I don’t know how many of you had a chance to see, or hear about, Max Scherzer’s 4.3 perfect relief innings two days ago against the Astros, but they were nothing short of sensational. He had seven strikeouts and there wasn’t a single Astros hitter he didn’t get the best of. For those of you who missed it, you can find highlights here.

I was so intrigued that I decided to run Scherzer through the pitch F/X mill to see what we could see. The Mizzou righty had a solid, if inconsistent, debut last season after signing late (one Diamondbacks scout I spoke with told me he went to bed the night before the deadline thinking the deal wouldn’t get done). This season, though, he broke out in a big way, posting this line at Triple-A Tucson: 23 innings, 12 hits, 3 ER, 38/3 K/BB ratio. Note that these stats were from just four starts. The Diamondbacks are confident he will still be a starter, and recently GM Josh Byrnes was quoted as saying, “We’re optimistic that he can be a quality major-league starter and probably prefer that that’s the focus at this point.”

For Scherzer to become a starter basically requires two things. First, he needs to show that he has an adequate repertoire of pitches, and second, he needs to show he can keep his command. As for the second point, I think he has quieted his critics a good bit by posting that 12.7 K/BB ratio (!) at Tucson. As for the first, well, I’m going to let the data speak for themselves. Scherzer’s two primary offerings are a fastball with sink and a hard slider. Here are his pitches from Tuesday night (click to enlarge).

The blue and green cluster in the upper-middle region is a straight fastball. He topped out at 98.3 MPH on the pitch F/X tracker, which is much more reliable than many of the inflated gun numbers you see on TV. Slightly below and to the left of that grouping are the sinkers. These were also all very fast, as none of them clocked in below 93 MPH. The fact that they are below the straight fastballs is how we can identify them as sinkers. (Those of you counting at home, we’re up to two devastating pitches.) Further down and to the left, we find the hard slider. The slider was working at 85-87 MPH, and while he didn’t use it much, he did get Miguel Tejada to whiff hard on one for strike three. Most curious to me, though, is the cluster of five pitches in the bottom right corner. I had heard he was working on a change-up, but this pitch is a solid 15 MPH slower than his straight fastball, and it breaks in the opposite direction of his slider. It looks like, instead of developing a change-up, he’s developed a splitter. He wasn’t able to locate for strikes as consistently as he could his other pitches, but he did get it across for called strikes twice in the game. If he can command that arsenal–straight FB, sinker, slider, and splitter–he will be a very good major league starter. If he cannot, he will be a very good major league closer. As a college product, he is fairly well polished and it looks as though he is ready to make an impact for the Diamondbacks immediately.

Max Scherzer photograph used under a Creative Commons license from flickr user tclifton.

Sure, the Tigers made a splash by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, creating a latter-day Murderer’s Row. But other than that, the excitement and action this Hot Stove season has been found west of the Continental Divide. (That is, at least, until Johan Santana moves.) How have the teams done so far?

Interestingly, there has been a good deal of parity in both the AL West and the NL West over the past several seasons. I’ve developed a simple guide to determining if a team in either division will be a contender in 2008. Simply ask yourself the following question:

1. Does your team play in the Bay Area?

If the answer is yes, I’m sorry. This summer, try enjoying the beautiful weather and skyrocketing property values away from the ballpark. Unless you are the kind of person who goes to NASCAR races for the crashes, there won’t be much satisfaction on the field this season.

However, if you answered no, allow me congratulate you on your good fortune! Your team has a fighting shot. That is, unless you’re from Dallas (and really, the Cowboys are good this year, so no complaining).

So let’s take a look at the NL West, which ended the season in a big game of musical chairs, and ultimately produced half of the NL’s playoff contenders (and both of the teams in the NLCS).

Breakdown after the jump. (more…)

A few quick notes regarding the playoff teams before tonight’s play-in game:

Phillies:

• Carlos Ruiz: x-rays on left elbow were negative, he should be OK to play Wednesday.

Padres:

• Jake Peavy will likely start Game 3 of the NLDS (on Saturday with normal rest) should the Padres win tonight.

Diamondbacks:

• Justin Upton will receive x-rays on his left wrist after being hit by an Ubaldo Jimenez fastball Sunday. If he is unable to go, Carlos Quentin is the favorite to take his place on the roster.

Rockies:

• Should the Rockies win the play-in game this evening, Willy Taveras will likely be able to participate in the NLDS.

Cubs:

• Daryle Ward’s sore finger won’t keep him from serving as the Cubs primary pinch hitter in the NLDS.

Yankees:

• Brian Bruney has been told by the Yankees to go home, as his season is finished.
• Slumping Hideki Matsui had fluid drained from his knee, and will likely be limited to DH in Thursday’s series opener in Cleveland.

Red Sox:

• The Red Sox announced that Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling will follow Josh Beckett (in that order) in Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS.

Angels:

• The Angels were able to give a final day off to Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, Gary Matthews, Jr. and Garrett Anderson, all of whom were suffering from nagging injuries or illnesses, and all four will likely be ready for the ALDS opener Wednesday.

Indians:

• Not dead yet, Travis Hafner picked up two RBI Sunday to finish the season with 100 RBI. He posted a .316/.414/.551 September and looks to be ready to help the Tribe in the playoffs.

That’s it, enjoy the game tonight!

With the end of today’s games, the playoff picture is looking a little clearer. All games will be televised nationally on TBS this round, including the one game playoff. Going forward:

The Padres and Rockies will play one game of free baseball tomorrow at 7:37 EDT in Denver. It’ll be Jake Peavy vs. Josh Fogg battling it out for the wild card spot. Bud Black may regret his decision not to start Jake Peavy today, but he’ll go tomorrow. One interesting thing to note, Peavy will not be available for the first two games of a potential NLDS in Philadelphia, which will open up on Wednesday.

The other division series is set, as the Cubs and Diamondbacks open up on Wednesday in Phoenix, with Carlos Zambrano matching up against Brandon Webb. The start time of the game is TBD, but we can hope for a good old pitchers’ duel in the desert. Zambrano has really put his game together in September, going 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA after a shaky August.

Over in the AL, the Yankees will travel to Cleveland as Chien-Ming Wang will face Cy Young hopeful C.C. Sabathia on Thursday. Carsten Charles hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2004, so it’s a little difficult to predict how this will play out, but if he’s as effective as he has been all year, this could be another duel.

Finally, the Red Sox and Angels will open up in Boston with a matchup of two more Cy Young hopefuls: John Lackey and Josh Beckett. This promises to be a very good series, as Kelvim Escobar and Jered Weaver will follow Lackey for the Angels against what is a very strong Red Sox lineup. The Sox will play without Clay Buchholz, but it looks as though Hideki Okajima will be ready to go, keeping Eric Gagne out of high-leverage 8th inning situations.

Here’s to hoping what has been an exceptional September gives way to an exciting October. I think it’s just about time for a playoff beer.

Brandon Webb has been scratched for tonight’s start because of fear of a rain delay that would limit his use. The D-Backs are switching him with airball Owings, who was slated to pitch tomorrow. It seems like a good plan in terms of match-ups. I realized that I overstated the importance of tonight’s game for the D-Backs. A win brings them to Colorado with only the need to avoid a sweep and stay ahead of the Padres. A loss leaves them in the middle of the wild card fray, but likely still in it if they can avoid a sweep by the Rockies. My head hurts. Read this.

Wow, the Rockies just won their tenth in a row to hang around in the NL Wild Card race. The Padres picked up their must-win game with Jake Peavy on the mound to stay at the top of the heap, however. Just to make things interesting, Arizona dropped their third straight, opening the door to San Diego and the Rockies. They play one more in Pittsburgh before going to Coors Field for three games to close out the season. Meanwhile, the Phillies join the Rockies at 1 game back of the Wild Card, with a well-pitched win over the Braves. The Fightins have something else in their sights, however. I’m gonna be in Philly over the weekend, and I think it’s time to buy tickets now.

Life according to Arizona: At this point, the D-Backs have to be sweating bullets. On the bright side, they have likely Cy Young runner up Webb going tomorrow against the Pirates. Unfortunately, that leaves them at Coors Field for the rest of the week with two extreme fly ball guys in Owings (0.99 GB/FB) and Edgar Gonzalez (1.11), and a guy who isn’t much better at keeping it down (Doug Davis, 1.38). They have to be encouraged that Owings is coming off the best start of his career, but he allowed 5 HR in 5 2/3 IP before that gem. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has given up a craptacular 11 HR in 58 IP as a starter. Suffice to say, we may not see Arizona in the playoffs this year if they fail to win behind their ace tomorrow. A win shouldn’t be too much to ask, however, as the Pirates are throwing a 27 year-old with a career 1-9 record and 8.50 ERA. We’re not even getting into the Padres.

Rather than write more about this wide open race at this time, I refer you to the outcome all AL fans and unaffiliated NL rooters should aim for: An extra round of playoffs = free baseball.

If I were a Diamondbacks fan, I would be nervous. Arizona has held onto a slim lead in the West for much of the season now, in large part due to their defense and stellar bullpen. In fact, so far this season the Snakes have been outscored 692-671. That said, they are an exciting team that has won a ton of close games and that is good enough for first place. As they say in football: it’s not how, it’s how many.

As much as I want to resist the old “young teams choke in the clutch” trope, I see bad things happening to this team. For one, their defensive star, two-time Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson is out for the season after undergoing surgery on his finger. In addition to the fact that he was having a fine season with the bat (.294/.376/.441 and on my fantasy team, natch), Hudson is a bigger asset with the leather. This is particularly true when you have sinkerballers like Brandon Webb going every fifth day. Two years ago, Webb posted a 3.54 ERA buoyed by a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .306. Enter Hudson, who was acquired by Josh Byrnes prior to the 2006 season, and Webb posts a Cy Young season with a 3.10 ERA and a BABIP of .291. The defense continued to help out Webb this season, as he has put up 3.03 ERA with a .283 BABIP. So what does Hudson’s loss mean to Webb and the Dbacks?

The O-Dog is the best infield defender on a team who’s pitchers live and die by balls in play (except, maybe, Micah Owings. But that’s when he’s batting.) According to Baseball Prospectus Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) metric, Hudson has been worth 95 runs (or almost 10 wins) to the Snakes over the last two seasons. Since Hudson’s been out, Webb has given up 9 ER in 19 IP. However, his BABIP is down (.262) over that time, albeit in a small sample. I don’t think the loss of Hudson has started to show itself on the field for the Dbacks, but I think it’s only a matter of time before it manifests itself in the loss column.