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4/1 to 4/3 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

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Gardenhire. (Presswire)

I was all ready to say one 2018 last place team is leaving the Bronx and another one is coming in, but then I realized the Tigers finished in third place last year despite going 64-98. Life in the AL Central must be nice. The second series of 2019 brings another rebuilding team to Yankee Stadium.

Their Story So Far

The Tigers did this year what the Yankees did last year — they opened the regular season with a four-game series split in Toronto. Detroit scored six runs in the four games, including four of the six yesterday, and still managed to win twice. The Tigers are relatively early in their rebuild, though they have much more talent than the Orioles team that just left town.

Injury Report

Michael Fulmer had Tommy John surgery a week ago and he’ll obviously miss this season and very likely the start of next season as well. That’s the big injury. Boy, did the Tigers miss their chance to trade Fulmer for maximum value or what? Regular center fielder JaCoby Jones is out with a shoulder issue and righty Drew VerHagen is dealing with arm fatigue. Jones and VerHagen are on the injured list and won’t return this series.

Projected Lineup

The Tigers had a rough time at the plate against the Blue Jays despite splitting the four-game set. Manager Ron Gardenhire joked his offense was driving him to “drink heavily,” and, as a team, the Tigers are hitting .156/.250/.230 (50 wRC+) in 152 plate appearances this year. That’s with the very good Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera too. Yikes.

After using the same lineup the first three games and scoring two runs total, Gardenhire changed things up in their fourth game yesterday. They scored four runs and won, so I imagine they’ll use the same lineup tonight. That seems one like one of those typical baseball things, you know? Here’s the projected lineup:

  1. 3B Jeimer Candelario
  2. RF Nick Castellanos
  3. DH Miguel Cabrera
  4. 2B Niko Goodrum
  5. LF Christin Stewart
  6. 1B John Hicks
  7. CF Mikie Mahtook
  8. C Grayson Greiner
  9. SS Jordy Mercer

When Hicks starts behind the plate, Cabrera plays first base and someone else takes a turn at DH. Gordon Beckham and Dustin Peterson are the reserve infielder and outfielder, respectively. Candelario and Stewart are promising second tier prospects and Goodrum had a sneaky nice season as a super utility last year. A league average bat who can play pretty much anywhere is a valuable piece. Some 2018 Statcast numbers:

Again, Castellanos and Cabrera are the headliners here. Miggy is no longer the hitter he was in his prime, back when he was historically great, but I still don’t want to see him at the plate in a big spot. Cabrera took a pitch to the hand Saturday and was in obvious pain, then he came back and hit two balls to the wall Sunday. Dude can still mash.

Pitching Matchups

Monday (6:35pm ET): RHP Domingo German (vs. DET) vs. RHP Tyson Ross (vs. NYY)

Ross had a nice little bounceback season with the Padres and Cardinals last year, throwing 149.2 innings with a 4.15 ERA (4.39 FIP). The peripherals (19.2 K%, 9.8 BB%, 45.9 GB%) weren’t great, though considering Ross barely pitched the previous two years due to various arm injuries, that’s a good rebound season for a dude who looked done not too long ago. The Tigers gave him a one-year deal over the winter and he’ll make his first start of the season tonight.

The fastball isn’t as lively as it once was and the slider isn’t as sharp as it used to be, but Ross can really spin the ball, and he’s always thrown a ton of sliders. Even at his peak it was close to a 50/50 split with the fastball and slider. Because he doesn’t really have a changeup, left-handed batters have given Ross trouble throughout his career. The Yankees are short on quality lefty bats the moment though, so they aren’t really in position to capitalize.

Tuesday (6:35pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. DET) vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann (vs. NYY)

Last Thursday, Zimmermann did something that hadn’t been done in nearly 80 years: He had a perfect game bid through 6.2 innings on Opening Day. The last pitcher to do that was Hall of Famer Lefty Grove with the 1940 Red Sox. Zimmermann lost the perfect game and no-hit bid with two outs in the seventh and wound up with a no decision for his efforts. Bummer.

Opening Day notwithstanding, Zimmermann has not been the same guy since signing with the Tigers a few years ago. Last season he managed a 4.52 ERA (4.88 FIP) with a great walk rate (4.7%) but mediocre strikeout (20.0%) and ground ball (34.0%) rates in 131.1 innings, and that qualifies as his best season with Detroit. His platoon split has been quite small in recent years, which I guess is a plus.

It could easily be a one-start blip, though it’s worth noting Zimmermann went anti-fastball against the Blue Jays last week. He threw nearly twice as many curveballs and sliders (44) as fastballs (25). Zimmermann’s been more of a 50/50 fastball/breaking ball split guy the last few years. Could be a conscious change, could be small sample noise.

The biggest issue for Zimmermann the last few years has been the long ball. He’s been exceptionally home run prone. Last year it was 28 homers in 131.1 innings and the year before it was 29 homers in 160 innings. That’s a 1.76 HR/9 rate across two seasons. Last August Zimmermann stifled the Yankees for five innings then bam, three homers in the span of four batters in the sixth inning.

Last start (March 28th vs. Blue Jays): 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (4:05pm ET): TBA vs. LHP Matt Boyd (vs. NYY)

Boyd is a really interesting pitcher. I don’t know whether he’s actually good — last season he threw 170.1 innings with a 4.39 ERA (4.45 FIP) and unspectacular peripherals (22.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 29.0 GB%) — but he is interesting. Last year Boyd intentionally threw with less velocity in an effort to disrupt timing, then, when that didn’t work, he went back to throwing hard. Look at this:

Over the years Boyd has also toyed with different arm angles and breaking balls. He’s mostly fastball/curveball/slider these days and he produced better than average hard contact rates last season. When he’s on, Boyd can be really difficult to square up. When he’s off, he’ll give up some dingers, and right-handed batters can give him a real hard time.

As for the Yankees, they have this spot listed as TBA, though it is expected to be Jonathan Loaisiga (or Loaisiga with an opener). CC Sabathia’s suspension ends after tomorrow’s game, at which point the Yankees will put him on the injured list and recall Loaisiga for this start. He didn’t have a good spring (16 IP, 13 H, 13 R, 12 ER, 7 BB, 18 K, 4 HR) and has never faced anyone on the Tigers, so at least Johnny Loaisiga will have the element of surprise going for him.

Boyd’s last start (March 29th vs. Blue Jays): 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Bullpen Status

The Tigers and Blue Jays played eleven innings yesterday, yet Detroit’s bullpen is in good shape going into tonight’s series opener because Matt Moore (?!?) gave them seven strong innings. Huh. Here is Gardenhire’s relief unit:

  • Closer: RHP Shane Greene
  • Setup: RHP Joe Jimenez
  • Middle: RHP Victor Alcantara, RHP Buck Farmer, RHP Reed Garrett, LHP Blaine Hardy, LHP Daniel Stumpf
  • Long: LHP Daniel Norris

Jimenez, Farmer, Stumpf, and Greene all threw an inning yesterday and needed no more than 17 pitches to do it. None of them has pitched back-to-back days either. Norris threw 2.1 innings and 36 pitches on Saturday, so maybe the Tigers don’t want to go back to him just yet. Otherwise it seems everyone will be available tonight.

Greene is miscast as a closer — on a contending team, he’s maybe the fourth or fifth best reliever in the bullpen– but he has A+ stuff and is effectively wild. Jimenez was the selected to the All-Star Game as the token Tiger last year and has allowed 20 runs in 21.2 innings since, including three runs in an inning yesterday. Seems bad. Alcantara, Farmer, and Garrett have live, power arms. Garrett is the token Rule 5 Draft pick on the rebuilding team.

3/28 to 3/31 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

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The new O’s skipper. (Presswire)

Welcome to Opening Day 2019. The Yankees begin the new season at Yankee Stadium this afternoon. The Orioles are in town for the three-game, four-day season-opening series. Tomorrow is the requisite “off-day after Opening Day in case Opening Day gets rained out” off-day. I like to call it “overreactions from Opening Day” day. At this time tomorrow, the Yankees will be either on their way to the World Series or doomed forever. Anyway, time to preview the series.

Their Story So Far

There is no story so far, obviously. The Orioles lost 115 games last season, fifth most in baseball history, and they didn’t do much over they winter. Front office changes took priority over roster changes. The O’s are less talented now than they were last year — remember, they had guys like Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman, and Adam Jones for at least part of last season — though I have a real hard time believing an MLB team can lose 115 games in back-to-back seasons. They’ll be (slightly) better this year almost by default. The Orioles went 12-17-3 during Grapefruit League play, if you care about such things.

Injury Report

Scheduled Opening Day starter Alex Cobb exited his final spring tune-up start with a groin injury over the weekend, forcing the O’s to scramble a bit with their rotation. Cobb is already on the 10-day injured list. So is backup catcher Austin Wynns, who has an oblique strain. Mark Trumbo is rehabbing from offseason knee surgery and he’s on the 60-day injured list. He’s not coming back anytime soon. Cobb and Wynns could be active when the Yankees and Orioles play again next weekend in Baltimore.

Projected Lineup

According to ZiPS, the Orioles have one projected above-average hitter. That’s Trey Mancini with a 105 OPS+. Their second best hitter is a free agent (Danny Valencia at 96 OPS+), their third best hitter is injured (Mark Trumbo at 96 OPS+), and their fourth best hitter is a prospect in Triple-A (Yusniel Diaz at 95 OPS+). Five of their seven best hitters by ZiPS projected OPS+ aren’t on the active roster. Seems bad.

Rookie manager Brandon Hyde — he was previously Joe Maddon’s bench coach with the Cubs — does figure to have  fairly set lineup, at least for the time being. The projected batting order:

  1. CF Cedric Mullins
  2. DH Dwight Smith Jr.
  3. 2B Jonathan Villar
  4. LF Trey Mancini
  5. 3B Rio Ruiz (vs. RHP) or Renato Nunez (vs. LHP)
  6. 1B Chris Davis
  7. RF Joey Rickard
  8. SS Richie Martin
  9. C Jesus Sucre or Pedro Severino

Smith won’t be the full-time DH. He’ll see time in the outfield with Mancini at DH, or Mancini at first base and Davis at DH, or Mancini at first base with Ruiz and Nunez in the lineup and Davis on the bench, so on and so forth. Former Yankee (between waiver claims, anyway) Hanser Alberto is the backup infielder and Rule 5 Draft pick Drew Jackson is a utility guy who should play quite a bit. Here are some 2018 Statcast numbers:

The redder the red, the more above average the player was in that particular category. The bluer the blue, the more below average. Players with an asterisk (*) next to their name didn’t play enough to qualify for the Statcast leaderboards last year. Point is, wow are the Orioles bad. I guess Nunez could be a guy who capitalizes on the extra playing time that comes from being on a terrible team? To me, Mullins is the only lineup regular who has a chance to be part of the next contending Orioles team.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (1:05pm ET): Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Orioles) vs. Andrew Cashner (vs. Yankees)

Thanks to Cobb’s injury, Cashner will start Opening Day on short rest. He threw two innings in a spring tune-up start this past Sunday. Cashner was pretty terrible last season, throwing 153 innings with a 5.29 ERA (5.32 FIP) and underwhelming peripherals (14.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 40.4 GB%), and lefties and righties hit him equally as hard. His stuff doesn’t wow like it once did either.

Cashner shut the Yankees down last April (one run in six innings), then they roughed him up the three times they faced him thereafter (12 runs in 19.1 innings). And you know what that means today? Nothing. It means nothing. Over the last four seasons Cashner has a 4.51 ERA (4.61 FIP) in over 600 innings. That seems more meaningful.

Saturday (1:05pm ET): James Paxton (vs. Orioles) vs. Dylan Bundy (vs. Yankees)

The Orioles have Bundy listed as Saturday’s starter, though Joe Trezza says they might use Nate Karns as an opener instead, which is awfully rude for series preview writing purposes. Bundy, who is still somehow only 26, is coming off a season with a 5.45 ERA (5.17 FIP) and an MLB high 41 home runs allowed in 171.2 innings. His strikeout (24.5%) and walk (7.2%) rates were pretty good. His ground ball rate (34.0%) was not, and lefty batters annihilated him (.399 wOBA). Not much to see stuff-wise either.

Bundy made two starts against the Yankees last year and allowed nine runs in nine innings. They hit the poor kid hard every time they face him. He’s always approaching 80 innings in the third inning, it seems. As for Karns (vs. Yankees), he has not pitched in a big league game since May 19th, 2017, due to elbow issues (inflammation and nerve irritation). He’s a fastball/curveball guy who was quite effective against righties the last time he did pitch, which I guess makes him a good opener candidate against the righty heavy Yankees.

Sunday (1:05pm ET): J.A. Happ (vs. Orioles) vs. TBA

Still no word Sunday’s starter. David Hess and Mike Wright are the actual starting pitcher candidates. Paul Fry has been mentioned as a possible opener, though throwing an unspectacular lefty reliever at Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton seems not smart. I suppose Karns could open back-to-back days. That’s a possibility.

Hess (vs. Yankees) had a rough MLB debut last year, pitching to a 4.88 ERA (5.80 FIP) in 103.1 innings. The strikeout (16.3%), walk (8.2%), and ground ball (34.5%) rates were not good, and he served up 22 home runs in those 103.1 innings. Yikes! Hess is a fairly generic fastball/slider/changeup guy who had a negligible platoon split last year, which in this case means righties and lefties hit him equally hard.

Wright (vs. Yankees) has been around for a few years now as an up-and-down swingman. He finally ran out of minor league options and will stick on the big league roster for good, at least for the time being. Last season he had a 5.55 ERA (4.79 FIP) with yucky peripherals (19.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, 35.4 GB%), and those numbers are actually better than his career numbers (5.75 ERA and 5.21 FIP). Yeesh.

Any team and any pitcher can beat any other team on any given day in this sport, but geez, the Orioles aren’t exactly going to make their opponents sweat with the starters they’re set to run out there. On paper, the Yankees have a clear pitching advantage — a clear everything advantage, really — this series. Whether it translates into wins remains is another matter.

Projected Bullpen

Gotta say, I did not expect Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier to make it through the offseason with the Orioles. I figured they would get traded at some point. The last thing a terrible rebuilding team needs is good relievers. Better to cash them in as trade chips before something goes wrong, you know? Anyway, here is the O’s bullpen setup:

  • Closer: RHP Mychal Givens
  • Setup: LHP Richard Bleier, RHP Miguel Castro
  • Middle: RHP Pedro Araujo, LHP Paul Fry, RHP John Means
  • Long: RHP Jimmy Yacabonis

Only seven relievers with that rotation? Bold. Castro, Means, and Yacabonis can all go multiple innings though, so I guess that keeps them covered. Araujo was a Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He missed a bunch of time with elbow trouble last year and needs to spend 14 days on the active roster this year to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft requirements. Once that happens, Araujo can be shuttled up and down like any other rookie.

Givens and Bleier give the Orioles a respectable end-game duo. Givens is hell on righties and my guess is he’ll be matched up against Judge and Stanton, regardless of whether it is the eighth or ninth inning. Bleier? He’s the one who got away. We’ve spent some time the last few weeks talking about players the Yankees regret trading and Bleier is one. They sent him to the O’s for cash in February 2017. Since then, he has a 1.97 ERA (3.80 FIP) with a 65.3% ground ball rate in 96 innings. Oh well. Can’t win ’em all.

2018 Division Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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The MVP roars. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Baseball’s premier rivalry meets again in the postseason, 14 years after a pair of epic Championship Series duels. This time, it will be a five-game set and the Red Sox have home-field advantage thanks to a tremendous regular season.

The Season Series

Boston was the only team to best the Yankees in the season series this year, taking 10 of 19 from the Bombers after winning the season finale. The Sox outscored the Yankees, 116-102, and dealt the decisive blow to their division hopes with a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August. The Yankees took six of nine at Yankee Stadium but mustered just three wins in 10 tries in Boston.

Who stood out? Rick Porcello went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in four starts while Chris Sale allowed just one run over 13 innings across two victories. He held the Yankees to a .118/.220/.250 line. Mookie Betts hit a ridiculous .415/.506/.738 with 14 extra-base hits against the Pinstripers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge batted .346/.443/.654 with five homers and Giancarlo Stanton hit .371/.423/.700 with five homers and 12 total extra-base hits. Luis Severino guided the Yankees to three wins at the Stadium.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox and Carson Smith are out for the year. Chris Sale is healthy, but his velocity was significantly down in his last start of the year. Eduardo Nunez has dealt with knee issues for the last few seasons.

Their 2018 Season

You know the story. Boston took the league by storm this year, winning a franchise-best 108 wins. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their 876 runs led baseball — Yankees were second with 851 — while 647 runs allowed was only bested by the Astros (534), Dodgers (610), Cubs (645) and Rays (646).

Betts is the likely AL MVP after leading baseball with a .346 average, putting up a 1.078 OPS and playing a Gold Glove-caliber right field. Sale is a Cy Young favorite with a 2.11 ERA over 158 innings while racking up 237 strikeouts. The crazy thing is that J.D. Martinez had a more impressive year in some ways, nearly winning the Triple Crown.

The Lineup We Might See

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 30 SB, 185 wRC+ (AND 10.4 WAR!!)
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 wRC+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.402/.629, 43 HR, 6 SB, 170 wRC+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.360/.522, 23 HR, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .245/.325/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 100 wRC+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.301/.380, 14 HR, 16 SB, 87 wRC+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .240/.298/.433, 21 HR, 5 SB, 90 wRC+
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .234/.314/.403, 13 HR, 17 SB, 90 wRC+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .177/.232/.279, 5 HR, 1 SB, 33 wRC+

The lineup won’t look quite like this in Game 1 with J.A. Happ on the mound for New York. Steve Pearce (140 wRC+, 158 wRC+ vs. LHP) will certainly play first base and Eduardo Nunez (78 wRC+, 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) could take over at third base. Pearce could also start at DH or first vs. righties and force Moreland or Bradley Jr. to the bench.

But, hot diggity dog, the top of that lineup is good. You can’t let guys like Bradley Jr. and Leon get on or else Betts, Benintendi and Martinez will make you pay.

Come Sale away. (Getty Images)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Game 1 (Friday at 7:32 PM ET): Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ
The stuff: He’s got a 95+ mph fastball, a wipe-out high-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The guy has some of the best stuff in baseball when he’s on.

The questions: Health and ability to go deep in games. Sale pitched just 12 innings over four starts in September. He struck out 18 and allowed just five runs, but he didn’t look quite like himself. Perhaps that was because the games were meaningless. His fastball averaged just 90.2 mph in his final start of the year as his velocity has trickled down his last few starts. Mike broke down Sale’s disappearing velocity earlier today.

Performance vs. NYY: Outside of one bad start last September, he’s really had the Yankees’ number since coming to Boston. His seven innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball at the Stadium in June was perhaps the best road performance against the Bombers this year.

Game 2 (Saturday at 8:15 PM ET): David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka 
I’ll be brief on the next three starters because Domenic and Mike broke them down over the last few weeks. Here’s Dom’s preview that touched on Price recently.

The story with Price is simple: He’s a great pitcher. He’s had a strong second half. But he can’t seem to beat the Yankees’ and their right-handed power, nor has he acquitted himself well in the postseason. Both of those storylines hang over him heading into Game 2.

Game 3 (Monday at 7:40 PM ET): Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
Porcello’s had a fine, average-ish year, as Domenic pointed out last week. Like Price (and Sale), he’s struggled in the postseason historically. However, he’s been able to keep the Yankees off balance and one-hit them at Fenway in August after no-hitting them into the middle innings in April. He was unable to beat them at Yankee Stadium in one try.

Game 4 (Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET): Nathan Eovaldi vs. CC Sabathia

I can’t put it better than Mike, who broke down Eovaldi’s season and his strong numbers against the Yankees. Check out his piece!

Game 5 (Thursday at 7:40 PM ET): TBD vs. TBD
If we get this far, I’d bet on Sale starting instead of Price for obvious reasons, though Sale may be needed in relief in Game 4 like last season. On the Yankees’ end, they get to pick between whoever performed better among Tanaka and Happ in the first two games.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox will have seven relievers for this series, eight if you count Eovaldi in the early part of the series. Craig Kimbrel is the closer, mostly in one-inning stints, though the postseason will likely call for longer outings. Matt Barnes has been his primary setup man both before and since returning from the disabled list.

From there, it gets hairy. Recently, Alex Cora has turned to Steven Wright and Ryan Brasier in the middle innings. Wright especially has kept the Yankees off-balance, but the knuckleballer shouldn’t scare the Bombers.

Eduardo Rodriguez will act as the long man after missing out on the Game 4 start. Beyond him, the final two spots came down to Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree with Hembree missing the cut. Kelly was dreadful down the stretch and Cora will likely loathe utilizing him in a high-leverage spot.

Tipping Points

  • Sale’s readiness: He’s barely pitched down the stretch and he’s arguably the most important player in this series.
  • Relying on the bullpen: We know the Yankees can rely on their bullpen, but will they to the extent they need to or will Aaron Boone leave his starters in too long? On the other side, can Alex Cora find a bridge between his rotation and Craig Kimbrel that doesn’t cost his team a game or the series?
  • Left on right: It’s not as simple as the platoon advantages, but the Red Sox are going with two lefties presumably for three of the five starts in this series while the Yankees boast the best collection of right-handed hitting talent in baseball. If Sale and Price can navigate the lineup 2-3 times through with a lead, Boston should take the series.
  • Mookie Betts: He’s so freaking good. Ugh.

9/28 to 9/30 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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J.D. Martinez. (Getty)

This is it, folks – the last series of the regular season. The Yankees are sitting at 98-61, meaning they’ve already clinched their best record since 2009, and their magic number for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game is one. That means that there is, in an ideal world, precious little to play for this weekend so long as we see a Yankees win or an A’s loss at some point. So here’s hoping for as little drama as possible.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set just over a week ago, taking two out of three by a combined score of 19-14. Some notes:

  • Aaron Judge returned to the lineup in the first game, but Neil Walker played the role of hero, knocking out what proved to be a game-winning three-run home run in the 7th inning. J.A. Happ was pretty good, too, allowing just one unearned run in 6 innings of work.
  • Luis Severino had arguably his best start of the month (if not the second half) in game two, tossing 7 innings and allowing 6 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, while striking out 6.
  • Luke Voit was the story of the second game, though, going 4-for-4 with two home runs. He hit another home run the next night, too.
  • We won’t talk about game three otherwise.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since the last series – Marco Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, and Carson Smith are done for the year, and Eduardo Nunez’s knee is still bothering him.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 107-52 with a +229 run differential, and clinched the best record in baseball what seems like a lifetime ago. They lead the majors in runs scored by 25 (the Yankees are second), and only the Astros and Dodgers have allowed fewer runs. As much as I hate to type these words out, they’re the team to beat right now – and it’d be disingenuous to say otherwise.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Alex Cora has been giving a bit of extra rest to his regulars this week, which isn’t terribly surprising. Their go-to lineup is generally:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.437/.643, 32 HR, 30 SB, 187 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.364/.462, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.403/.629, 42 HR, 6 SB, 174 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.358/.517, 22 HR, 8 SB, 133 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .244/.322/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 102 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .243/.299/.383, 14 HR, 15 SB, 87 OPS+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .244/.301/.440, 21 HR, 5 SB, 97 OPS+
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .232/.312/.399, 13 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .180/.235/.284, 5 HR, 1 SB, 40 OPS+

Steve Pearce (138 OPS+) will start somewhere against J.A. Happ, Brock Holt (105 OPS+) will start a game or two at various positions, and Christian Vazquez (47 OPS+) should see some time behind the plate.

Porcello. (David Maxwell/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:00 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Brian Johnson

Johnson started against the Yankees back on August 2, and it was a mixed bag for the 27-year-old southpaw. He walked away with the win and struck out 11 in just 5 innings … but he also allowed five runs. I suppose that’s what happens when your team wins 15-7. But I digress. Johnson has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox this year, pitching to a 4.11 ERA (106 ERA+) in 96.1 IP split between the rotation and the bullpen.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 1 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has faced the Yankees twice since being acquired by the Red Sox, and he’s been all but unhittable, pitching to the following line: 14.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K. His ERA in the seven games between Yankees match-ups is 6.58, which is endlessly frustrating, as well.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 9/24) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K

Sunday (3:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

Porcello has been his typically average-ish self this year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA (101 ERA+) in 189.1 IP. He rarely misses a turn in the rotation, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in 26 of his 32 starts. And his two best starts of the year have come against the Yankees; he threw a complete game one-hitter on August 3, and 7 innings of shutout ball on April 12. So let’s hope Sunday is more similar to his May 9 start in which he allowed 5 runs in 5.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 K

The Bullpen

Closer Craig Kimbrel is having his typically strong season, but he looked completely lost his last time out; he faced five batters, walking three and hitting one, and left the game with the bases loaded (and all of those inherited runners would go on to score).

It’s a bit shaky behind Kimbrel, with knuckleballer Steven Wright being the only other standout of late. Ryan Brasier has been solid, as well (albeit prone to Yankees-related shellings), and Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez have had good seasons.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a Yankees-Red Sox series with a little something on the line. That’s all I need.

9/24 to 9/27 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

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Tommy Pham and Joey Wendle. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees magic number to clinch home field advantage is five, with seven games to play. They’re two games up in the loss column, which is good, but they’re remaining schedule is quite difficult – especially when compared to the A’s, who will face the Mariners and Angels. The odds are in the Yankees favor but, to be incredibly cliche, that’s why they play the games.

With two series remaining, the Yankees will first travel to Tampa Bay.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Rays for a three-game set back in the middle of August, dropping two out of three by a combined score of 10-6. Some of that could be chalked up to Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez being on the DL, Andrew McCutchen still in San Francisco, and Luke Voit not yet emerging – but it was still a bothersome series to watch. Some notes:

  • J.A. Happ spun a gem in the first game, throwing 7 scoreless innings and allowing just six base-runners (one of which was via HBP). It was his first of three scoreless outings for the good guys thus far.
  • Miguel Andujar went 2-for-4 with a double and a solo home run in game two … and the rest of the offense went 3-for-28 with a double.
  • Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs in the first, but settled down nicely from there; unfortunately, the Yankees once again mustered only a single run – this one off of a double by Giancarlo Stanton.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more (not so) fun facts.

Injury Report

Wilmer Font, Jose Mujica, and Daniel Robertson have been added to the Rays fairly lengthy list of players that are done for the season. Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier are also dealing with nagging injuries, though neither has hit the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 87-68 with a +85 run differential, and have an incredibly slim chance at making the playoffs as the second Wild Card team. To do so they would need to win out while the A’s lost out, though, so the degree of ‘slim’ cannot really be exaggerated. That being said, it’s still kind of miraculous that this team has played so well since opening the season 3-12, considering that they are tied for the eight-best record in baseball with the Cleveland Indians.

Their season has been unconventional, to say the least, but their bullpen/opener strategy appears to be catching on a bit more than expected – so this may end up being one of the more memorable non-playoff seasons in recent memory.

The Lineup We Might See

Operating under the assumption that Kiermaier and Choi will be playing:

  1. Mallex Smith, RF – .299/.370/.409, 2 HR, 36 SB, 118 OPS+
  2. Matt Duffy, 3B – .295/.359/.367, 4 HR, 12 SB, 104 OPS+
  3. Ji-Man Choi, DH – .267/.353/.513, 10 HR, 2 SB, 137 OPS+
  4. Tommy Pham, LF – .273/.361/.456, 20 HR, 13 SB, 124 OPS+
  5. Joey Wendle, 2B – .301/.356/.439, 7 HR, 15 SB, 121 OPS+
  6. Willy Adames, SS – .271/.340/.410, 10 HR, 6 SB, 109 OPS+
  7. Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .220/.284/.376, 7 HR, 10 SB, 82 OPS+
  8. Jake Bauers, 1B – .198/.316/.389, 11 HR, 5 SB, 96 OPS+
  9. Jesus Sucre, C – .215/.250/.260, 1 HR, 1 SB, 43 OPS+

Nick Ciuffo (73 OPS+) will probably see a start or two at catcher, and Carlos Gomez (80 OPS+), C.J. Cron (125 OPS+), and Austin Meadows (117 OPS+) will see some time in the lineup, as well.

Ryne Stanek with some serious #flow. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:00 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Holder vs. RHP Diego Castillo

A 24-year-old rookie, Castillo has been quite good for the Rays this year. He has a 3.25 ERA (127 ERA+) in 52.2 IP, spread across 10 starts and 31 relief appearances. That’s right in-line with his 3.33 FIP, as he has solid strikeout (9.9 K/9) and walk (3.1 BB/9) rates. He’s faced the Yankees six times this year, pitching to the following line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 5 K. Castillo is a fastball-slider guy all the way, featuring a high-90s four-seamer and a high-80s slider.

The Yankees, meanwhile, announced earlier today that Holder will get tonight’s start. Aaron Boone hinted at a bullpen game at some point this week as the Yankees look to get their pitching staff lined up for the Wild Card Game next week. There’s a chance Holder will be used as an opener with Sonny Gray set to take over in the second inning, after Holder faces the top of the lineup.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/21) – 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Tuesday (7:00 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Thursday (1:10 PM EST): TBA vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

The Yankees are trying to get their postseason rotation lined up and the Rays are using openers, so the starting pitchers for the majority of the series remain TBA. The Rays acquired Glasnow in the Chris Archer trade and he’s been league average for the Rays (4.11 ERA and 100 ERA+), throwing 50.1 IP with a 9.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Glasnow is similar to a young Dellin Betances. He’s got an upper-90s fastball and a hammer breaking ball. His strike-throwing ability varies on a game-by-game basis.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/22) – 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

The Rays bullpen has thrown 779.2 IP this year; the Angels are in second, with 606.0. That difference is greater than the difference between the Angels and the team with the fewest relief innings (the Indians with 440.0), so it’s kind of miraculous that the Rays bullpen is in the top-ten in all of baseball in adjusted-ERA this year. Their bullpen was showing signs of fatigue in late-July and early-August, but it has rebounded to the tune of a 110 ERA+ in the second-half.

Sergio Romo is nominally the team’s closer, picking up 5 saves so far this month, but he has struggled this month, allowing home runs in three of his last five appearances, and is being used a bit more sparingly. Ryan Yarbrough (3.88 ERA in 139.1 IP) is the team’s long-reliever, with Yonny Chirinos (3.68 ERA in 85.2 IP) second-in line for those longer appearances. Jose Alvarado, Adam Kolarek, and Andrew Kittredge have been playing big roles for them of late, as well.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a rivalry series with both team’s having something on the line, regardless of however fleeting it may be for the Rays – what more do you need?

9/21 to 9/23 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

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Mancini and Jones (Getty Images)

After taking two of three from the Red Sox, the Yankees ride high into their final home series of the season. Their reward is a three-game set with the worst team in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles.

The Last Time They Met

The Bombers took four games in three days from the Orioles on Players’ Weekend on Aug. 24-26 in Baltimore.

  • Luke Voit and Neil Walker powered the Yankees to an extra-inning win in Game 1 while Zach Britton saved the game against his former squad.
  • The Yanks backed gems from J.A. Happ and Sonny Gray with five homers and 15 runs in the Saturday doubleheader, finally sweeping a twin bill.
  • Voit hit another early homer and the Yankees’ bullpen sealed a sweep in a 5-3 victory.

Make sure to read Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Mark Trumbo, Pedro Araujo, Richard Bleier, Gabriel Ynoa and Luis Ortiz are all done for the year. Chance Sisco is in concussion protocol and has missed the last three games.

The Orioles’ rotation is in flux as both Andrew Cashner (left knee discomfort) and Alex Cobb (blister) have missed recent starts.

Their Story So Far

The Orioles are a putrid 44-108. Their win on Wednesday ensures they won’t break the AL record for losses in a season, but they have already set a franchise-worst mark with the 108 defeats. This team is set up to be awful for a while as they are just beginning a long rebuild and their farm system isn’t exactly stacked. Get used to seeing them at the bottom of the AL East.

The Lineup We Might See

1. CF Cedric Mullins II (.268/.345/.433, 114 wRC+)
2. 2B Jonathan Villar (.263/.323/.394, 95 wRC+)
3. DH Adam Jones (.284/.315/.426, 100 wRC+)
4. LF Trey Mancini (.239/.297/.413, 92 wRC+)
5. 1B Chris Davis (.171/.246/.302, 48 wRC+)
6. SS Tim Beckham (.222/.277/.353, 71 wRC+)
7. 3B Renato Nunez (.238/.304/.369, 83 wRC+)
8. RF John Andreoli (.231/.268/.250, 41 wRC+)
9. C Austin Wynns (.247/.271/.366, 71 wRC+)

Rookie outfielder D.J. Stewart has received back-to-back starts while brothers Caleb and Corban Joseph are on the bench. Joey Rickard usually starts vs. lefties. Breyvic Valera and plenty of September call-ups could see the lineup as well.

Buck is gonna be doing a whole lot of this in the series. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will Likely See

Friday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Yefry Ramirez
Former Yankee farmhand Yefry Ramirez has seen plenty of innings in his rookie season, though he just returned to the rotation on Sept. 15 after spending a few weeks in the bullpen. He was sharp, allowing just one run over 5 2/3 innings, but he took the loss thanks to the Orioles’ anemic offense. On the whole, he has a 5.50 ERA in 55 2/3 innings. He’s dished out 4.9 walks per nine innings.

Ramirez is a fastball-slider-changeup pitcher. His four-seamer works around 93 mph while his slider and changeup are both in the mid-80s. He works off the fastball while going to his changeup and slider at a 26.0 and 22.1 percent rate, respectively.

Last outing (vs. CHW on Sept. 15) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP David Hess
Another game, another rookie. Despite David Hess throwing 91 1/3 innings this season, the Yankees have yet to face the right-hander. He’s made 17 starts and sports a 5.22 ERA thanks to a plethora of homers (19, 1.9 per nine innings). His 16.0 K% and 7.6 BB% don’t inspire much confidence, nor does a 1.42 WHIP. He’s a fly-ball pitcher pitching his home games at Camden Yards. Yikes.

He goes primarily with a four-seam fastball in the low-90s while using his slider a fourth of the time. Other than that, he mixes in a low-80s changeup and a slow curveball.

Last outing (vs. CHW on Sept. 16) – 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 3 HR

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. TBD
After throwing off a mound Tuesday, Cobb will likely start in this series, whether on Sunday or by slotting in earlier during the weekend. He lasted just two innings in his last start due to blister issues, though he lowered his ERA to 4.90 in the process. After a horrid first half where he allowed 17 homers and sported a 6.41 ERA, he’s been the Orioles’ ray of hope with a 2.56 ERA in his last 10 outings.

If Cobb can’t go or takes the start earlier in the series, Dylan Bundy or rookie right-hander Evan Phillips could get the call Sunday.

The Bullpen

With Zach Britton on the Yankees, Brad Brach on the Pirates and Darren O’Day injured and a Brave, Mychal Givens has inherited the closer role. LHP Paul Fry has emerged as an OK middle innings option, albeit with a few too many walks recently. The rest of the bullpen amalgamates to a horrendous hodgepodge.

Here’s how the bullpen as a whole has measured up in the second half:

  • 5.54 ERA (21st in MLB)
  • 5.53 FIP (Last in MLB)
  • -1.4 WAR (29th in MLB)
  • 20.3% K rate (22nd in MLB)
  • 12.3% BB rate (29th in MLB)
  • 1.62 HR/9 (28th in MLB)

Who (Or What) To Watch

This might be the last time Adam Jones comes to Yankee Stadium as an Oriole. It’s also almost certainly Buck Showalter’s last series against the Yankees as Orioles manager. Otherwise, this series is almost all about the Yankees’ attempts to clinch a playoff berth and put distance between them and the Athletics.

9/18 to 9/20 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

The Yankees opened their final homestand of the 2018 season by dropping two out of three to the Blue Jays, which isn’t great. Luckily, the A’s also lost two out of three this weekend – thank you, Tampa Bay (which is a sentence I feel strange writing) – so the Yankees remain two up in the loss column in the Wild Card race. And that’s something.

Next up: the Boston Red Sox.

The Last Time They Met

Do we have to talk about this?

The Yankees visited Boston for a four-game set in the beginning of August, the result of which was a sweep in favor of the bad guys. The Red Sox outscored the Yankees 28-13, and secured their position atop the American League East. Let’s try to find some positives from the series:

  • Giancarlo Stanton had three multi-hit games, and went 6-for-16 with two doubles and a home run overall.
  • Chance Adams had a decent big-league debut, going 5 inning and allowing three hits, three runs, and one walk, while striking out a couple.

That’s about it. Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia and Carson Smith are both done for the season. Matt Barnes is working his way back from hip inflammation, and has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions already – he could be back soon. Mookie Betts (oblique) and Eduardo Nunez (knee) are both banged-up, but neither is expected to hit the disabled list; and both should play this series.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 103-47 with a +221 run differential, and have already clinched a postseason spot. Their magic number to clinch the AL East is two, so one win this series will do the trick. It’s only a matter of time before they clinch home field throughout the playoffs, as well. They lead the majors in runs scored, they’re third in runs allowed, and they’re seventh in FanGraphs’ defensive rating. This is a well-rounded team, to say the least.

The Lineup We Might See

While manager Alex Cora doesn’t have a reason to rush Betts back into the lineup, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’ll be there for at least two of the three games. Based on that:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .337/.431/.619, 29 HR, 28 SB, 180 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.363/.467, 16 HR, 20 SB, 123 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .328/.398/.628, 41 HR, 5 SB, 172 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.359/.519, 21 HR, 8 SB, 134 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .246/.320/.440, 15 HR, 2 SB, 103 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .249/.308/.394, 14 HR, 15 SB, 91 OPS+
  7. Jackie Bradley, CF – .232/.310/.400, 12 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  8. Rafael Devers, 3B – .238/.295/.415, 17 HR, 5 SB, 90 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .182/.240/.287, 5 HR, 1 SB, 42 OPS+

Steve Pearce (149 OPS+) will probably start at first against J.A. Happ, and Brock Holt (98 OPS+) could grab a start or two at any number of positions.

Price. (Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (1:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has been a solid pick-up for the Red Sox, pitching to a 4.17 ERA (105 ERA+) in 41.0 IP. His underlying numbers have slipped quite a bit, though, with his strikeout rate dipping by 7.8 percentage points and his walk rate jumping by 1.9 percentage points. It hasn’t hurt him (or the Red Sox) thus far, though. And he did throw 8 shutout innings against the Yankees on August 4.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/11) – 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP David Price

Price has been incredible since the All-Star break, pitching to the following line: 57.2 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 60 K, 1.56 ERA, 2.25 FIP. That stretch includes his outing against the Yankees on August 5, where he allowed two runs in 6 IP. Price’s pitch selection hasn’t changed all that much on a game-by-game basis, so this is simply a matter of a talented pitcher getting hot at the right time, it seems.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/12) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

This year constitutes something of a breakout for the 25-year-old Rodriguez, who has career-bests in ERA (3.53), strikeouts (26.3%), and walks (7.1%). The Yankees have seen him twice this year already; he shut them out for five innings back on May 10, and then allowed five runs in 6 innings on June 29. I’m hoping for more of the latter this time around.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/13) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel had a bout of mortality coming out of the All-Star break, allowing runs in five of six games at one point and seeing his ERA climb by 0.86 in the process. He has settled down since then, though, pitching to a 0.82 ERA in his last 11 appearances.

31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier has come out of nowhere to be a lights out late inning option for the Red Sox, pitching to a 1.53 ERA (286 ERA+) in 29.1 IP since being called-up in June, and he’s been the team’s best non-Kimbrel reliever in Barnes’ absence. Drew Pomeranz was moved to the bullpen in August, and has struggled mightily in that role with a 5.79 ERA in 18.2 IP. Outside of those two, it’s the usual suspects – Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, etc. The bullpen is probably the closest thing to a weakness the Red Sox have, as it has been largely middle of the pack since the break.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The Red Sox have close to nothing to play for at this point, whereas the Yankees are fighting for home field advantage in a one-game playoff. That’s a recipe for excitement, isn’t it?