between the two pitches, on average. That is enormous. The league average separation between all fastballs (not just two-seamers) and sliders is 8.4 mph. Ottavino fastball-slider separation is roughly 50% larger than the league average. That absolutely contributes to his effectiveness. He really changes speeds.

Also, Ottavino mentioned a few weeks ago that he is excited to get away from Coors Field, but not because of all the hits and home runs. He’s looking forward to pitching at sea level full-time so the movement on his pitches is consistent. Pitches do not move as much at altitude the same way they do at sea level. I ran the numbers a few weeks ago and the difference is noticeable. We’re talking 3-4 inches of break on Ottavino’s pitches in some cases.

Ottavino will give out some walks (11.7% last year) and I can’t help but wonder how much the constant altitude changes contributed to that. Imagine getting certain movement on your pitches at home, then going out on the road and getting more movement on those same pitches (or vice versa), and doing it over and over again all season. Can’t be fun. Can’t be easy. Ottavino doesn’t have to worry about that anymore now.

For all intents and purposes, Ottavino is a two-seamer/slider pitcher with a show-me cutter. He recently said he worked on developing a new pitch over the winter without saying what it is (splitter?), though he hasn’t pitched enough in televised Grapefruit League games for us to see a potential new pitch in action, if he’s even thrown it. But yeah, it’s a heavy two-seamer and a soft slider, both with a ton of movement. Ottavino’s fun.

What will his role be?

If nothing else, the Yankees are believers in having a set Eighth Inning Guy™. Aroldis Chapman is going to close, we know that much, and Dellin Betances will undoubtedly begin the year as Chapman’s primary setup man after the season he had last year. That leaves Ottavino, Britton, and Chad Green for the sixth and seventh innings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them lock in as the set Seventh Inning Guy™.

Ottavino did a little of everything during his time with the Rockies. Last season he typically pitched the eighth inning ahead of closer Wade Davis. He’s closed some in the past, he’s pitched in middle relief, he’s done it all. There isn’t a role he is unfamiliar with, which is good. Perhaps that means Boone will be flexible with him and use him as a true fireman in different spots rather than lock him into one inning.

“We have some guys who have a little more strength versus left-handed hitters, even though they’re right-handed pitchers, like Chad Green and Dellin Betances,” Ottavino said a few weeks ago. “I’ve been pretty tough on righties in my career, so I expect to get a lot of righty-on-righty matchups given our bullpen depth.”

As you’d expect given that slider, Ottavino was indeed more effective against righties than lefties last season. That isn’t to say he was bad against lefties. Not at all. They hit .174/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) against him with a 32.4% strikeout rate. It’s just that Ottavino held righties to a .138/.231/.236 (.215 wOBA) batting line with a 39.4% strikeout rate. He was outstanding against righties and he didn’t need to be sheltered from lefties either.

The perfect world scenario would be using Ottavino as the top right-handed matchup guy. Mookie Betts at the plate in a big spot in the sixth inning? J.D. Martinez in the seventh? Tommy Pham or Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the fifth? With Betances locked into the eighth inning for the time being, Ottavino is best equipped for those situations. The pure stuff is enough to overwhelm any right-handed batter. Matching up against top righty bats rather than being married to one set inning seems like the best way to use Ottavino.

Bullpen roles tend to develop organically as the season progresses — who had Betances being the team’s no-doubt Eighth Inning Guy™ at this time last year? — and my guess is Ottavino will be in that seventh inning mix with Britton. Perhaps they’ll share the role, with Ottavino facing tough righties and Britton facing tough lefties as necessary. That’s probably easiest. Of course, there will also be days he’s needed in the eighth inning, or the fifth. That’s baseball.

* * *

Replacing Robertson with Ottavino is very similar to replacing Robertson with Andrew Miller. In both instances the Yankees let Robertson, a very effective homegrown reliever and a known quantity, leave as a free agent so they could replace him with a cheaper player (in terms of annual salary) with a much shorter track record, but also someone who had a chance to be just as good as Robertson, if not better. Same idea both times.

Miller had one elite season under his belt when the Yankees signed him and the same applies to Ottavino now. Trading Miller for prospects in year two of his four-year contract was definitely not part of the plan, and boy, if the Yankees have to trade Ottavino for prospects at some point, it would mean something really went wrong. The logic is the similar though, and the Miller/Robertson move worked out pretty well. A repeat with Ottavino would be splendid.

The Polarizing Backstop Poised for a Rebound [2019 Season Preview]

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Expect much more of this. (Getty)

The Yankees are the most scrutinized team in baseball and, as such, always need a lightning rod. Gary Sanchez has taken the baton from Alex Rodriguez to become the team’s newest polarizing figure. There is no moderation with Gary Sanchez: fans either love him or love to hate him. It’s not difficult to see why, as the Yankee backstop has been at the center of many key moments of the current resurgence in the Bronx.  Just consider a sample of prominent storylines involving the Kraken since the beginning of 2017:

  • He was benched in early August of 2017 by Yankee skipper Joe Girardi, who argued that Gary needed to “improve his defense”;
  • A few weeks later, he participated in a scuffle with the Detroit Tigers, landing what most observers considered a “cheap shot” or “sucker punch” on superstar Miguel Cabrera;
  • That October, he was widely-panned and blamed for the Yanks’ ALCS Game 2 loss to the Houston Astros for dropping a throw home in the 9th inning;
  • Two games later, his double in the 8th inning capped off a memorable Yankee comeback to tie the series and sent the Yankee Stadium crowd into a thunderous frenzy;
  • Girardi’s treatment of Sanchez played a major role in the Yanks’ decision to let him go following the 2017 season and an important role in their decision to hire Aaron Boone;
  • During the Yankees early-season run of dominance last year, he hit a walk-off, three-run home run against Minnesota and delivered another three-run, go-ahead 9th inning homer off Houston closer Ken Giles to secure a particularly delicious win;
  • He had a miserable game in Tampa featuring both atrocious defense and lack of appropriate hustle, all while re-injuring himself;
  • He was party to one of the worst defensive displays in recent Yankee memory during a skid in September against the Oakland A’s; and, finally,
  • He hit two towering home runs in Game 2 of the ALDS, playing a major role in the Yanks’ sole victory in the series.

These specific moments were more than just talk radio fodder: they either validated or challenged fans’ preconceived notions of the slugger, building on a history of accusations of laziness and complacency that have dogged him since he signed with the Yankees at age 16—though it’s impossible to overlook the implicit bias on display. Fans love to criticize his defense (more on that in a bit) and a non-insignificant number of fans proudly claim that Austin Romine is a better option.

The Yankees organization itself, by contrast, loves Sanchez. “It would be hard not to have Gary Sanchez as our catcher”, Brian Cashman said last offseason. “He’s certainly someone that we’ve invested in and believe and expect to be a part of this place moving forward.”

They’ve walked the walk, too, sticking with him last postseason against Oakland and Boston last year on top of repeatedly offering their support for their controversial catcher. In other words, Gary Sanchez, love him or hate him, is the Yankee catcher now and for the future.

It’s no secret that 2018 was a lost campaign for Gary, so let’s look back at what happened before looking ahead.

What Happened in 2018?

Time to play a quick game called “which stat line belonged to Gary Sanchez last year”.

A: .232/.304/.372 (84 wRC+), .296 wOBA, 8.0% BB%, 23.5 K%, .140 ISO and .284 BABIP

B: .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+), .304 wOBA, 12.3 BB%, 25.1% K%, .220 ISO and .197 BABIP

Sanchez, of course, was B—but A was the cumulative line for catchers across the league. The point here is not to argue that Gary was Actually Good in 2018 (he flatly was not) but to illustrate a point that often gets lost in baseball: watching one team over and over again obscures the bigger picture. (More on this in a bit.) Gary was, in other words, a league average offensive catcher last year—albeit one with above-average power and patience and an extremely low batting average on balls in play. In fact, our very own Katie Sharp presented convincing evidence over at The Athletic (subs. req’d) that suggested that Gary was atypically unlucky on balls he hit hard last year. But again: Gary is not supposed to be an average player at a weak position. He was extremely disappointing in 2018; in all likelihood, he was the most disappointing player in baseball.

On the defensive end, Gary again struggled in the most visible way: passed balls. His 18 led the league by a wide margin even with a reduced workload due to injury, and passed balls are really ugly. That’s why he has a reputation for being a sub-par defender. But the problem with narratives are that they so often paint an incomplete picture—and that’s the case for Gary and his defense. A closer look reveals that Gary is actually a competent, above-average defender. Consider his rankings in other defensive metrics, all courtesy of Baseball Savant/Statcast or Statcorner:

  • Pop Time: 1.94 seconds (tied for 3rd)
  • Arm Strength: 86.8 mph (4th)
  • Exchange: 0.76 seconds (tied for 14th)
  • Framing/RAA: 3.3 (18th out of 126 catchers with a sample of at least 2,000 pitches)

This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that Gary is a defensive liability, showing that he is a plus defender behind the dish when you factor in his ability to limit stolen bases and frame pitches. This was true even last year, despite his propensity for passed balls. Moreover, Marc Carig reported at The Athletic (subs. req’d) that the Yankees view Gary’s preparation and ability to digest analytics and advanced game plans from the front office as unique—and that’s a skillset the analytically-oriented Yankees understandably prize.

Last year was certainly a step back for Sanchez, as it was a far cry from his dominant 2017 campaign in which he was worth 4 wins or his stellar 2016 debut in which he racked up 3 wins in two short months. We know he can be better because we’ve seen it, but even still: he was an average player at a weak position in the league, and that was all while battling injury.

The Bigger Picture

Sanchez only played in 89 games last year, so to truly project what he’ll do in 2019, it’s critical to zoom out and consider the bigger picture—both relative to the rest of the league and to his past performance. As I mentioned earlier, baseball is a sport where fans typically watch their preferred team and few other teams. That’s not bad necessarily (it is one of the many reasons I love the sport) but it does have a few pernicious analytical effects: it exacerbates the flaws of our own team at the expense of others by limiting our sense of perspective.

That’s true especially true when it comes to Gary. To gain a better appreciation of Gary’s overall talent and production for the Yankees, it’s helpful to take a look at his offensive figures relative to other catchers league-wide. Since the beginning of 2016, 32 Major Leaguers have come to the plate 750 times or more with at least 75 percent of those games behind the plate. Gary’s numbers are below, with rankings in parentheses:

  • Batting Average: .252 (13th)
  • On Base Percentage: .333 (11th)
  • Slugging Percentage: .516 (1st)
  • On Base Plus Slugging: .849 (1st, next closest is Wilson Ramos at .826)
  • Walks: 110 (11th)
  • Home Runs: 71 (3rd overall, behind Yasmani Grandal (73) and Salvador Perez (76), each of whom have at least 300 more plate appearances)
  • RBI: 188 (6th)
  • Doubles: 49 (14th)

The data make it clear that Gary is one of the game’s finest catchers—and clearly the most powerful. Even when accounting for his bad year in 2018, Gary ranks near the top of the league in every relevant offensive category for catchers. He has been one of the most productive catchers in the sport since he entered the league in late 2016, and it’s worth remembering that his counting stats are limited by injury and the fact that he played only two months in 2016. It’s simply dishonest to pretend Gary is anything but one of baseball’s most talented and productive catchers.

What to Expect

Count me among Gary’s believers. I fully expect him to return to form in 2019, providing the Yankees with the superior production we expected in 2018. For what they’re worth, ZiPS projects .246/.323/.499 (120 wRC+) out of Gary, and PECOTA similarly projects .254/.332/.473 (113 DRC+). These numbers reflect the fact his underlying peripherals (his batted ball profile, power and longer-term production) remain strong and that his true talent level is far higher than what we saw in 2018.

Development is not linear—as Robinson Cano’s 2008 demonstrates—and Gary’s 2018 was injury-riddled to boot. When fully healthy, Gary has proven that he is one of baseball’s most dominant offensive backstops, and the advanced metrics prove that he is above-average defensively, too. The Yankees absolutely love him (and have since he was 16) and have stood by him through thick and thin. That means that we should be confident that Gary will be Gary once more in 2019, reminding Yankee fans why we are all so fortunate to root for a team with him behind the dish.

Fatigue, expectations and the real Luis Severino [2019 Season Preview]

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(Getty Images)

For the last two seasons, the Yankees have had one of the best starting pitchers in baseball with Luis Severino. Shaking off the ineffectiveness of his first full-time go as a starter in 2016, Sevy has been an All-Star and received Cy Young votes in consecutive seasons, something no Yankees starter has done since 2009-11 CC Sabathia.

But Severino’s second half of 2018 was rough. Not rough enough to prevent him from signing a lucrative extension, yet it still casts doubt on his overall ability. With that in mind, can we expect a rebound to form in 2018?

Projections

  • 2018 Totals: 191 1/3 IP, 3.39 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 10.35 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 5.7 fWAR
  • ZiPS: 186 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 9.92 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 4.9 WAR
  • Steamer: 196 IP, 3.45 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 10.16 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 4.5 WAR
  • PECOTA: 174 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.70 DRA, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 3.5 WARP

The ZiPS and Steamer projections are more or less in line with Severino’s performance from the last two seasons, giving more weight to his 2018 campaign than his superior 2017 finish. Still, those are the top marks for Yankees pitchers. ZiPS has him tied for fifth in WAR among pitchers, behind just Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber. Steamer has him tied for sixth with Justin Verlander sneaking ahead.

Meanwhile, PECOTA is clearly down on Sevy. They have him second in the Bronx in pitching WAR behind James Paxton despite the 25-year-old righty having not too dissimilar projections from other systems. These systems are conservative by design, so Severino shouldn’t be expected to fall exactly in line.

Fatigue and Tipping Pitches

This may be a tired topic, however, we have to address it: Severino had a troublesome second half last season. Actually, his late-season swoon started a couple starts before the second half despite a strong outing in the All-Star Game (and a nice catch to boot).

Recounting the Severino 2018 splits one last time:

  • Opening Day through July 1: 118 1/3 IP, 1.98 ERA, .195/.251/.282 line against, 138 strikeouts vs. 29 walks, six homers and a 13-2 record
  • July 7 through end of season: 73 IP, 5.67 ERA, .299/.340/.515 line against, 82 strikeouts vs. 17 walks, 13 homers and a 6-6 record

Two things jump out: The home runs and the batting average. He allowed more than double the homers in about 2/3 the innings. Meanwhile, the batting average jumped more than 100 points.

Each of these can be explained by two factors: Fatigue and pitch tipping. The Yankees insisted Severino wasn’t injured down the stretch and considering he threw nearly 200 innings (playoffs included), it’s dubious to think they were hiding a serious injury.

Fatigue, however, makes plenty of sense. He leaped from 142 2/3 innings in 2016 to 209 1/3 in 2017. Cole Hamels experienced a similar surge from 2007 to 2008 en route to a World Series title. In 2009, he also saw a drop off in performance, making it through the entire season into the Fall Classic but not putting up exemplary results. He would bounce back completely over the next few seasons.

Severino could repeat Hamels’ progression after losing something, not velocity, but some zip off his stuff in the second half. That may have manifested itself in his changeup results as it rated out as below average after being one of his top offerings in 2017. Being used to the larger workload coming to camp in The Best Shape of His Life™ furthers the rebound narrative.

Pitch tipping could explain the struggles as well. The Red Sox seemed to be all over his pitches in the playoffs and their players were literally calling out the pitches as he went along. That’s easily correctable. Still, it wasn’t too widespread considering how Severino shut down the Athletics for four innings in the Wild Card Game.

ASG starter in 2019? (Rob Carr/Getty)

Expectations and Extension

Fatigue and pitching tipping are no longer valid excuses for Severino. They both can be filed under the “fool me once” doctrine and Sevy now needs to find the next step in his progression.

The projections above weren’t high on Severino for no reason. He’s fifth in fWAR since the beginning of 2017. He’s sixth in strikeout percentage and 18th in HR/FB rate despite pitching half his games in Yankee Stadium. His FIP- in fourth and his xFIP- is fourth. Even with a dreadful second half, he’s still been an elite starter for the past two years.

This year, therefore, marks the inflection point for Severino. Can he establish himself once and for all as an ace? Can he leave behind the 2018 (and not so distant 2016) issues that plagued him to achieve more consistent results? If not, he’ll remain a quandary, eerily unreliable in the eyes of baseball fans. A return to 2017 gives him credit as one of the game’s top pitchers without qualifiers.

The extension he signed last month also changes how he appears to baseball as a whole. His four-year deal worth $40 million guaranteed locks him into a below-market rate while buying out a free agent year with a club option. That solidifies his spot in the Yankees’ hierarchy as their ace for the foreseeable future and shows the team’s faith in his ability to shake off the bitter end to last season.

The real Severino

The real Luis Severino will be the one we see in 2019. He’s brought himself to the brink of stardom without tipping over into bonafide acedom. The electrifying right-hander will assuredly start Opening Day in the Bronx and carry the expectations of being a No. 1 starter on a title contender. That’s a lot, but nothing he hasn’t shown he can handle.

Severino ultimately remains the best experience to watch among Yankees starter. That’s what we look for at the ballpark and on TV, right? In my lifetime, the Yankees haven’t had an in-his-prime pitcher with Severino’s stuff who isn’t pitching the ninth inning. Even with the promise of James Paxton, the eclectic repertoire of Masahiro Tanaka and the Old Man Game of CC Sabathia, Severino is the starter by whom you mark your calendar. That shouldn’t change in 2019.

Gleyber Torres and continuing down the path to greatness [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

The Yankees have really spoiled us. In each of the last three seasons they’ve brought up a highly regarded prospect who immediately produced. It was Gary Sanchez and his two-month assault on American League pitching in 2016. In 2017, it was Aaron Judge rewriting the rookie record books. Last year it was Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, who finished second and third in the Rookie of the Year voting, respectively.

Torres was the most heralded prospect of the quartet and he was also the youngest at the time of his MLB debut, by almost a full year:

  • Judge: 24 years, 109 days
  • Sanchez: 22 years, 305 days
  • Andujar: 22 years, 118 days
  • Torres: 21 years, 130 days

Last season Torres became only the sixth middle infielder this century to put up +3 WAR at age 21 or younger, joining Ozzie Albies, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Starlin Castro. He’s only the second Yankees middle infielder ever to do it, joining Willie Randolph. The last five middle infielders with a 118 OPS+ or better at age 21 or younger is a hell of a list (min. 450 plate appearances):

  • 2018 Gleyber Torres (118 OPS+ in 484 plate appearances)
  • 2016 Carlos Correa (124 OPS+ in 660 plate appearances)
  • 1997 Alex Rodriguez (120 OPS+ in 638 plate appearances)
  • 1996 Alex Rodriguez (161 OPS+ in 677 plate appearances)
  • 1965 Joe Morgan (131 OPS+ in 708 plate appearances)

Gleyber came up last season and more than lived up to the hype. He hit .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) with 24 home runs — Torres hit 24 home runs in 373 career minor league games — with overall solid defense despite some dopey errors. In big spots, Torres was someone the Yankees wanted at the plate. He hit .309/.368/.589 (147 wRC+) with runners in scoring position and .475/.512/.875 (275 wRC+) in high-leverage situations. Golly.

Although he was a well-regarded prospect, Gleyber’s production was a pleasant surprise last year. I’m not sure you could ever count on a 21-year-old coming up and doing what he did last year, especially in New York and in the middle of a postseason race. It was impressive. This year Torres will be on the Opening Day roster and make the transition from pleasant surprise to expected contributor. Let’s preview his upcoming sophomore season.

What can Torres improve?

Well, a lot of things. Players never stop trying to get better and a kid this age and with this little big league experience has plenty of room to grown. As good as Torres is, to me there are three key areas that stand out as places he can get better this season, and going forward in general.

1. Fewer errors, please. At times Gleyber will leave you shaking your head with his defense. He has good range and a strong arm, enough to make plays like this on the regular:

Torres is also weirdly error prone. He made 17 errors last season, more than all but ten players in baseball, and 12 of the 17 were either fielding errors or missed catches. (The other five were throwing errors.) Every infielder throws a ball away from time to time. It happens. The 12 non-throwing errors usually left everyone wondering what in the world happened though. Routine grounders he muffed, relays that he bobbled, things like that.

Andujar is a poor defender and it is clear his issues are physical. He sometimes stumbles over his own feet and often double-clutches on his throws, robbing him of time and accuracy. Those are physical issues. Torres doesn’t lack the tools physically, which is a big reason why the error total is so baffling. The tools are there. He makes enough highlight plays to show us there’s a better defender in there.

Fair or not, the lack of an obvious physical deficiency and the propensity for errors create questions about focus. “He takes plays off,” is something you’ll commonly hear in these situations. The jump from Triple-A to the big leagues is a big one. The game us much faster up here, especially on the infield. My hope is Torres will be less error prone going forward simply because he has more experience now, and knows what to expect.

2. Smarter baserunning, please. Torres was a shockingly bad baserunner last year. Some of it was youthful exuberance. Getting thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, that sorta thing. There were also a lot of poor decisions mixed in there though. Gleyber took the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) as often as a slow-footed catcher last year (not kidding) and some of his slides were cringe-worthy. They were flops more than slides.

Statcast’s sprint speed says Torres is almost perfectly average as a runner. He’s not a burner nor is he a baseclogger. I don’t know if the baserunning issues stem from poor instincts or poor instruction or something else. Whatever it is, Gleyber was a net negative on the bases last year, which took a bite out of his overall value. If you’re going to be bad at something, baserunning is a good thing to be bad at. Even the best/worst baserunners only add/subtract a few runs with their legs across a full 162-game season. Still, there’s room for Torres to improve on the bases going forward. No doubt.

3. Tighten up the strike zone discipline. To me, this is something that can and should improve with experience. Plate discipline tends to improve with age. Last season Torres walked in 8.7% of his plate appearances, almost exactly league average, though his 33.4% chase rate was a bit higher than the 30.4% league average. There was a chase rate spike at midseason when Gleyber went through a slump:

Plate discipline is not about drawing walks. Walks are a byproduct but not the goal. As he tightens up his strike zone discipline, Torres will see more hitter’s counts and thus get some better pitches to hit. That’s the real goal here. To get pitches in the strike zone to drive. He was very good last year even when expanding the zone from time to time. With a little more discipline, he’ll be even better.

Gleyber struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances last season but, to me, he does not look like a true talent 25% strikeout guy at all. The tools and innate hitting ability are there for Torres to eventually get his strikeout rate down into the teens. It may take a year or two. These things don’t happen overnight. A 21-year-old kid chasing out of the zone is not the most surprising thing in the world. I hope to see fewer chases this year. Once the plate discipline really clicks, Torres is going to explode offensively.

Will he move to the top of the lineup?

Barring a Brett Gardner resurgence, the Yankees only have one profile leadoff hitter on the roster, and that player also happens to be their best left-handed bat. With a healthy Didi Gregorius, I don’t think there’s any question Aaron Hicks would hit atop the lineup on an everyday basis. With Gregorius out, Hicks may wind up hitting third between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, creating a void at leadoff.

Aaron Boone mentioned Torres as a potential leadoff hitter last month without making it sound like a serious consideration. His tone indicated it is something he’d be open to doing but not permanently. The batting order is never set in stone, however. It changes throughout the season, and if Torres continues to produce at an above-average rate and tightens up his plate discipline, he’s as good a leadoff candidate as anyone on the roster.

Last year Gleyber received more plate appearances in the No. 9 spot (41.1%) than anywhere else in the lineup, and you know what? I am perfectly fine with that. It’s not like the Yankees were short on guys to hit higher up, plus he was a 21-year-old rookie, and letting him settle into things at the bottom of the order is not unreasonable. Remember when Torres slumped at midseason? Imagine if that happened after he’d been pushed to the top of the lineup. It would’ve become A Thing.

In year two the Yankees should be — and will be, I believe — more willing to bat Torres near the top of the lineup. Since batting Judge and Stanton back-to-back doesn’t appear to be something the Yankees want to do, sticking Hicks between them with Torres leading off makes sense. His poor baserunning is not a good fit for the leadoff spot, I know, but his on-base ability and everything else he brings to the table is. My hunch is Gleyber will, at the very least, force the Yankees to seriously consider moving him to the leadoff spot at some point in 2019.

* * *

Torres will play the entire 2019 season at age 22 and, technically, this will be his first full big league season. He was in Triple-A just long enough last year to push his free agency back shake off the rust following Tommy John surgery. Torres is unbelievably talented and thus far he’s lived up to the hype associated with his prospect ranking. Bumps in the road are inevitable with players this age. In Gleyber’s case, it felt like he was only scratching the surface last year. This season he’ll take another step toward becoming one of the game’s truly elite players.