I have been thinking about some of the traditional nuggets of baseball wisdom and trying to put them to the test. I am not savvy enough to do this in a statistically rigorous way, but I think we can look critically at some adages and see if they stand the test of time.

Cliché: “Good pitching beats good hitting.”
Verdict: True
Why: If you think about it, a truly good (starting) pitcher has the ability to get through the lineup multiple times without allowing many baserunners or runs. If a pitcher is incapable of retiring the best hitters (say, 1 or 2 through 5 in an order), he will inevitably run into problem innings. It is difficult to regularly produce quality starts while getting hit hard a few innings per game. Thus, a good pitcher is expected to be able to retire all but the most potent of hitters (e.g. Barry Bonds ca. 2004).
As for hitters, even the best are not expected to be able to turn on a nasty pitcher’s nastiest stuff. It is satisfactory (and often even preferable) for a hitter to leave his mark in the later innings, when the starter begins to fatigue or the (presumably less nasty) bullpen pitchers make their appearances. Nobody would point to a top flight batter and complain that his production is low in the third or fourth inning, when an ace is likely to have already settled into his groove.

This entry was posted on Monday, May 5th, 2008 at 7:22 pm and is filed under Platitudes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.