No, it’s not Friday, but it is Thanksgiving week, so I’m posting the mailbag early. The rest of the week will be pretty slow around here. Anyway, there are eight questions in this week’s special Wednesday edition of the mailbag. Send all your questions and comments to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Greg asks: Harper. Five years, $200 million. Who says no? Harper at 10 years 330 million+ just seems like too long a commitment, right? Yankees burn through luxury tax money but at least they know they’re as likely as can be to get Bryce’s 5 best years, and the dollars are still worth it in terms of likely WAR. Which side says no? Or is this a plausible deal?

It’s a good idea but this contract isn’t realistic at all. In the current landscape, your only hope of getting a guy like Bryce Harper on a five-year deal is giving him a ten-year deal with an opt-out after five years. Jason Heyward got eight years with opt-outs after years three and four. That’s essentially a three (or four) year deal with a five (or four) year insurance policy. Eric Hosmer got eight years with an opt-out after year five. That’s a five-year deal with a three-year insurance policy. That’s the free agent landscape right now.

Harper and Manny Machado are going to sign contracts so convoluted and loaded with opt-outs that it’ll be impossible to tell whether it’s fair value. They’re in position to get massive deals. I’m talking ten years and more than $30M annually. And they will sign for that. They’re also going to get opt-outs, probably more than one. That way, if things are going really well, they can test the market again. And if not, they stick to the original contract. A short-term, big dollar deal doesn’t work anymore. They’ll take the long-term deal with opt-outs rather than potentially leave themselves in position to struggle for work in a few years.

Jim asks (short version): Why are our Yankees farmhands assigned to the Glendale team doing so poorly? Especially the hitters in what I thought was regarded as a hitter’s league? Or, to look at it more broadly, after all the promotions and trades has our farm system gone quickly from exceptional to ordinary??

It was a really crappy year in the Arizona Fall League for Yankees prospects. I posted a minor league update earlier this week that quickly got buried by the Paxton trade. Thairo Estrada hit .238/.282/.263. Estevan Florial hit .178/.294/.260. The four pitchers combined to allow 45 runs in 56 innings. Yuck. The Yankees didn’t send any notable pitching prospects to the AzFL this year. I wouldn’t worry about them. Matt Wivinis is the most interesting as a spin rate guy. That’s about it. Don’t sweat the arms.

As for Estrada and Florial, they at least have the injury excuse? Thairo got shot last offseason and didn’t have the bullet removed until June. Plus he had some wrist and back trouble. Florial had wrist surgery this summer. But still, it was a disappointing year in the AzFL. I wouldn’t obsess over it — we’re talking about only 100 plate appearances or so — but yeah, it was a disappointing AzFL showing for everyone wearing the interlocking NY. I was hoping Florial in particular would tear it up. Alas.

As for the farm system overall, yes, it has definitely gone from great to middle of the pack (or worse) the last 18 months or so. For good reasons though. The Yankees graduated Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green to the big leagues, among others. They used Justus Sheffield, Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, and others as trade chips. It’s not like their prospects busted. Looking at my 2017 top 30 list, 15 of the 30 are either established MLB players or were traded for established MLB players, including ten of the top 14. That is a pretty great rate of return.

Tim asks: What is your prediction for when/if/where Thairo Estrada plays? By 2020 (or late 2019?) could he take over 2B allowing Torres to 3rd & Andujar to 1B how would the infield defense look in this hypothetical if Didi is a long term guy?

The injuries this season, which include getting shot in a botched robbery this past January, essentially put Estrada’s career on hold for a year. I really like the kid. He’s a rich man’s Ronald Torreyes. He gets the bat on the ball consistently and has some pop, and he’s a very good defender who can play the three non-first base infield positions. That’s a high-end utility guy or a low-end starter. Not sexy! But it’s better to grow your own players like that than give them a few million bucks as free agents.

Including the Arizona Fall League, the 22-year-old Estrada played only 37 games and received only 167 plate appearances this year. Ideally he’d spend most of 2019 in Triple-A to play as much as possible. That said, if a need arises at the MLB level, he’s on the 40-man roster and is a call-up option. I think Thairo’s an up-and-down guy in 2019, a full-time bench guy in 2020, and possibly a starter by 2021. I certainly wouldn’t let him stand of the way of a Didi Gregorius extension or Machado signing. Estrada looks like a useful piece but not a cornerstone type.

Dan asks: I don’t think the trade is bad at all, but did the Yanks strike too soon on Justus for Paxton, rather than waiting and trying to use him to acquire a better pitcher (Kluber, MadBum). You can only trade Justus once.

Nah, I don’t think they acted too soon. I’d rather have James Paxton than Madison Bumgarner at this point — Bumgarner is still really good, but it’s one year of Bumgarner vs. two of Paxton (Bumgarner’s past postseason success is meaningless to the Yankees) — and I’m not convinced Corey Kluber will actually be traded. Would I rather the Yankees have used Sheffield to get Kluber or Carlos Carrasco? Yes. But that may not have been possible, and you can’t ask the Mariners to wait to trade Paxton until you’ve exhausted trade talks with the Indians. I mean, you could, but they don’t have oblige. The choice wasn’t necessarily Paxton or Kluber/Bumgarner. It might’ve been Paxton or nothing because Kluber and Bumgarner aren’t truly attainable. Totally fine with it. Paxton’s really good and high-end starters are hard to acquire. Strike when you can and don’t worry about what’s behind Door No. 2.

Seb asks: What would it take to pry away Andrelton Simmons from the Angels? Would you be interested?

It’d take a lot to get him and yes I’d be extremely interested. Simmons is still only 29, he remains an All-World defender at shortstop, and his bat has come around the last few seasons. He hit .292/.337/.417 (109 wRC+) with eleven homers this year and .278/.331/.421 (103 wRC+) with 14 homers last year. That offense with his defense makes Simmons a comfortable +5 WAR player. There are two years and $28M remaining on his contract ($8.29M luxury tax hit) which is extremely reasonable. I’d take Simmons in a heartbeat, especially with Gregorius out.

What would it take? Well, that’s the hard part. The Yankees don’t have Sheffield to trade anymore and their tippy top prospects are all lower level kids like Florial and Anthony Seigler. Aside from Andujar and Torres, their top MLB ready trade chips are concussed Clint Frazier, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, and Mike King. I don’t think two of those four (or three of the four?) plus other stuff would be enough. I’d want more if I were the Angels. Simmons would be a real great fit as a high contact (7.3 K% in 2018) bat. And once Gregorius returns, the Yankees could put Simmons at short, Didi at second, Gleyber at third, and Andujar in left or at first.

John asks: With the addition of Paxton, what is the future for J.A. Happ?

The Paxton trade doesn’t necessarily close the door on Happ. The Yankees are reportedly still interested in him. They have an open rotation spot and he’d be a cheaper alternative to Patrick Corbin. My quick math says the Yankees have $25M to spend under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Corbin would eat up pretty much all of that. Happ would chew up what, maybe $13M to $15M a year? That’d leave money for a Gregorius replacement and bullpen help. Heck, the Paxton trade might make a Happ reunion more likely given the financials associated with signing Corbin. In a vacuum, I’d greatly prefer Corbin. He’s younger and I think he’ll be the better pitcher going forward. This isn’t a vacuum though, salaries matter, and Happ may be the better fit. Happ is not going to have any shortage of suitors, of course. The Yankees will have to win a bidding war no matter which free agent starter they sign.

Emily asks: You said something in the chat this week that confused me: under a potential two-team expansion, you advocated for two leagues composed of four four-team divisions and a balanced schedule, with the top four teams from each league going to the playoffs, irrespective of division. Well if it’s a balanced schedule and records are irrespective of division, what purpose does having divisions serve?

As noted, my ideal MLB setup is two 16-team leagues, balanced schedules, and the top four teams in each league going to the postseason. Divisions would be pointless. Baseball also loves history and tradition though, and eliminating divisions all together seems like one of those things that would make people unnecessarily mad. So make four four-team divisions for bragging rights or whatever. Then people can complain it’s unfair that a division winner doesn’t make the postseason when it inevitably happens. There’s no reason for divisions under my preferred setup. It gives folks something to talk about though. Bragging rights, etc. Divisions would be pointless but also harmless.

Mark asks: Seeing how the Yankees stayed under the Base Tax Threshold, do they see part of the money paid into the Luxury Tax from other teams?

Indeed. The Yankees do get a piece of the luxury tax pie this year. According to the Ronald Blum, only the Red Sox ($11.3M) and Nationals ($2.1M) have to pay luxury tax this year. Here’s what happens to that combined $13.4M in luxury tax money per Collective Bargaining Agreement Article XXIII(H)(2)(a-c):

(a) The first $13 million of proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be used to defray the Clubs’ funding obligations arising from the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(b) 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to fund contributions to the Players’ individual retirement accounts, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.
(c) The other 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be provided to Clubs that did not exceed the Base Tax Threshold in that Contract Year.

Right off the top, $13M of the $13.4M is taken to defray player benefits. Half the remaining $400,000 is taken to help fund player retirement accounts. The remaining $200,000 is then given to the non-luxury tax paying teams. The $200,000 divided by 28 non-luxury tax paying teams equals $7,142.86 per team. An insignificant amount.

The Yankees have had some substantial luxury tax bills over the years. It was $27.4M as recently as 2016, for example. Chop that up as laid out above and the Yankees paid about $300,000 in luxury tax money to the 24 non-luxury tax paying teams that year. Still an insignificant amount to an MLB team. The Yankees have said they don’t want to line the pockets of other teams with luxury tax money, which is fine. But they’re not giving these teams millions. It’s a couple grand apiece.

We have eleven questions in this week’s mailbag. Make sure you send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can each week.

Matt asks: Question: Is there any value in Carlos Santana, does he fit? Or is it just more name value and someone we should pass on trying to take off the Phillies hands.

Reports indicate the Phillies are trying to move Santana, who has two years and $35M remaining on his contract ($20M luxury tax hit). Rhys Hoskins was a disaster in left field this year (-24 DRS) and they have to get him back at first base, which means Santana has to go. Santana hit .229/.352/.414 (109 wRC+) with 24 homers and more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) in 2018, and a terrible April dragged down his overall numbers.

• April: .153/.295/.276 (63 wRC+)
• Rest of 2018: .245/.364/.444 (119 wRC+)

Post-April Santana is the guy we’re used to seeing. The Yankees have a clear need at first base — they could also put Santana (or Luke Voit) at DH and Giancarlo Stanton in left field — and a switch-hitter with power and patience would fit the lineup well. The Phillies would have to eat money to facilitate a trade, I think that’s true no matter where they send Santana at this point, but yeah, I think there’s a potential fit. Does something like, say, Santana and $12M for Jonathan Loaisiga work?

Armando asks: Let’s say Nats don’t sign Harper, would they then finally tear down by trading Mad Max? And if you’re the Yankees do you empty the farm to get him? Finally wouldn’t he be the Yankees answer to the Chris Sale trade?

I seriously doubt the Nationals would rebuild even if Bryce Harper leaves. They still have a really good core! They’d go into next season with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg fronting the rotation and Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner anchoring the lineup. Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and top prospect Victor Robles could all be factors as well. The American League is top and bottom heavy. There are superpowers and a bunch of awful teams. The National League has more top-to-bottom mediocrity. Even if they can’t beat out the Braves for the NL East title, Washington should be able to contend with the Cardinals and Phillies and Rockies for a wildcard spot next year.

Hypothetically though, if the Nationals did decide to rebuild, of course the Yankees should go after Scherzer. He is one of the top five pitchers in the world and the Yankees should always be in on guys like that. Scherzer turns 35 in July but, not only is he not slowing down, he might be better than ever right now. This past season might’ve been the best of his career. I have no concerns whatsoever about him succeeding in the AL East either. His stuff plays anywhere. Would the Nationals do this without getting Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres in return? Probably not. But Scherzer is one of the few players in the game you consider parting with one of those guys to acquire.

Mike asks: I thought it was interesting to see limiting the use of openers in this article as a change that’s being discussed for next year. Why would MLB want to shut this down? I thought it was fun to watch.

Because MLB is afraid of change, mostly. No sport is as steeped in tradition as baseball. I don’t necessarily agree openers are fun to watch — the string of pitching changes can get old quick — but I do think the strategy is brilliant. Use a good reliever to retire the top of the order before letting the long guy throw four or five innings while only facing the 1-2-3 hitters once. It’s smart. And, obviously, it worked quite well this past season.

How would MLB limit openers anyway? Force the starting pitcher to throw at least three innings or something like that? What if the dude gets rocked? I’m sure MLB will come up with something. I said this the other day, I am against anything that limits creativity. Let teams try new things. Imagine any other industry in the world being as opposed to innovation as MLB. The game evolves. Embrace the change. Cool things tend to happen when people are given the freedom to be creative.

Joe asks: With a new CF likely making Cano a 1B/DH in Seattle, could a bad contract swap for Ellsbury be feasible? Say Ellsbury plus a decent prospect (Adams/Roansy type)?

Jacoby Ellsbury for Robinson Cano has to be the most asked question in RAB mailbag history, hands down. I don’t think it’s even close. We have to get two or three Ellsbury-for-Cano questions a month, easy. Anyway, I am a firm no on Ellsbury-for-Cano. Ellsbury is pretty much useless, but it’s two years and $47M vs. five years and $120M. Cano is still really good, the guy did hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) this past season, but he just turned 36 and chances are those five years remaining on his contract will be decline years, potentially heavy decline years. They are exactly the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they limited their offer to seven years back in the day. I greatly prefer the bad contract that ends sooner, especially when we’re talking about two years vs. five years. Just get it over with already, you know? Love Robbie, he’s forever cool with me, but I feel like there’s limited upside and a ton of downside associated with picking him up at this point of his career.

Dennis asks: What do you think of Edwin Diaz is a trade target? Seattle is “re-tooling” and an elite closer doesn’t exactly fit the mold of that direction. Yanks have a ton of prospect capital to help kickstart that rebuild/retool and Diaz is great and has 3 or 4 years of Team Control.

Diaz is awesome — he’s better than awesome, he’s one of the top five relievers in the world right now — and the Yankees should be in on him. He’s only 24, he has four years of control remaining, and he threw 73.1 innings with a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 124 strikeouts and 17 walks this past season. That’s a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His stuff is electric in every sense of the term:

Diaz is young enough and dominant enough and under control long enough that every team will kick the tires. Contenders want him because he can help them win now and rebuilders want him because he can accelerate things and help them win later. Relievers are volatile has hell, for sure, but relievers as good as Diaz and under control as long as Diaz will cost a ton to acquire. More than the Yankees got for Andrew Miller, I’d say. But yeah, I’d take this dude on the Yankees no questions asked.

Bill asks: Why is Joey Wendle a Rookie WAR leader? Doesn’t this show a glaring weakness in WAR?

Wendle did hit .300/.354/.435 (116 wRC+) this season, you know. That’s not too far behind Gleyber (120 wRC+). If anything, it reinforces that WAR overrates multi-position guys to some degree. Wendle played second, short, third, left, and right this season. I don’t think it’s crazy that a good defender with Wendle’s offensive numbers out-WAR-ed Torres and Andujar at all. That said, Wendle turns 29 in April. Not counting guys from Japan and Cuba (and Korea), he’s the oldest player to get Rookie of the Year votes in at least a decade. This might’ve been his career year. I’d take Torres and Andujar over Wendle the next five years without a second thought. In 2018, it’s not unreasonable to argue Wendle was more valuable than those two because he was above-average offensively and far better defensively.

Eric asks: How many WAR does a 2018 Miguel Andujar earn if he’s a league-average defensive 3B? 1B? LF? DH?

Fun question! Position player WAR has several components. Offense, defense, and baserunning are straightforward. There’s also a positional adjustment, because some positions are more difficult than others. A 110 wRC+ shortstop is more valuable than a 110 wRC+ first baseman, for example. There’s also a (small) league adjustment, and a (large) adjustment that allows us to compare our player to a replacement level player rather than a league average player. Add all that together, divide by the runs-per-win factor, and you get WAR.

Here is our hypothetical league average defending Andujar at other positions. The only thing that changes across positions is the positional adjustment. Everything else stays the same.

	Offense	Defense	Baserunning	Position	League	Rep. Lvl	Runs/Win	WAR
Actual 2018	+20.3	-16	+1	+0.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+2.7
at C	+20.3	0	+1	+12.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+5.5
at 1B	+20.3	0	+1	-12.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+3.0
at 2B, 3B, CF	+20.3	0	+1	+2.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+4.5
at SS	+20.3	0	+1	+7.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+5.0
at LF, RF	+20.3	0	+1	-7.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+3.5
at DH	+20.3	0	+1	-17.5	+1.8	+18.1	9.714	+2.4

The league adjustment, replacement level adjustment, and runs-per-win factor fluctuate each season the same way the league batting average fluctuates. They stay in the same ballpark but move a little in either direction. Like everyone else, Andujar would be most valuable behind the plate, then at short, then at third and the other two up-the-middle positions, then in the outfield corners, then at first base, then at DH. I should note that his 2018 positional adjustment was +0.5 rather than the full +2.5 for third base because he did DH some, and that takes a bite out of his positional value.

Derek asks: Can you re-structure contracts if the player and ownership agrees to it? I’m thinking of a Joey Votto trade scenario where you shorten the 5yr/125 remaining on the contract to 3/105. His power has diminished but he has elite contact skills, is a lefty, and is an OBP machine.

Never happening. Not a million years. Why would Votto give up $20M? Given the current free agent climate, giving up $20M to become a free agent two years earlier probably isn’t worth it for him. Not when he’ll be 38 in three years. Also, the MLBPA would flip. Ultimately, it’s not up to them, but they would lean on Votto hard. Remember when Alex Rodriguez was supposed to get traded to the Red Sox back in the day? That fell through because his contract was going to be restructured in such a way that lowered its present day value, and the union got involved. It’s one thing for a free agent to take less money to go to a specific team. It’s another for a player to reduce the value of his existing contract. That is not a precedent the MLBPA wants to set. Is it possible to restructure a contract as laid out in the question? Yes, it is. But there would be hell to pay.

Marc asks: In reading the article on Kluber as a trade candidate, it got me thinking: would the Indians listen to an offer for Kluber AND Carrasco if the Yanks offered Severino and Andujar plus maybe Gray and another piece. It lets them keep Torres and upgrade the rotation, while allowing Cleveland to compete next year. Of course, my trade proposal sucks.

I’m sure the Indians would listen if the Yankees put Andujar and Luis Severino on the table. (I don’t think Sonny Gray would move the needle much.) Cleveland would trade two years of Carlos Carrasco and three years of Corey Kluber for four years of Severino and five of Andujar. Ideally, the Yankees would add Carrasco and Kluber to Severino, not use one to replace him, but I don’t think building a package for those two around Severino would be crazy. What happens at third base? Who knows. The rotation would be upgraded though, even with Severino subtracted out, because Carrasco and Kluber are just as good as him if not better. Needless to say, I would not expect something like this to happen.

Adam asks: Would a framework around Andujar for Franchy Cordero work? Would free Hicks up for a trade for pitching, and then you can sign Machado.

Franchy is fun because he can do things like this:

I wouldn’t trade Andujar for him though. No way. The Yankees don’t need another high strikeout (39.1 K% in MLB and 28.3 K% in Triple-A) corner outfielder. I think Andujar will be the better hitter going forward and the more valuable player overall, even factoring in his defensive flaws (Franchy’s not exactly a Gold Glover himself). Signing Manny Machado and trading Andujar is an option for sure. I’d prefer someone better than Cordero though, especially if the next step is trading Aaron Hicks. I feel like you can find Franchy level production (with less risk) in free agency.

Dave asks: Do you think the Yankees will take a look at Yangervis Solarte as a fill in/utility guy if the Jays non-tender him. Switch hitter who can play multiple positions with some pop in the bat?

I don’t think so. It seems the clock has struck midnight on Solarte. He hit .226/.277/.378 (77 wRC+) this year and was sub-replacement level at -1 WAR. The versatility doesn’t help much when you’re not a good defender anywhere, which is what the defensive stats (and the eye test) say for Solarte. The Blue Jays declined his $5.5M option a few weeks ago and MLBTR projects a $5.9M salary through arbitration. Toronto didn’t decline the option only to pay him a higher salary through arbitration. Solarte’s getting non-tendered at the deadline in two weeks. A minor league contract? Sure. I definitely wouldn’t pencil him in as a Didi Gregorius replacement though.

There are 12 questions and eleven answers in this week’s mailbag. Remember to send all your mailbag related correspondence to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Chuck asks: Don’t hear much about Jameson Taillon. Any chance we could pry him away from the Pirates?

I don’t get the sense the Pirates are willing to trade Taillon, who is very good and under team control through 2022, but that is the kind of pitcher the Yankees should be targeting. Taillon, 26, had a 3.20 ERA (3.46 FIP) with good strikeout (22.8%), walk (5.9%), and ground ball (46.2%) rates in 191 innings this year. His four-seam fastball spin rate is comfortably above-average and he seems like a good candidate for the “hey, stop throwing so many sinkers” plan the Astros implemented with ex-Pirates Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton.

Pittsburgh traded (a lot) for Chris Archer at the deadline and they have Taillon and the sneaky good Trevor Williams under control for a while, so they have the makings of a good rotation front three. They traded Cole last year because he was getting expensive and they knew they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him long-term. The Pirates aren’t at that point with Taillon yet. They’re probably two years away from that point, really. I love the idea though. Taillon seems like a great target and, if the Pirates did make him available, I think you put Miguel Andujar on the table. Love the kid, but you have to give to get. I just don’t think Pittsburgh is ready to move Taillon yet.

Ryan asks: Who is this year’s Headley/Castro candidate of contract you’d like to shed without concerns of return? Or was that a rare case of AAA bursting at the seams?

I wouldn’t say I was eager to dump Starlin Castro’s contract last year. He’s an average player and useful, but also pretty replaceable, and if they could use him to get someone better, they should. And they did. Starlin wasn’t an albatross though. Anyway, the Yankees don’t really have that moveable bad contract player this year. The Yankees have six contracts on the books at the moment:

• Giancarlo Stanton: Nine years, $240M remaining
• Aroldis Chapman: Three years, $51.6M remaining
• Jacoby Ellsbury: Two years, $47.3M remaining
• Masahiro Tanaka: Two years, $45M remaining
• CC Sabathia: One year, $8M
• Brett Gardner: One year, $7.5M

Everyone wants the Yankees to move Ellsbury but I can’t see that happening at this point. Move Tanaka or Chapman? Eh. The Yankees need starters. Trade Tanaka and you wind up reinvesting that money in another starter who might not be as good as Tanaka. I suppose the Yankees could trade Chapman for a young pitcher, then sign a pricey closer to replace him. Can’t see it though. Chapman has a no-trade clause. Aside from Ellsbury, the Yankees don’t have any real bad contracts on the books. Perhaps that’ll change next year after they sign some free agents this winter.

Dan asks: Is it time to go full Evil Empire and sign both Harper and Machado? Then trade for deGrom. I think an offer that starts with Andujar, Frazier and Sheffield gets the Mets to listen. What do you think?

Man, the Yankees really should. How often do you get a chance to acquire a 26-year-old star like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado for nothing but cash (and a draft pick and international bonus money)? Basically never. This offseason there’s a chance to get two guys like that. It’ll never ever ever happen, but, if you were ever going to make a case for the Yankees going full Evil Empire and signing everyone, this is the offseason to do it. Sign Harper and sign Machado. And, if you do that, doesn’t it at least create the option of an Aaron Judge for pitching trade? Maybe build a package for both Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco around Judge? Not saying I’d do it! I’m just saying it’d open up the possibility.

Dan asks: What are your thoughts on a reunion with Brian McCann? Great clubhouse influence, lefty with power. Still a good defender. He could be a nice, cheap get.

This question was sent in before the news of Gary Sanchez’s shoulder surgery broke. I had McCann on my radar for my offseason plan, but, ultimately, I think he’s going to wind up with a starting job elsewhere. Even after a down season in which he hit .212/.301/.339 (82 wRC+) in 216 plate appearances around knee surgery, McCann’s track record is long enough that I think some team signs him to start. The Braves are supposedly looking for someone to share time with the right-handed hitting Tyler Flowers. McCann is from the area and he still lives there. Seems like a perfect for him, no? I love the idea of signing McCann. He’d give the team a nice safety net should Sanchez not be ready for Opening Day and he’d be a quality backup once Sanchez is healthy. I am all for it. I just think another team is going to give him starter money and starting catcher playing time.

Douglas asks (short version): What about Justin Bour? I know Bour wasn’t good last season with the Phillies but he was good as recently as 2017, would add left handed power to the line-up, would be a pick-up for 2 seasons and is projected to get around $5 million in arbitration, leaving plenty of money to chase Machado, Corbin, Harper, etc.

Hard pass on trading for Bour. Know why? Because the Phillies are almost certainly going to non-tender him at the end of the month. MLBTR projects a $5.2M salary next year and that is way too much for a first base only bench bat. If anything, the Phillies will non-tender him and re-sign him at a lower salary. Matt Adams was projected to made $4.6M last year and he can play (“play”) the outfield in addition to first base. If he got non-tendered, Bour is getting non-tendered. That’s why the Phillies got him so cheap in the first place. Everyone knew he was getting non-tendered after the season. The Marlins had no leverage. Bour would be fine as a first base pickup. Not great, not terrible. Just fine. If the Yankees can sign him and have him compete for the job with Greg Bird and Luke Voit, great. Do it. But don’t trade for him. Just wait a few weeks and he’ll be available for nothing but money.

Dom asks: One reason, to many, to not hand out mega-contracts to Harper/Machado is because it will leave less money to pay homegrown players when they are FAs. But, doesn’t it make more sense to pay Harper/Machado now, resulting in having more prime players under control for this window of contention, than eventually signing the homegrown guys when they’re older and not in their prime anymore?

Yuuup. Isn’t this one of the benefits of having productive young players? In addition to what they give you on the field, they’re also cheap and allow you to spend elsewhere. That’s one reason I despise the luxury tax plan. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino were all in their pre-arbitration years this past season. You only get so many years of those guys making six figures! Rather than take advantage, the Yankees capped their spending. Now Severino is arbitration-eligible and Judge and Sanchez will be in 2020. They’re still going to make far below what they’re worth, but the savings aren’t as great. This is the Yankees’ best chance to win a World Series. Right now. In 2018, 2019, and maybe 2020. Not four or five years from now. Right now, when their core guys are in their primes and cheap, like Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada were in the late-1990s. Windows close. Fast. At a time when the Yankees should be putting every last resource into winning a championship, they’re holding back.

Steve asks: So thoughts on Kipnis for fill in 2B? I know he had a down offensive season but he’d be a lefty who wouldn’t close much in lux tax, plays decent defense and think the Indians would be more open about moving his contract then say Kluber, etc.

Jason Kipnis has been really bad the last two years. Like, sneaky bad. I knew he didn’t put up numbers like he did in his prime, but he’s been even worse than I realized. Kipnis hit .232/.291/.414 (81 wRC+) last year and .230/.315/.389 (89 wRC+) this year. Yeesh. And he has $17M coming to him next season (his luxury tax hit is only $8.75M) assuming his 2020 option is bought out. I know Kipnis is a left-handed hitter and he might benefit from the short porch (plus the Yankees need left-handed hitters), and I know he can play the outfield too, but he’s been pretty bad two years running now. Can’t you sign Jed Lowrie at a similar luxury tax number and expect more production? Kipnis is a maybe, if anything. There’s no reason to think he’s gong anywhere right now. If some things fall through in free agency, the Yankees could think more seriously about Kipnis later in the offseason.

Juan asks: It certainly feels to me like there’s a personality element to Cashman’s Sonny Gray comments. Greg Bird was equally awful this season after being not good the previous year, but the Yankees still speak of him with a positive outlook. What do you think happened with Gray? Why can’t it be repaired?

Jonathan asks: What do you think is the benefit of Cashman being so candid about wanting to trade Gray? Don’t you think this diminishes his value, considering he’s giving no option to hold on to him if he doesn’t get enough in return? I don’t get why any GM would ever say this, really. What gives?

Going to lump these two questions together. It is pretty weird, isn’t it? It seems like Brian Cashman is going above and beyond to make it known not only that Sonny Gray is available, but also that he’s not wanted. “I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” he said the other day. That’s pretty harsh! Cashman is always quick to admit some players can play in New York and other can’t, but very rarely does he single someone out like this. I can’t ever remember it happening.

I sensed a lot of frustration with Gray this year. More than the usual “he’s not pitching well” frustration because we go that with guys every year. Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, and Cashman all seemed frustrated with Gray. Maybe it was his preparation? His attitude? Whatever. Cashman has chosen to express that frustration this offseason and, honestly, I think everyone knew it existed. Instead of lying about it, he’s being honest. I don’t think Cashman would do it until he was certain he could get a good deal for Gray. He wouldn’t go out there and crush the guy if his market was non-existent. Supposedly there’s a good amount of interest. Teams still want Sonny despite this year’s performance and despite the GM taking the guy’s head off every chance he gets.

Neil asks: Any trades headlining Gleyber for a young controllable pitcher that you would consider and might make sense for both teams? (Yeah, I know, pitchers break….)

The one that immediately jumped to mind is Walker Buehler. Unless the Dodgers think Max Muncy at second base is a viable long-term strategy (nah), they need a second baseman. Hell, they might need a shortstop. Corey Seager is coming back from Tommy John surgery and it’s always been a bit unclear how long he’ll stay at short anyway because he’s so big (6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.). The Dodgers have a need for a middle infielder.

Buehler was the most impressive young pitcher I saw this past season and it’s not even close. It was Buehler (big gap) Jack Flaherty (enormous gap) everyone else. Buehler threw 137.1 innings with a 2.62 ERA (3.04 FIP) with excellent strikeout (27.9%), walk (6.8%), and ground ball (50.0%) numbers this year, and he was real good in the postseason too. The stuff is electric.

I feel like both teams would say no to Gleyber-for-Buehler. The Yankees will want to keep their budding star middle infielder and the Dodgers will want to keep their homegrown budding ace. But that’s the idea. If you’re going to trade Torres, you have to get a Buehler type (or a Flaherty type) back. The Mets wouldn’t be unreasonable to ask for Torres in a Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard trade, and of course the Phillies wouldn’t give up Aaron Nola without getting Gleyber. There are a few pitchers out there I’d part with Torres to acquire. Not many though.

Jon asks: Schwarber seems to be a perpetual trade rumor. What would it realistically take to get him and would he improve the team, assuming no Bryce Harper? Could a package centered around Sonny Gray and Jonathan Loaisiga work, since they’re both traded in your offseason plan?

Schwarber makes more sense for the Yankees now than he did back in 2016, when they apparently tried to get him at the deadline. He’s never played first base but he’s going to wind up there eventually, so the Yankees could move him there and have him split time at first and DH, and be the emergency third catcher. They also need a left-handed bat and Schwarber’s pull heavy left-handed swing would fit well in Yankee Stadium.

This past season Schwarber hit .238/.356/.467 (115 wRC+) with 26 homers, and over the last two years he has a .225/.336/.467 (109 wRC+) line in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. That … kinda sucks? For a bat only guy, yeah, it kinda sucks. After all that hype and all those rejected trades, that’s it? Schwarber is young (26 in March) and cheap (projected $3.1M in 2019) and there’s always a chance he’ll improve, for sure. I don’t know that Gray and Loaisiga will get it done — Theo Epstein is said to love Schwarber — but I don’t know how much higher I’d go either.

Michael asks: Read recently that MLB will eventually expand, with places like Portland, Charlotte and a location in Mexico as possibilities. But is MLB ignoring the lack of enthusiasm for baseball in Tampa and Miami? What’s the possibility of those two franchises moving to one of the locations being considered for expansion?

I worry about this. MLB is stuck in Miami because that $600M ballpark is only seven years old. Tampa is a different story. The Rays have been trying to get a new ballpark for years now — the most recent chatter has them moving to a park on the other side of the bay in Ybor City — but can baseball work there? Doesn’t MLB have to answer that question before building a new park? Florida would seem to be the perfect place for baseball. It’s warm all year and there are a ton of players from the state, plus there are people from all over Latin America as well. It seems like it should work. It hasn’t. There are other baseball hungry markets out there. I would hope MLB would at least consider relocation before breaking ground another new park that will sit half empty 81 times a year.

We’ve got ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Good mailbag, I think. Glad it’s the offseason and we finally have some more things to talk about it. I’m not sure how many more questions I could answer about Miguel Andujar’s ultimate position before going crazy. Anyway, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the mailbag email address. Fire away.

Phil asks: Marwin Gonzalez. The perfect FA match. He can play 2B (with Gleyber at SS) until they figure out the Didi situation. He’s the super-utility starter they hoped Wade would become. And he won’t cost a TON. 1) Am I right, or am I RIGHT? 2) What do you think the damage will be in years/dollars? Thanks.

Gonzalez is one of those free agents who’s a good fit for every team because he’s so versatile. He can play all four infield positions — and play them well, which is kinda important — as well as left field. I don’t think I would ever expect him to hit .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) like he did in 2017 again. That seems like one of those perfectly timed career years teams need to win a World Series. Since 2014, Gonzalez has been a 100-110 wRC+ guy with 12-15 homers annually aside from that 2017 season, which is pretty good. Switch-hitter who takes walks and will sock one out of the park every so often while playing all over the field? That guy fits every team.

As for the cost, man, I don’t know. I feel like it’s impossible to predict free agent contracts this offseason because everything was so wacky last offseason. Gonzalez turns 30 in March, so he’s not old. I think his asking price starts at Ben Zobrist’s contract (four years and $56M). Gonzalez is five (!) years younger now than Zobrist was when he hit free agency, though his track record isn’t as good or as long. In a normal free agent climate, four years and $56M would be reasonable in my opinion. In this free agent climate? Who knows.

Ian asks: I understand he *should* retire a Giant, but the fact remains that SF has not extended Bumgarner yet, he’s set to become a free agent next year at the age of 30. Am I crazy for thinking he might be available? Why would they wait for him to get closer to FA before extending him if they have no intention of letting him go? It’s not like they’ll be in ‘win now’ mode in 2019, and I’d gladly take a shot at 30 year old MadBum. 30 is older, but it’s not that old to where I’d pass on him.

The Giants don’t have a general manager or baseball operations head right now. GM Bobby Evans was let go and longtime executive Brian Sabean is moving from president of baseball operations into a less demanding role. I assume the decision to trade or extend Madison Bumgarner will wait until the team has a new front office in place. Either that or ownership will step in and give him that quote-unquote lifetime contract.

I would happily take on one year of Bumgarner. Bring him aboard and see how the season plays out before deciding whether to sign him long-term. If the Giants do decide to trade him, they should do it sooner rather than later. Trading him now nets the best possible return. Look at Manny Machado. Look what the Orioles got for him compared to what they could’ve gotten last winter. A full season of Bumgarner is much more valuable than two months of Bumgarner at the deadline, plus there’s always injury risk to consider.

The Yankees should absolutely check in on Bumgarner if the Giants decide to move him. They should do more than check in, really. They should pursue him aggressively. I don’t think putting Justus Sheffield in the trade would be unreasonable either, even for only one year of Bumgarner. He’s great and you have to pay to get great. The Giants presumably have to get their front office in place before any of this happens. I wonder if this means the free agent pitching market will be held up until San Francisco makes their intentions with Bumgarner clear?

Douglas asks: Short and sweet: do you think Keuchel would part with majestic beard of his to become a Yankee or would that be a sticking point? Is it time to revise the facial hair policy of the Yankees–goatees and well-groomed beards allowed? Seems like the thing to do upon leaving the Yankees is grow a beard.

Getting rid of the facial hair policy is long overdue. It is pointless. Baseball players are not working class Average Joes. Lots of folks would lose their job if they showed up to work with a baseball player beard. Baseball players don’t live in the same world as most folks though. Baseball is the entertainment business, first and foremost. Part of that entertainment is letting players be themselves and show some personality. There are a lot of ugly beards out there, but, if a player wants an ugly beard, let him have an ugly beard. I see no problem with this.

As for Dallas Keuchel, if he refuses to sign with the Yankees because of the facial hair policy, so be it. I’m not all that eager to sign him anyway. His strikeout (17.5%) and ground ball (53.7%) dropped considerably from last year (21.4% and 66.8%), and an upper-80s sinker guy is not really my cup of tea. Keuchel is 30 and he pitches like I want a 35 or 36-year-old to pitch after he loses his stuff. I don’t want to invest big money in a guy who might be sitting mid-80s by year three of a long-term deal, especially given the performance decline we saw this year.

Patrick asks: Would you consider a trade for Miguel Cabrera if the medicals check out? Send over Ellsbury and maybe a lower level minor league arm or two and the Tigers send Cabrera and cash to make the financials a wash. Cabrera could potentially be much more useful at 1b.

Nope. There are five years and $154M (!) remaining on Cabrera’s contract. Send over Jacoby Ellsbury to offset salary and you’re still taking on $107M for a guy who’s starting to break down physically (played 445 of 648 possible games the last four years) and has seen his performance slip. Cabrera’s an all-time great who should waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot when the time comes. We’re talking about taking on what figure to be heavy decline years though, and chances are he’ll be relegated to DH before long just to keep his body in one piece. How much would the Tigers have to pay down to make this worthwhile? Turn him into a $10M a year player? Even that doesn’t excite me. The time to get Miggy was ten years ago when he was in his prime and the Marlins put him on the market. Trade for him now and you’re asking for trouble. This feels like an old Yankees move.

James asks: Not a question just an observation: Your continual comparison of pitchers ERA with Sanchez and Romine behind the plate fails to take into account that Romine caught the majority of Gray’s starts. Near the end of the season I calculated the staff ERA difference and, if I recall correctly, removing Gray from the equation led to nearly similar staff ERA’s for both catchers.

How many more hoops do we have to jump through to make Austin Romine look good? Fine. If we remove Gray from Romine’s numbers, it’s still a 3.95 ERA. The pitching staff had a 3.50 ERA with Sanchez. It was a 3.38 ERA when we remove Gray, which is only fair, because we did it for Romine. And wasn’t Romine supposed to be the Sonny Gray whisperer anyway? I thought he needed his personal catcher to pitch well?

Catcher ERA is dumb as hell and should never ever be used in a serious analysis. It assigns way too much credit to the catcher. At the end of the day, all the catcher can do is put down the signs. The pitcher still has to execute. Sonny has good stuff and I have no reason to doubt the team’s game-planning. He just doesn’t execute. Gray leaves a lot of mistakes out over the plate no matter who’s catching. Just avoid catcher ERA all together. I only use it to troll the Cult of Romine™.

Luke asks: First off, Steve Pearce? Come on! I can’t find it anywhere, but I can’t help to believe that Price had to have led the Sox in WAR for the World Series. Which players were the best players by WAR in the World Series? Is there a better way to value players (pitchers versus hitters) in general?

As far as I know, no one calculates postseason WAR. That seems like it would be tough to do. You’d have to recalculate replacement level for postseason rosters. We do have postseason win probability and championship probability added though. Here are the 2018 World Series leaders:

---

I personally would’ve voted for Price — two very good starts, including one in the clincher on short rest, with a relief appearance mixed it? that gets my vote — but Pearce was obviously a defensible choice. If you’re interested, here are the Yankees’ postseason leaders in CPA by round. Ralph Terry is the all-time postseason CPA leader (Yankees or otherwise) with +0.994 in the 1962 World Series.

Derek asks: If Clayton Kershaw opts out, how willing would the Yankees be to signing him? Would you pay the steep price? Personally, I’m terrified of it becoming a dead money contract and the postseason results haven’t been there. His fastball has also declined from 95 to 91 and his whiff percentages are way down.

The fact Kershaw and the Dodgers agreed to push his opt-out back from Wednesday to today is a pretty good indication they’re working on an extension. I’m guessing it’ll be announced later today. Maybe they’ll add two years on top of the two years remaining on his contract? We’ll find out. And, just to toot my own horn, I said I expected Kershaw to leverage his opt-out into an extension without actually opting out when we did our CBS round table.

Anyway, in a hypothetical world where Kershaw opts out, yeah, I’d want the Yankees to look into him. There are legitimate concerns about Kershaw. No doubt. He’s had back trouble three years running now and his underlying performance (and velocity) has slipped. Kershaw’s also only one year older than Patrick Corbin and still very good. Hurt and declining Kershaw had a 2.73 ERA (3.19 FIP) this year. He’s starting from such a high baseline that he’ll still be really good even when factoring in decline. I’m not saying I’d go all out to sign him. But if we’re talking Kershaw at three years and $100M vs. Corbin at five years and $100M, I’d probably go with Kershaw.

Dave asks: Thoughts on Joe Mauer for 1st base next year – good contact, high on base, plus good defense, and a low strikeout total (plus he’s a lefty). Always loved the guy and as a stop-gap player on a cheaper deal might be a very good fit.

I like the idea of Mauer and I had him on my list of potential first base trade targets last year, but I never wrote it up anywhere because I don’t think he’ll actually leave the Twins. He’s a born and raised Minneapolis guy and I don’t think he went through with that emotional final pitch farewell this year …

… only to sign with another team this offseason. Seems to me it’s either retirement or the Twins with retirement in the lead. (MLB.com even cooked up a career highlights video already.) In theory, yeah, I think Mauer would be a real good fit as a high on-base lefty contact guy. He has no power, but that’s fine. The Yankees have power to spare. If Mauer’s willing to leave Minnesota and sign a cheap one-year deal, yeah, the Yankees should check in. I don’t think he’s leaving the Twins for another team though. It’s the Twins or retirement.

Hector asks: How many games did the Yanks have Sanchez, Torres, Didi, Stanton, Judge and Hicks on the lineup? I bet it is less than 50. Yanks just need a little more luck to go their way in 2019. I still believe in their overall talent.

I count 31 games with Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks all in the lineup this year, or 19% of the regular season. Fewer than one out of every five games. I mean, the talent is obviously there. The Yankees do have replace Gregorius now, but there’s a strong core in place already, and it’ll be there again next year. I just don’t like the “we’ll be better next year with good health” line of thinking. Injuries are part of the game. Every team has to deal with them. The Yankees dealt with them better than most teams this year — that’s why they won 100 games while playing their A+ lineup less than 20% of the time — and they’ll have to deal with injuries again next year. That’s baseball.

Garrett asks: The Pirates just declined Josh Harrison’s option. The Yankees have always been linked to him. Could you see them signing him to play 2nd with Torres moving to SS and moving into a utility role when Didi returns? What would it take?

Yeah, I think Harrison is someone to keep an eye on. The Yankees have been connected to him several times over the years, though I always got the sense they were kinda lukewarm on him and weren’t willing to go all out to get him. Now that he’s available for just cash, it makes more sense to get involved. That said, Harrison wasn’t very good last year (.250/.293/.363 and 78 wRC+) and he’s been a sub-100 wRC+/sub-1.5 WAR player in three of the last four years. Maybe he can improve going forward. I’m not sure how much I’d willing to bet on that. I think the Yankees see Harrison as more of a fallback plan on the middle infield rather than Plan A.

There are ten questions in this week’s mailbag. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you should send all your mailbag questions each week. I’ll answer as many as I can stomach. (I kid, I kid.)

John asks: Do you think the Brewers would make Travis Shaw available? He fits the Yankees great as he’s a good fielding third baseman with left-handed power who walks a lot. Also good first baseman and decent at second. He’s way cheaper than Machado. If Brewers are still interested in Sonny Gray, plus? What do you think gets this done?

Shaw’s turned into a much better defensive third baseman than I think anyone expected. The scouts and statheads thought he’d be average at best. Instead, the numbers have him comfortably above-average, so much so that the Brewers played him at second base following the Mike Moustakas trade. Moustakas is a free agent this winter and I’ve been assuming the plan is to put Shaw back at third and Jonathan Schoop at second next year.

Anyway, Shaw turns 29 in April and he’s under team control another three seasons, and he hit .241/.345/.480 (119 wRC+) with 32 homers and an 18.4% strikeout rate this season. He’d be a real nice get for the Yankees. Put him at third, at first, whatever. Will the Brewers trade him? They just had the best record in the National League and went to the NLCS, and they’re going to try to win again next year. If they are open to trading him, I would think Sonny Gray would be the second piece in a trade, not the headliner. If it were Gray and someone like Chance Adams, I’d do that in a heartbeat and the Yankees would as well. The non-Gray portion of the package might have to be significant.

Dan asks: Is it possible that some of these free agent players might not get as much money or years as we are all assuming? Which teams are going to pay Harper or Machado 300 plus million? A lot of teams are at the top of their payroll limits, not contending, or are smaller market teams that probably can’t swing a contract like that.

Every team can afford to pay Bryce Harper or Manny Machado north of $30M a year. Every single one. MLB teams are very good at convincing fans they don’t have as much as money as they really do. Harper and Machado are going to have, among others, the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers after them. Can’t rule out the Red Sox, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Giants, and Mariners either. Those two are not normal free agents. They are on the very short list of the best players in the world and they’re both only 26 years old. It is not often a prime-aged superstar hits the open market. I could see this argument for a second tier free agent like Patrick Corbin (will any team really give him $120M?) or Dallas Keuchel. Harper and Machado? Nah. They’re special cases. I expect both to break Giancarlo Stanton’s record for guaranteed money (with some opt-outs thrown in).

Hugo asks: Any chance the Yankees could move Andujar to second? Torres as a SS and then sign a 3B until DD returns.

I can’t see it. Miguel Andujar does play on the right side of the infield as part of the shift, but I don’t think he could do it full-time. The biggest knock on him defensively is his range, so moving him to the middle infield seems like a recipe for disaster. I suppose the Yankees could try it in Spring Training. What’s the worst that could happen? *suddenly remembers Rob Refnsyder taking grounders to the face when the Yankees tried him at third* It just doesn’t seem to me that Andujar has the skills for the middle infield. His range is limited and I have no idea how he’d handle the double play pivot. If the Yankees are going to move Andujar off third base, a move down the defensive difficulty spectrum to first base or the corner outfield seems most likely.

Douglas asks (short version): Given how often the Yankees were down to a 3 man bench in recent years and every team’s love for a Ben Zobrist-type player, do you think we’ll eventually see the day where backup catchers are asked to play at least one position in addition to catcher? I know in recent years, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have faked first base but do you think we’ll eventually get beyond that?

Teams could try, but most catchers aren’t mobile enough to play other positions besides first base. Imagine watching some of these dudes try to chase down balls in the outfield gap? Goodness. Willson Contreras has played some left field and Austin Barnes has played some second base, though they’re really bad at it. Tony Wolters has also played some middle infield for the Rockies. The best example of this “backup catcher who can play other positions” concept might be Isiah Kiner-Falefa with the Rangers. He came up through the minors as a utility infielder who dabbled behind the plate, and this year he played at least 20 games at catcher, second base, and third base for Texas. Teams are always looking to increase versatility and we could see an increased effort to develop catcher capable utility guys. It’s just really hard to play the position well though. Guys who are good enough to catch tend to stick at the position because it’s very hard to fill and clubs want as many options there as possible.

John asks: If the idea is to go with a glove first, no bat SS, why not Kyle Holder?

The Yankees are trying to win and they need to do better than Holder. He’s a stud defensively, he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now and be very good at it, but I don’t think the bat is close to ready. Holder hit .257/.317/.350 (88 wRC+) in 48 games at High-A and Double-A around injuries this year. Put him in the big leagues next year and his slash line probably starts with 2s across the board. (For what it’s worth, PECOTA projected Holder as a true talent .234/.270/.360 big league hitter in 2018.) I do expect the Yankees to put Holder on the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this winter, but if the Yankees are going all-glove/no-bat at short next year, it seems to me the better move would be to re-sign Adeiny Hechavarria or sign Jose Iglesias, get as good (likely better) production at a low cost, and let Holder continue his development at the appropriate minor league level.

Bertin asks: How much more value does two years of Marcus Stroman have than one year of Sonny Gray? As bad as Gray was in 2018, Stroman was even worse, but where Stroman’s problems can be attributed to his recovery from injury, Gray appears to have had a complete and total mental meltdown.

Stroman had a 5.54 ERA (3.91 FIP) with his typically excellent ground ball rate (62.1%) in 102.1 innings around shoulder trouble this year. His strikeout rate (17.2%) was a career low and his walk rate (8.0%) was a career high, though they weren’t that far out of line with his career norms. I’d definitely bet on Stroman rebounding next year before Gray. A Yankees-Blue Jays trade would be complicated — this wouldn’t be a non-contender trading an impending free agent like the J.A. Happ deal — but I really like the idea of buying low on Stroman (he’s short and from Long Island and went to Duke, you know). Could the Yankees build a trade package around Gray? Eh. Hard for me to see why the Blue Jays would trade two years of Stroman for one year of Gray without getting significant secondary pieces as well.

Seth asks: Am I crazy to think that Gio Urshela would be a perfect Andujar defensive replacement/backup infielder? Great defender and he actually hit in Triple-A with Scranton.

Well, Urshela hit well with Scranton (129 wRC+), but his track record suggests he’s nothing more than a Quad-A hitter. Which is fine for a bench player, I think. I wouldn’t want him playing everyday even with his glove. As a bench guy though? It could work. If the Yankees shift Gleyber Torres to shortstop and replace Didi Gregorius with a second baseman, they’d need a shortstop capable infielder on the bench. Urshela can do that. He’s played a bunch of shortstop over the years. I don’t know that I’d call him (or anyone, really) the perfect backup infielder, but Urshela could work in that role, sure.

Matthew asks: With talks about the Yankees going after Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, and Sabathia probably coming back, that leaves 3 lefties in the rotation. Not to mention Montgomery at some point. How many lefties do you really think we will have. Meaning, do the Yanks sign Corbin and Happ and Sabathia, or just 2 out of 3. Does it even matter?

I wouldn’t worry about it at all. Get good pitchers regardless of handedness. Besides, the Yankees need quality lefties in their rotation to (hopefully) limit the damage caused by the short porch. The history of the Yankees is littered with dominant lefty starters. Whitey Field, Ron Guidry, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, etc. If the Yankees have three or four lefties in the rotation at some point, so be it. Not worried at all. It’s not like Patrick Corbin (tons of sliders), Happ (tons of fastballs), Sabathia (cutters and sliders), and Jordan Montgomery (kitchen sink) are similar in style. They just throw with the same hand. Not worried about #toomanylefties at all.

Zachary asks: Looking to the off-season, it would appear the Indians could use a solid regular outfielder, while the Yankees could be in the market for pitching. Judge and Stanton aren’t going anywhere, and Frazier was already dealt from Cleveland, but would Cleveland have interest in Hicks? What would a deal look like given Hick’s looming free agency?

I am certain the Indians would have interest in Aaron Hicks. I am certain a lot of teams would have interest in Aaron Hicks. Switch-hitting center fielders with power and on-base ability and above-average defense are incredibly valuable. The Indians don’t have a clearly defined center fielder right now (Bradley Zimmer had major shoulder surgery in July to treat an injury initially suffered on a play at Yankee Stadium) and their window is starting to close. They have to win right now and Hicks would improve their chances of winning the 2019 World Series considerably.

The Indians have five quality starting pitchers in place for next season (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber) and the Yankees should start any conversation with those dudes. Obviously Kluber and Carrasco are incredibly unlikely. Bauer’s an insufferable tool, which leaves Clevinger and Bieber. If the Yankees are going to trade Hicks, that’s where they have to start. Ask for the young starting pitcher and find out what needs to be added to get a deal done. Also, shop Hicks around! If the Yankees are open to trading him, they have to canvas the league for the best deal, not focus on the Indians just because they happen to need a center fielder.

Jeff asks: Would the Yankees have had any interest in Alex Cora last offseason? If NYY lost to MIN in the WC game, could/would they have beaten BOS to the punch?

The Yankees never had a chance to interview Cora. Cora was the Astros bench coach last year and he interviewed with the Red Sox on October 15th, the off-day between Games Two and Three of the ALCS, according to Jason Mastrodonato. Boston announced his hiring on October 22nd, the day after Game Seven, so the deal was done before the ALCS even ended. (Yes, Cora was Houston’s bench coach in the World Series even after being named Red Sox manager.)

It’s impossible to say whether the Yankees would’ve had interest in interviewing Cora last winter. Given their list of managerial candidates (largely younger new school types), I think they would’ve expressed interest. Cora’s name had been circulating in “potential future manager” circles for years. He wasn’t a surprise candidate. Cora’s had the golden touch this year. Every move is working and he’s managed circles around everyone (Aaron Boone, A.J. Hinch, Dave Roberts) this postseason. Had the Yankees been knocked out of the postseason earlier, yeah, maybe they could’ve beaten the Red Sox to Cora. We’ll never know for certain though.

We’ve got nine questions in this week’s mailbag. Make sure you send any questions or comments to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Stephen asks: Wouldn’t Scooter Gennett make a great trade target? He would provide some balance to the lineup and allow Gleyber to slide over to SS.

Gennett would be a great trade target. He hit .310/.357/.490 (125 wRC+) with 23 home runs this past season. When he hit .295/.342/.531 (123 wRC+) with 27 homers* last year, it was fair to wonder if he’d ever do it again because there was nothing in his track record to suggest he could be that type of hitter. Well, Gennett did do it again. The 2019 season is his final year of team control, which means one of three things will happen:

1. The Reds will trade him.
2. The Reds will sign him to an extension.
3. The Reds will keep him and lose him for nothing as a free agent.

Don’t sleep on No. 3! That is exactly what happened with Zack Cozart. Cozart hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 home runs and Gold Glove defense at shortstop in 2017, and Cincinnati didn’t trade him or even make him the qualifying offer. They lost him to free agency after the season and did not even get a draft pick in return. I would imagine the Reds learned from the Cozart stuff and won’t repeat it with Gennett, but we’ll see.

Anyway, Gennett has now put together back-to-back strong seasons at the plate and he’s also played some third base and corner outfield in addition to his usual second base. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then move him elsewhere as necessary. He’s a real good fit. The Reds desperately need pitching. The Yankees won’t trade Justus Sheffield for Gennett. Would they take one year of Sonny Gray? Seems unlikely to me. What about some combination of Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, Mike King, Luis Cessa, and Domingo German? Maybe two of the five plus another prospect? Remember, my trade proposal sucks.

* That is way too many home runs for a guy named Scooter.

Many asked: What about re-signing Neil Walker?

Lots of Walker questions this week in the wake of the Gregorius Tommy John surgery news. I thought there was a chance the Yankees would consider re-signing Walker even before Didi got hurt, and now that they need another middle infielder, a reunion seems more likely. It’s hard to see Walker getting a starting job at this point. A utility role seems to be his ticket to stay in the big leagues. Another one-year deal at $4M or so seems likely no matter where he signs. That’s the going rate for this role.

Walker had an up-and-down season and hit .219/.309/.354 (81 wRC+) in 398 plate appearances overall. He was much better when playing every day than as a part-timer. Perhaps he’ll be more comfortable in a part-time role going forward now that he’s experienced it? As for signing him to play second, it could work, I just worry about his defense. Walker doesn’t have much range and that’s kinda important at second. He does seem to have a knack for timely hits though, doesn’t he? That’s nice. I’m open to a Walker reunion. He wouldn’t be my Plan A as Didi’s replacement, but he would be in the mix.`

Ryan asks: How soon do we look for the Yankees to buyout Judge’s arb years and get a long term deal locked in? Is this winter too soon? Could next winter be a little late?

Honestly, I am totally cool with going year-to-year with Aaron Judge. He is an incredible player. Top ten in the world in my opinion. Plus he’s a great dude and a tremendous ambassador for the game. He’s going to represent the organization well and he’s someone you want young players looking up to, I think. The thing is, the Yankees have already have Judge under team control through his age 30 season, and how does he age at that size? He might be a first baseman/DH with a 33% strikeout rate by time he hits free agency.

What does an extension look like anyway? At his pace, Judge might get $50M total in his three arbitration years ($10M, $16M, $24M?). Doesn’t seem crazy to me. He already has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP runner-up, two All-Star Games, and a home run title. Would six years and $100M work right now? Something like $2M, $8M, $12M, $18M, $25M, $30M with the final $5M coming as part of a signing bonus/option buyout? That buys out two free agent years and takes Judge through his age 32 season. It’s worth considering, if you’re the Yankees. I don’t think going year-to-year with Judge would be unreasonable.

Ben asks: What is Ronald Torreyes’s role with the team going forward? He seemed to be more popular among Girardi’s people than with Boone’s. I like Toe and think he can be a good backup infielder but I’m not sure the team feels the same way. Is he back next year, in Triple-A, or let go?

I think Torreyes will be back next year as the up-and-down reserve infielder at worst. MLBTR projects a $900,000 salary next season and that shouldn’t be an issue for the Yankees. Signing a backup infielder in free agency probably costs you $1M to $2M, and that guy won’t be able to be sent to Triple-A. Torreyes has an option remaining and can go to Triple-A. I think he’s a great utility guy. I wouldn’t want Torreyes playing every day because he has no power, he doesn’t walk, and he doesn’t steal bases. He can play all around the infield and contact bomb pitchers. That’s about it. That works wonderfully as a utility guy. I know Torreyes is incredibly popular in the clubhouse. Sending him down this season was a front office decision, not a coaching staff decision. I think Torreyes will be in the mix for a bench job again going into next year. I don’t see the Yankees cutting ties this winter.

Anonymous asks: Brandon Belt. Should the Yanks target him? He would improve the defense, gets on base and lefty bat plays well in YS. Or are age and strikeouts a concern here?

I was thinking about Belt a few weeks ago. He’s had a bunch of injury problems over the years (multiple concussions, broken fingers from hit-by-pitches, a knee problem this year) and has only played 150 games once in the last five years, but he also has seasons with a 140 wRC+, a 132 wRC+, and a 136 wRC+. This past season he hit .253/.342/.414 (107 wRC+) with 14 homers, 23.5% strikeouts, and 10.7% walks in 112 games around knee trouble and an appendectomy.

Belt turns 31 in April (where does the time go?) and he has three years remaining on his contract at $16M per season. He is pretty much the player the Yankees hoped Greg Bird would become. Left-handed with power and walks at first base. Buster Posey had hip surgery a few weeks ago and he’s a soon to be 32-year-old catcher with a ton of innings on his legs. More first base time is in his future, inevitably. That could make Belt expendable, especially if the Giants want to shed some cash to get their luxury tax situation straight. Belt’s not perfect, but he could be available, and the Yankees should kick the tires if so.

Jim asks: How about a Sonny Gray/Joe Panik exchange?

I don’t think the framework is unreasonable. Panik has been hurt and kinda crummy the last three years, hitting .262/.325/.383 (90 wRC+) while starting 340 of 486 possible games from 2016-18. He has two years of control remaining whereas Gray has one. The Giants need pitching — the Giants need pretty much everything — and the biggest question is probably whether San Francisco is willing to trade two years of Panik for one year of Gray when they’re not certain to contend in 2019. The Yankees did ask for Panik in Andrew Miller trade talks a few years, so they’ve had interest in the past, plus he’d give them a contact heavy lefty bat to plug in at second base while Gregorius is injured. I think the Yankees would do it in a second. I’m not sure about the Giants.

Michael asks: Sonny Gray to the Giants for…Tony Watson? Watson is a poor man’s Britton, and while Britton is clearly better, Watson for 1/$3.5MM > Britton for 3/$50MM. Giants are gonna need arms and Gray will benefit from a big NL park. Sound good, or should the Yankees aim higher in terms of trade targets?

As with Panik, I think Gray-for-Watson would depend more on the Giants than the Yankees. I think the Yankees would do that in a heartbeat. They did have interest in Watson last winter and he’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. Couldn’t the Giants do better though? Watson has a very complicated contract that could max out at $14M from 2019-20. That’s still a really great price for a lefty who had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) with 27.6% strikeouts last season. Given the general demand for bullpen help these days, I feel like the Giants could fetch something better than one year of Gray for Watson. This seems like it’d be a really great get for the Yankees. I’d take Watson before Panik.

Keane asks: With a high strike out rate, low walk rate, but gives up a lot of hard contact is there any reason to think Corbin wouldn’t be Michael Pineda 2.0?

Fair question! Patrick Corbin throws a ton of sliders as well, like Pineda, and he also doesn’t have much of a changeup, like Pineda. Two key differences between the two. One, Corbin is left-handed and quality lefties are hard to find. And two, Corbin throws a sinker and is more of a true ground ball pitcher than Pineda. Pineda did post some surprisingly high ground ball rates with the Yankees (47.9% from 2015-17), but Corbin hasn’t had a sub-48.5% ground ball rate since returning from Tommy John surgery a few years ago. I don’t think Corbin is an ace and I get a feeling everyone expecting him to be an ace will end up disappointed. I do think he’s very good though, comfortably above-average, and the best starter on the free agent market. He’d undoubtedly make the Yankees better.

Chris asks: If Mike is right and the Yanks don’t offer Betances a longer-term extension, and assuming he stays healthy and has another year like this year, do they make a qualifying offer to him next year? The qualifying offer is set to be $17.9 million this offseason, but with some of the big dollar contracts likely to be awarded with this free agent class, I could see it getting well over $18 million – maybe approaching or even topping $20 million. Am I wrong?

The qualifying offer should jump over $18M next offseason, yeah. If Dellin Betances has another typical Dellin Betances season, meaning a sub-3.00 ERA with an insane strikeout total as a high-leverage guy, I think the Yankees would give him the qualifying offer. Chances are Betances would not beat $18M annually on his next contract, but I do think he’d net more than $18M total across multiple years, probably much more. He could get upwards of $40M on a multi-year deal. Next offseason figures to be his best chance to cash in big. I don’t see Betances getting cute and accepting the qualifying offer, taking the sky high one year salary, then jumping into free agency. It’s risky. He’ll go for the big multi-year contract instead. With a typical Dellin year, I think he gets the qualifying offer, yeah.

It has been an exceedingly busy year for Mike, due to his non-stop work here and his commitments over at CBS, so I figured that I’d try my hand at tackling your mailbag questions this week. As always, you can continue to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. Let’s do it to it.

Many asks: So what happens with Aaron Boone now?

As cliché as it may be to say this, I cannot help but feel that Boone is quite lucky that George Steinbrenner isn’t in charge nowadays. The Yankees did not execute well-enough to win a couple of close games, and the blowout loss was inexcusable on every level – but the manager’s job is to put his team in the best position to win, and Boone failed to do so in back-to-back games. And he failed spectacularly, too. I don’t think The Boss would have brought him back for another season.

With the current administration, however, I would be utterly shocked if Boone wasn’t back next season. Cashman and Co. clearly love his ability to manage interpersonal relationships in the clubhouse, and they knew the risks of hiring a manager straight out of the announcer’s booth. I’m sure that they’re disappointed, and I’m sure that Boone’s exit interview will focus quite a bit on his decision-making – but he’ll be on the Yankees bench next year, with no adjustments to his leash.

Segundo asks: Seeing Luke Voit playing with all this swagger is very refreshing. Can’t remember the last Yankee who played like this and was productive (Ricky Henderson?). I think he should get the first base job from day 1 next year. Thoughts? What do you think his numbers will look like if he gets 600 plate appearances

I’m a fan of Voit’s swagger, too, but I think you’re underselling this team as a whole. It comes in all shapes and sizes throughout the roster, but Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, CC Sabathia, and Ronald Torreyes all have quite a bit of swagger. Voit stands out, though, because he came out of nowhere with it – and he looks kind of like Billy Butler.

And I’d agree that he’s the best in-house option for first base as of today; I don’t think it’s possible for me to be more down on Greg Bird than I am right now. I wouldn’t expect Voit to do anything remotely close to what he did this year, though. I think the best-case scenario is probably something along the lines of what Justin Smoak did this year – .250/.350/.460 with 25 home runs or so. I’d take that in a heartbeat.

Kelan asks: You mentioned potentially upgrading the corner infield defense this offseason. Outside of maybe the obvious, sign Machado and either trade Andujar or maybe try him at first, what do you see as the most realistic options?

I’ll answer this with two caveats. The first is obvious – I’m not Mike. I’m sure that our ideas would be similar, given the available options, but it’s possible he’d go in an entirely different direction. And the second caveat? I’d give Andujar at least one more season to work on his defense. The tools are there, and he’ll be 24 for the entire 2019 season; I don’t think moving several pieces around is a necessity.

That being said, I’m not sure that there’s a great free agent option for the hot corner outside of Machado. As of this morning, these are the top-five non-Machado third basemen that are slated for free agency:

• Adrian Beltre
• Josh Donaldson
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Jed Lowrie
• Mike Moustakas

I think Beltre (nearly 40 and may be retiring), Gonzalez (more of a utility player), and Lowrie (nearly 35 and best-suited for second) can be ruled out right away. And I don’t see Moustakas as a clear enough upgrade defensively to make a move. Donaldson is interesting, though. I’m not incredibly enthusiastic about his age or his injuries these last two seasons, but his defense is still strong and he’s a helluva hitter. If the price was right, I think he’s the sort of player that you can make think about moving Andujar for.

Nicholas asks: This may be a little pedantic on my part, but isn’t Kahnle’s problems more due to a lack of separation between his fastball and changeup? Last year he was throwing around 99 with a 90 changeup-this year it looks like his fastball regressed to around 95 but his changeup stayed the same. I think a lack of separation with his changeup is an easier fix than expecting the fastball to return.

The separation between his fastball and change-up actually didn’t change all that much. Check it out:

Kahnle’s velocity was down across the board. The difference between his fastball and change-up was 7.4 MPH in 2017 and 6.7 MPH this year. That’s certainly enough that you can’t just hand-wave it away, but I’m not sure that it’s enough to draw anything conclusive from. What stands out the most for me in terms of his pitches is actually the distribution. In 2017, Kahnle threw 65.6% fastballs, 23.9% change-ups, and 10.5% sliders; those numbers this year were 54.3%, 40.3%, and 5.4%, respectively.

Batters hit .383 (!) with a .660 SLG (!!) against his fastball, so there was definitely something going on. The vertical and horizontal movement on his fastball were virtually unchanged; the spin rate did drop from 2287 RPM to 2223 – but that’s not a massive difference. Putting all of those factors together, though, might lead you to your answer.

Consider this, though: Kahnle’s walk rate doubled in 2018, from 6.6% to 14.0%. He was pitching with a lot of base-runners, and most every pitcher is worse out of the stretch. I think that may’ve been his biggest issue.

Scott asks: Hey guys, thanks again for all of your work. The yanks have long since avoided signing players to extensions before free agency (with some exception), but I wanted to get your thoughts on a Torres extension. It might rub players like Judge, Didi, and Sanchez the wrong way, but those guys have different circumstances (Judge is under control until his 30’s, Sanchez underperformed this year, Didi has a replacement in Torres). Most folks believe Torres is a bonafide above average starter at a middle infield position who I believe the yanks have under control for 4 more seasons (maybe 3). Do you think it would be crazy to offer him 6 years at 10mm per? Kingery signed for 6/42, I assume that sets the baseline. Curious as to what you guys think, thanks again.

When Scott Kingery signed his deal, he was a 23-year-old prospect that had never played in the majors; Gleyber Torres is a 21-year-old player coming off of an excellent rookie season. I think that comparison may have worked six months ago, but it doesn’t work that well now. Torres may not be a completely known commodity now, but he’s proven to be – at worst – a solid regular at the highest level.

I think you’d have to look at the deals of players that signed after a strong rookie season; that list includes names like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons. If we average their contracts, we get a baseline of 6.7 years and $42.75 MM. Round that to 7-years and $43 MM, and the Yankees would be crazy to say no – but all of those deals were inked between 2008 and 2015, and prices have gone up.

I don’t think it would be crazy to buy out Torres’s remaining team control years (and tack on some post-team control option years) for something like $10 MM a year. He could fail to improve a lick over the next half-dozen years and he’d still be worth a contract of that nature. I’d be all over it.

Luke asks: How about Eric Kratz having himself an NLDS series for Milwaukee. If we lose to the Sox, what other notable ex-Yankees do we have to root for in the rest of the playoffs?

The championship series have been set at this point, with the Red Sox vs. the Astros in the AL, and the Dodgers vs. the Brewers in the NL. Going team-by-team, we have:

• Boston – Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce (lest we forget his 12 game cameo in 2012)
• Houston – Brian McCann
• Los Angeles – Rich Hill (5.1 IP in 2014)
• Milwaukee – Erik Kratz, Curtis Granderson

Tom asks: What do u prefer and what do you think the yankees prefer of the 3 options for LF: 1. Sign a FA 2. Clint Frazier 3. Stanton becomes regular LFer, Andujar to DH, sign Machado thus solving LF & 3b defense

I think the Yankees would prefer two, or the first portion of three; that is, Stanton becomes the everyday left-fielder. I don’t know if I’m being pragmatic, pessimistic, or just completely out there, but I’m not too sure that they’re planning on making a splash on the position player side of things. Pitching feels like a much bigger priority, given the paucity of in-house options under team control.

And I’m a fan of the Yankees spending money, so I would love to see Machado manning the hot corner next season. That would mean moving Andujar to another position (first base or DH), but I’m fine with that for a player of Machado’s quality. But I also wouldn’t mind the Yankees signing Bryce Harper, sticking with Stanton at DH (or keeping that revolving door going), and giving Andujar more time to figure things out as I said above.